Chiefs vs. Broncos Predictions, Picks, Odds
| Pick |
|---|
| Broncos +9.5 |
| Broncos ALT Line +10.5 (-135) |
Broncos +9.5
Chris Raybon: The Chiefs are coming off two convincing wins — a 41-14 shellacking of the Raiders and a sound 19-9 victory over the Cowboys — and are coming off a bye, where Andy Reid is 16-11 (59%) against the spread (ATS) in his career, so the market is showing the Chiefs a lot of love with a 9.5-point spread.
However, 9.5 points is a lot for a team that has won by double digits in just four of its past 18 regular-season games dating back to last season (excluding a meaningless Week 17 contest against the Chargers).
The Broncos were built with knocking off the Chiefs specifically in mind, and it starts with Teddy Bridgewater, who has been far better on the road in his career than Reid has been with extra time to prepare.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are just 6-15 (29%) ATS as a favorite since the middle of last season and including the playoffs.
The Chiefs have won by double digits in just four of their last 18 games, so it’s no surprise they struggle to cover when favored by a TD or more. How bad has it been? In their last eight games when favored by seven or more dating back to last season, the Chiefs are 0-8 ATS.
I’d play this to Broncos +8. You can read my entire breakdown of this matchup here.
Broncos ALT Line +10.5 (-135)
Michael Arinze: If anyone can devise a plan to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, it's Broncos head coach Vic Fangio. Fangio is the originator of the two-high safety look that's taken the NFL by storm over the past few seasons. With this scheme, he can disguise his coverage while still allowing the opportunity to rotate into a single-high look.
The system pretty much begs opponents to run the ball, which tends to lead to negative expected points added (EPA) plays compared to when the opposition throws the football. His goal is to limit the opposing team's ability to create explosive plays on offense.
This is precisely how the Broncos managed to hold the Cowboys scoreless for 53 minutes in Week 9. If done successfully, you force elite teams to drive the length of the field and earn their points inside the red zone. Per TeamRankings, the Broncos rank 10th in allowing opponents red-zone touchdowns (54.17%). In contrast, the Chiefs rank 16th with a red-zone scoring rate of 59.52%.
This line seems a bit high, particularly for a divisional game.
Our Action Labs database shows that AFC West teams that are at least 9.5-point underdogs are 56-39-3 for 12.55 units in this spot. But if I'm being honest, I'd like the Broncos even more if I could grab them at double digits.
BetMGM has alternate spreads on this game, and with Denver available at +10.5 (-135) — that’s a wager that's more to my liking. I would play the Broncos on the alternate line at +10 or better.
