NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expert Previews For Cardinals-Cowboys, Texans-49ers, Panthers-Saints, Every Game

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Broncos at Chargers Odds

Michael Arinze: I'm not expecting a whole lot out of Lock in this spot. In Week 16, he completed 15 of his 22 pass attempts for 153 yards. The fact that he threw the ball only 22 times suggests that the Broncos aren't necessarily ready to hand him the keys to the offense.

Denver ended up losing the game to Las Vegas, 17-13, despite having a 3:0 edge in turnover margin.

When I saw this matchup on my card, I was all set to make a case for the under with it being a divisional game. However, after studying the rosters and seeing which players are available and who is ruled out, I realized that this handicap should solely focus on the injury report.

The motivation edge, which favors the Chargers, should also be factored in.

Historically, this is a great spot to back Los Angeles to get off to a fast start. In the first half, the Chargers are 7-2 against the spread (ATS) as a back-to-back favorite off a double digit loss, per our Action Labs data:

The Chargers are also 14-4-2 ATS in the first half as a favorite against the Broncos:

BetMGM is offering the best price on the board as of writing, with Los Angeles laying -3.5 in the first half. I would play this number up to -4.

Pick: Chargers 1H -3.5 | Bet to: -4

Texans at 49ers Odds

Michael Arinze: I mentioned in my opening that I felt the bookmakers hung a lousy line for this game.

For some reason, perhaps more than ever this year, it seems there's been a bit of a rush with sportsbooks to make their lines available to the public. While the increased competition for customers and market share could provide a clue, the reality is that we continue to see more lineup changes due to injuries and COVID-19 than ever before.

As a result, it might be harder for sportsbooks to be even more aggressive with their line adjustments while not leaving themselves vulnerable to a middle job by savvy bettors. That's why I don't think we've gotten as much line movement for this game on Sunday.

Even though Jimmy Garoppolo receives a ton of criticism, I think he's worth a bit more to the point spread than the 2.5- to 3-point adjustment. Thus, I think the Texans have value as 12.5-point underdogs.

Since 2019, road teams facing a non-conference opponent after covering a spread by at least 25 points are 6-1 ATS for 4.89 units.

That's the direction I'll be leaning in as I plan to take the points with the visiting Texans.

Pick: Texans +12.5 | Bet to: +12

Cardinals at Cowboys Odds

Raheem Palmer: The Cardinals are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season, while the Cowboys have been a covering machine at 12-3 ATS.

While this spread may look inflated compared to the lookahead number, I beg to differ. Using full-season priors, it is, but it's clear that the full season isn't indicative of what this Cardinals team is at this present moment.

As the Cardinals limp into the postseason, we could looking back on this team the same way we did last season's Steelers, who started 11-0 before losing four out of their last five games and subsequently getting eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

Given the struggles of the Arizona defense and its inability to stop the run, I don't see this team keeping up with Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense. Lay the points with the Cowboys.

Pick: Cowboys -5.5 | Bet to: -6

Panthers at Saints Odds

Phillip Kall: Trusting either of these teams is a major risk given the current state of their offenses. Rather than do so, we will turn to the total.

Both teams have struggled to throw in recent weeks and utilize their quarterbacks as running options. This heavy preference toward the ground game should keep the clock moving and shorten the game. Plus, with both teams following this style of offense, there is no need to fear one team getting a large lead and the other playing catchup.

The Saints' offense under Hill has only one game in which it broke 20 points. That came against the Jets and required a 44-yard touchdown run by Hill as the Saints were bleeding the clock. I'm with oddsmakers when they favor New Orleans, but a low-ceiling offense covering -6.5 is a stretch.

Trust the Saints and Panthers to run the ball and play good defense in this one.

Pick: Under 38 | Bet to: 37.5

Lions at Seahawks Odds

Billy Ward: Detroit is one of the better teams against the spread this season. In a way, Dan Campbell is the ideal coach for spread bettors. He almost always has the Lions prepared and playing hard against tough competition. However, his late-game management leaves something to be desired, resulting in a lot of covers that could have been outright wins.

Unfortunately, with Goff doubtful, I'll be shying away from this spread. (Though if we get late news that Goff is active, I'll be taking the Lions +7.5 or better.)

With the Lions likely to turn to Boyle, I'm seeing more value on the under. These teams have combined to score 37.7 points per game — and that's under better circumstances. In addition to their quarterback (and tight end) situation, there's some moderately impactful weather expected in Seattle. Current reports have wind gusts expected in the mid-teens and a high chance of rain.

Pick: Under 41.5 | Bet to: 40.5

Editor's note: The following previews were for games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Rams at Ravens Odds

Michael Arinze: It's tough to dig deeper into the on-field analysis of both teams without knowing who will start at quarterback for the Ravens.

