NFL Odds & Picks for Every Week 12 Sunday Afternoon Game

NFL Odds & Picks for Week 12

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Buccaneers vs.

Browns

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Ricky Henne: What do you do in a game that has few clear-cut advantages?

You obviously back Brady.

As Evan Abrams pointed out earlier this week, Brady is 8-3 against the spread on the road in his career following the bye. He’s also 35-19-4 ATS on extended rest over his career.

Meanwhile, an offensive line that struggles in the run game has been lights out in pass protection. The Buccaneers have surrendered the fewest sacks in the NFL (14) and boast the best adjusted sack rate. As such, Brady’s 2.43 seconds to throw is tops in the league. That should come in handy against a Cleveland team with the fourth-highest hurry percentage per drop back.

I expect a relatively close game but also see a path to Tampa Bay blowing the Browns out of the water if Chubb can’t get going. The Bucs allow the fourth-fewest points per game in the league (18.9). Without an effective Chubb, Cleveland will be forced to rely on Brissett carving up the league’s sixth-best defense in passing DVOA (-9.9%). I don’t like the Browns' chances to cover in that scenario, which is why I’m willing to move the line for the potential extra payout.

Pick: Buccaneers -3.5

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Bengals vs.

Titans

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

John LanFranca:I hardly ever recommend teasers with the cost of the juice it takes to play them these days. However, in this spot, a seven-point teaser would get us through several key numbers.

Teasing the Titans gets us through the key numbers of 3,4 and 7. Teasing the total down to 36.5 gets us through the key numbers of 43,41 and 37. Both passing offenses will have success on Sunday and redzone possessions will end up hitting paydirt instead of settling for field goals. Tease the Titans and the over in this pivotal AFC matchup.

Pick: Tease Titans +9.5 / Over 36.5 | Bet to 8.5 / Over 37

Texans vs.

Dolphins

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Phillip Kall:The Dolphins have been an offense wrecking ball recently, but a two-touchdown spread is a lot to cover. On the year, they have only covered that amount once, and that includes recent games against Pittsburgh, Detroit and Chicago. 

The over looks to be the way to go in this one — it has hit in each of the Dolphins' last three games. The addition of Wilson has given Miami a way to create offense on the ground. When throwing, no team has had an answer this season. They are also coming off a bye so McDaniel had an extra week to prepare.

For Houston, starting Allen simply increases its offensive variance. If that plays out to the positive, the Texans will score more and force Miami to play aggressively offensively. If that plays out to the negative, they will be giving more opportunities to Miami and creating opportunities for some garbage time scoring.

Either scenario plays to the over. Trust Miami to keep producing points and Houston to score in garbage time to cover the over.

Pick: Over 46.5 | Bet to 48.5

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Bears vs.

Jets

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Great Foosini: Interestingly enough, we have seen the Jets play against a terrible defensive squad and a backup behind center. This came against the Dolphins, where the Jets had a field day (no pun intended) on both sides of the ball, demolishing the Skylar Thompson led team 40-17. This is an extremely strong and relevant corollary to this Sunday's game.

Furthermore, if we look at points spreads for common opponents, we see Patriots were 3- and 3.5-point favorites against the Jets, and were -8.5 at home against Chicago. Of course, those lines and views changed as Fields solidified himself as a potential star, and the Jets beat Buffalo.

Regardless, if we're calling the Patriots 2-5 points better than the Jets, and 5-6 better than the Bears, then we should see the Jets as at least a 3.5 to 4 point favorite over Chicago.

Add in the Trevor Siemian bit, and this spread could justifiably be a touchdown.

Pick: Jets -6.5

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Falcons vs.

Commanders

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Blake Krass: This game seems like a virtual coin flip. That creates value with the Falcons catching points, especially with how well they have done in backdoor situations this season.

The Falcons have done some of the little things that make the difference in covering games better than the Commanders this season. Taylor Heinicke has clearly been good for the Commanders' locker room, but statistically, he is not doing anything crazy. He won't be able to take advantage of this Falcons secondary like other quarterbacks.

I think this game could come down to a field goal in either direction.

Pick: Falcons +3.5

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Broncos vs.

Panthers

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Dylan Wilkerson:The Panthers are trying to set themselves up for success in the future. This is not necessarily a bad thing and while it may be painful for Carolina fans, it could be worth it down the road.

