NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
WFT-Eagles Odds, Pick
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Billy Ward: These teams combine to score, and allow, between 46-47 points per game. The total for one is as low as 41 (check real-time NFL odds here), which is understandable given Washington's quarterback situation.
Garret Gilbert was just signed from the Patriots practice squad and is expected to get the start. However, Gilbert played under Ron Rivera in Carolina and is reportedly very familiar with this offense. That's not to say he won't be a downgrade compared to Taylor Heinicke, but likely not as large of a downgrade as we'd normally expect.
Washington's defense — particularly its secondary — was also badly hit by the team's COVID outbreak. That's not enough to totally account for the scoring loss of playing with a fourth-string quarterback, but it certainly helps.
The Eagles have topped 30 points themselves in three of their last four games, and could certainly repeat that against a depleted Washington defense.
This total has crept as high as 42 from the 41.5 that was hung when the game first moved to Tuesday, but I would take this up to 42.5 points.
Seahawks-Rams Odds, Pick
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Michael Arinze: I spent much of my Tuesday morning unsuccessfully trying to make a case against the Rams. While their recent 30-23 road victory over the Cardinals might seem impressive, Arizona out-gained Los Angeles by almost 100 yards. As a result, I'm not entirely convinced about the Rams just yet. But as much as I'd like to fade them against the Seahawks, I can't overlook the likely absence of Tyler Lockett (reserve/COVID list).
The former Kansas State product leads the Seahawks by almost 300 receiving yards. His average of 78.7 receiving yards per game is also a team-high despite having just one more target (93) than D.K. Metcalf. Metcalf has 753 receiving yards, 534 more yards than Freddie Swain, who will likely replace Lockett in the lineup.
The problem for the Seahawks is that the Rams will have Jalen Ramsey back on the field after he cleared the league's COVID protocols. That means they'll be able to design a game plan that will center on shutting Metcalf down without having to worry about Lockett as a downfield threat. Seattle ranks seventh in explosive pass rate, but it's often Lockett who is stretching the field. Thus, I suspect that the Seahawks offense will struggle without him.
I hate laying a ton of points like this in the NFL, but December is one month that's proven to be profitable to do that. Historically, teams above .500 that are laying at least 6.5 points against opponents below .500 are 168-151-9 against the spread (ATS) for +13.44 units in December, per Action Labs:
This season, teams are 12-2 for +8.82 units in this spot.
With the Rams having a clear advantage in personnel on the field, I'll risk a half-unit of my bankroll and play them at -6.5, which is still available at DraftKings as of noon ET on Tuesday — though I would play this number up to -7 (shop for the best real-time line here).