After watching the footage of Lamar Jackson hobbling around, I'm convinced that I don't want any part of Baltimore if he starts. I'm also less interested in backing Baltimore, given its depleted secondary.

However, the reason I still want the Ravens to have a chance at the playoffs even if they lose on Sunday has to do with not wanting to fade them in a win-or-go-home scenario.

Usually, the Ravens can count on inclement weather for a critical January home game, but it looks like it'll be around 61 degrees in Baltimore at kickoff. That won't nearly be enough to bother Matthew Stafford and the West Coast Rams.

In fact, under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams are 10-4 ATS for 5.59 units when playing in the Eastern time zone.

However, given the uncertainty of who the Ravens will start at quarterback, I'm not rushing to the window to lay 5.5 points with the Rams.

I think it would behoove Baltimore to start Tyler Huntley in this game. And if the Ravens choose to do so, it wouldn't surprise me if the back door is left slightly ajar toward the end of the game.

As a result, I'd prefer to play the Rams as part of a two-team 6.5-point teaser. I'd pair them with the Steelers, who are getting 3.5 points at home against the Browns.

Pick: Two-Team 6.5-Point Teaser (-120) — Rams +1 & Steelers +10

Falcons at Bills Odds

Phillip Kall: At 7-8, the Falcons might be the most fortunate team in the NFL to have the record they do. Even in the games they won, it looks like they do their best to give the other team a chance. Their point differential sits at -122, only better than the Lions, Texans, Jaguar and Jets — all teams with at least three fewer wins. With their offense lacking its early-season pop, that number is likely to get worse.

The Bills, though, have the best point differential in the league, despite having two or three fewer wins than the league leaders. The key to that success has been the complete annihilation of weaker teams. Buffalo has seven wins this season by at least 17 points. Its air-tight pass defense along with an explosive offense has been the recipe to these victories.

While the defense has lost a bit due to Tre’Davious White’s absence, the offense has been on point. Even without its second, third and fourth receiver last week against the Patriots, Buffalo was unstoppable.

Trust the Bills to continue smashing weaker opponents and the Falcons to continue struggling against tough ones.

Pick: Bills -14.5 | Bet to: -16.5

Giants at Bears Odds

Anthony Dabbundo: It's hard to imagine how the Bears are laying six against almost anyone in the NFL, even at home. But given how bad Mike Glennon has been, you should expect the Bears to get at least one takeaway.

Even despite this, the Bears have a lame-duck coach at home and no objective power rating has them at least four points better than the Giants on a neutral field. It's not clear what home-field advantage the Bears will even have given the fanbase's disdain for the team right now. I can't get to the number on this game at all, but I also don't trust Glennon to cover any type of spread under a touchdown given his turnover issues.

For that reason, I'm targeting the total in this game. Even with the lowest total of the year, the Bears' futile red-zone offense and Giants' ineptitude to score any points outside of garbage time makes this a prime under spot.

There shouldn't be much of a blowout for the Bears to lighten up on defense and let Glennon score late, and Chicago's run offense should bleed the clock in the second half when leading.

Pick: Under 37  | Bet to: 37

Chiefs at Bengals Odds

Brandon Anderson: The Chiefs are battle-tested. This team was counted out early when the defense wasn't good enough, but Kansas City has rebuilt itself midseason with a very good defense, an offense that's changing with the times and continued elite special teams and coaching.

Kansas City is the finest team the Bengals will play all season. Cincinnati has not played a team currently among the top-eight DVOA teams all year. The best opponent the Bengals faced, the Packers, largely dominated Cincinnati most of the game, out-gaining the Bengals by 100 yards and only leaving things to overtime because of a comedy of field goal errors, a late touchdown and two-point conversion allowed.

The Bengals are the hot team, and the line is moving in Cincinnati's favor as money comes in on the home team. But I'm going to have to see it to believe it.

This is effectively a playoff game. The Chiefs want to stay hot and keep the 1-seed and secure the bye. We know Kansas City shows up for these monster games against good opponents — we've seen it for years now. We don't know what the Bengals look like in a game of this caliber against this good an opponent. I have to trust the team that's proven trustworthy, especially with the line moving in our favor.

I'll bet the Chiefs to win and cover, even on the road against a tough Cincy team. I'll play Kansas City to -5.5 if necessary. The Bengals need to prove it.

Pick: Chiefs -4.5 | Bet to: -5.5

Raiders at Colts Odds

Mike Randle: Indianapolis is 10-5 overall against the spread (ATS) but just 4-4 at home. Las Vegas is 6-9 ATS, but 3-4 on the road.