However, throwing Darnold out on the field against one of the best pass defenses in the league seems like cruel and unusual punishment. I am not sure what Darnold did to deserve this, but I will be betting on him to have a slow day.

Use our Action Labs Player Props tool to make sure you get the best number on Darnold's passing yards.

Pick: Sam Darnold Under 182.5 passing yards | Bet to 165.5

Ravens vs.

Jaguars

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Landon Silinsky:This matchup is a bit tricky, as both defenses are best at defending the opposing team's biggest strength, the running game. The Jaguars are quite susceptible to passing game production, but Baltimore has had virtually no success in that department since Bateman went down. Ultimately, the Jaguars are the healthier team, and are playing at home coming off a bye.

My initial lean was to side with the home dog, but being that both teams could have trouble moving the ball on the ground, it could lead to a bit of a back-and-forth affair with more pass attempts than anticipated. Andrews being healthy makes a massive difference for Baltimore and he should be back to wreaking havoc this week.

This very much has the feel of a 24-21 type game, so give me the over in this spot.

Pick: Over 43.5 | Bet to 44

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Chargers vs.

Cardinals

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Ricky Henne: Let’s be blunt: It’s impossible to trust either team. I have the slightest of leans toward the Chargers, but when push comes to shove, I simply can’t do it. They may be 5-0 ATS on the road, but the Bolts haven’t won a game by more than three since Week 5.

Moreover, I just can’t pull the trigger after watching them in the second half of games. Los Angeles looks like world-beaters in the first, then turns into a pumpkin after halftime.  The Chargers score the third-most points over the first thirty minutes (15.2 ppg), but the coaches struggle adjusting in the second as they rank 28th (7.2).

The opposite is true of the Cardinals.  They’re the eighth-worst offense in the first half (9.2) but eighth-best in the second (12.1).

Add it all up and I’m rolling with the Bolts winning the first half. My main debate is taking them ATS or straight-up, but the odds are close enough that I’m taking the latter.

Pick: Chargers 1H ML

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Raiders vs.

Seahawks

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Sam Farley: You've probably realized at this point that Kenneth Walker III's name hasn't been mentioned at all, which is because it's down here in the pick section.

Walker has been incredible this season, taking advantage of another Rashaad Penny injury to grab that bellcow role and take over the Seahawks backfield. He's the clear offensive rookie of the year frontrunner, having scored seven touchdowns and rushed for just shy of 600 yards.

Walker's line for this game stands at 75.5 yards at PointsBet against a team that has allowed an average of 122.9 rushing yards per game. He's exceeded 75.5 rushing yards in four of his past six games and coming into this one fresh off the bye, you can be confident that he'll have another big day on the ground.

This number is on the rise, though, so be sure to grab the best number possible. Use the Action Labs Player Props tool to shop around.

Pick: Kenneth Walker Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-114) | Bet to 78.5

Rams vs.

Chiefs

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

John LanFranca:The Chiefs team total of 28.5 feels rather low in this game, and I wouldn’t blame anybody for attacking this game in that manner. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in three of their past six games, and this is one of the easier matchups they will get all season.

In the three games under Mahomes that the Chiefs have closed greater than a two–touchdown favorite, KC has averaged 32 points per game.

In his career, Andy Reid is 4-1 against the spread in games where his team is favored by 14.5 points or greater. Since 2003, teams with an 80% win percentage or greater are 23-11-2 (67.6%) against the spread when they are favored by more than two touchdowns.

The Rams offensive line is outmatched and their pass defense has no chance of slowing down the red-hot Kansas City offense. The Rams have the worst against the spread margin (8.3 points per game) in the NFL this season and they simply do not have the firepower to even make this game close.

Lay the points with the Chiefs and enjoy the show on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: Chiefs -15.5 | Bet to -16.5

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Saints vs.

49ers

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Cody Goggin:I don’t love laying nine points in the NFL on a big favorite, but this 49ers team just has a ton of personnel and schematic advantages on the Saints, especially in the trenches.

This trench battle is going to make things difficult for Dalton and the Saints all day long, leading to plenty of chances for San Francisco to score and cover this spread.

Pick: 49ers -8.5 (bet to -10)

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