If Carson Wentz somehow isn't fully cleared on Sunday and Sam Ehlinger is ruled as the starter, I am grabbing the seven points with Las Vegas. While the Raiders have not been impressive, the conservative Indianapolis play-calling and snail's pace should keep this game close.

If Wentz is the starter — which is looking more likely — I am not betting this spread. I believe in his ability to connect with leading receiver Michael Pittman and would not want to bet against a Colts team that is one of the NFL's hottest squads at the moment.

In both scenarios, I am gladly taking the under 44.5-point total. I believe the Las Vegas defense should somewhat limit Jonathan Taylor, keeping this total low.

Pick: Under 44.5 | Bet to: Under 44

Jaguars at Patriots Odds

Mike Vitanza: In a game that the Patriots are expected to run away with, there’s one main question to consider when evaluating a potential over bet on this low 41.5-point total: Can the Jaguars score enough to put the over in play?

While it hasn’t been pretty, this Jaguars team has managed to squeeze out an average of 14.5 points per game all season and an average of 18.5 points over their last two. Their opponents in those last two were the Texans and Jets, both far inferior defenses to the Patriots, but the point remains that the Jaguars have been able to find the end zone lately.

On the other side, the Patriots should be able to score at will against this 30th-ranked Jaguars defense. Not only does a red-hot Harris get a strong matchup against this 16th-ranked unit, but Jones — and his top receiving options — all have superb individual matchups as well.

Plus, with the Jaguars' propensity for the turnover (their -19 turnover differential ratio is the worst in the NFL), a strong possibility of points via turnover exists for the Patriots' defense as well.

In a game with a total as low as 41.5, we don’t need much from the Jaguars to put this over in play. Its implied total of 12.8 points becomes very attainable, particularly if the Patriots get up big early and we see softer zone coverage for the majority of the second half. It's also likely we see the Patriots exceed their 29.3 implied team total in this one given the porous nature of this Jaguars defense.

I would advise waiting this one out to see if the total drops down to the key number of 41, but I do still think the current number offers some value. I don’t see the total increasing much from here, but I’d play the over up to 43 if things were to shift prior to kickoff.

Pick: Over 41.5 | Bet to: Over 43

Bucs at Jets Odds

Mike Randle: It's hard to make an argument for a Jets team that is playing poorly on defense and has extensive losses on offense. New York is just 5-10 against the spread, and I believe Tom Brady continues his long-documented dominance over his former AFC East rival here.

Pick: Bucs -13 | Bet to: -13.5

Dolphins at Titans Odds

Billy Ward: The notable thing in analyzing this game for me was how hard it will be for both teams to catch up if they fall behind. Both teams have strong defenses, particularly against the pass. They both feature strong pass rushes and do well at defending deep plays. That leads to a few possible betting situations.

First, "team that scores first wins" is -200 at BetMGM. That's solid, particularly given the low total in this one. (Higher-scoring games lead to more opportunities for either team to come back.) However, we can do better.

Perusing the DraftKings menu, I noticed a similar prop. However, DraftKings forces you to pick a team. Their pricing is much better, though, with Miami to score first and win at +310, and Tennessee at +135. That means we can bet 0.75 of a unit on the Titans, and 0.33 of a unit on Miami to win a unit if the team that scores first wins. That's a risk of 1.08 units to win one, compared to risking two on BetMGM for the same payout. Of course, feel free to bet one team or the other if you have a strong lean on who will win.

Picks: Titans to score first and win +135 (0.75 units), Dolphins to score first and win +310 (0.33 units) | Bet to: Combined odds of -110

Eagles at Washington Odds

Mike Vitanza: If you’ve watched any Eagles games this season, there’s one thing that becomes abundantly clear in short order: This Eagles offense is a run-first team. Not only do they lead the league in rush attempts on the season with 32.3 per game, but they also have a quarterback in Jalen Hurts who is most effective when scrambling and taking the ball down the field with his legs.

Unsurprisingly, defenses have been loading up the box frequently against this offense, which has opened things up in the middle of the field for tight end Dallas Goedert. Goedert has been on a tear lately, averaging 89 receiving yards per game over his last three, including a seven-catch, 135-yard performance against this same Washington team just two weeks ago. He’s also been one of Hurts’ favorite targets over this stretch, averaging 6.3 targets per game over that span.

When taking into consideration both his success in this same matchup and recent usage trends, his current receiving prop of 54.5 yards offers substantial value this week. If we zoom out a bit and look at the entire season (part of which also included Zach Ertz stealing targets), we also see that Goedert has already exceeded this total in seven games thus far and in three of his last four outings.

I’m hitting the over on this Goedert prop and would be comfortable playing it all the way up to 60.5 if the line shifts prior to kickoff.

Pick: Dallas Goedert Over 54.5 Receiving Yards| Bet to: Over 60.5