Cowboys vs. Washington Odds, Predictions, Picks: Dallas Has Get-Right Spot In NFC East Showdown For NFL Week 14

Cowboys vs. Washington Odds

As recently as one month ago, it didn't look like this game would mean much. The Cowboys entered November 6-1, looking like they were coasting toward the NFC East title and a possible No. 1 seed.

My, how things have changed.

Dallas went 1-3 in November and struggled to score in a couple of the games. Suddenly, two division contenders have emerged. The Eagles have won four of six to get back close to .500, and Washington has won four straight to get to 6-6.

Suddenly no one wants to face the Washington Football Team, a team that actually controls its own destiny in the NFC East since these teams play twice in the next three weeks. Also, Washington only plays divisional opponents the rest of the season.

Win out, and the Washington Football Team win the NFC East.

So with the Cowboys reeling a bit and the Football Team red hot, where's the edge?

Cowboys vs. Washington Matchup

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Healthy Cowboys Poised to Rebound

It's true that Dallas had a rough November, but it's important not to take too myopic a view on this team.

Remember, Dallas is a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread (ATS) against the NFC this season, and it's 2-0 against NFC East foes.

Yes, Dallas has struggled since October. The Cowboys offense ranks only 21st in Expected Points Added (EPA) over the past six weeks and just 29th in Success Rate, per RBSDM. Dak Prescott's metrics rank very poorly over that stretch, including bottom five in EPA + Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE).

Should that really have been so surprising? Remember, Prescott missed the Halloween win over the Vikings and was clearly playing through injury and rust the following week against Denver. Left tackle Tyron Smith missed that Broncos game and the following two, and the Cowboys were without CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper for most of Weeks 11 and 12.

All of that was included in that November downswing, but it's also all in the past now. All those players are healthy as Dallas looks ready to return to its early-season form.

This is still one of the best teams in the NFL, which is backed up by its DVOA rankings. The Cowboys still look like Super Bowl contenders.

Just How Good is Washington?

Washington has won four in a row and become the proverbial "team no one wants to play," but a closer look makes things a little less exciting.

Washington won its last two games 17-15, both of which went to the wire and could have gone either way against the Seahawks and Raiders — below-average teams that aren't expected to make the playoffs. Before those wins was a one-score win over Carolina and the corpse of Cam Newton.

That's three coin-flip wins over mediocre-at best-teams. Is that really impressive?

I would actually argue it's not and that maybe we should think less of Washington after them. If a team plays three straight coin-flip games against below-average opponents, isn't the most logical conclusion that that team is also pretty mediocre?

Football Outsiders uses a stat called Weighted DVOA to rank teams late in the season, giving more weight to the more recent games. In theory, a hot team should be higher in Weighted DVOA.

Washington actually ranks lower in Weighted DVOA (22nd) compared to the entire season (21st). That's because DVOA takes strength of schedule into account, and it knows those three wins don't really move the needle.

Taylor Heinicke has been playing outstandingly of late. He leads the league in CPOE over the past six weeks and is second in EPA + CPOE at RBSDM. Washington Football Team rank third in passing EPA during that stretch and sixth overall offensively.

Washington's defense still hasn't been good, especially against the pass. The pass rush isn't getting home without Chase Young and Montez Sweat, and that should set Prescott up for a possible get-right game. Washington has been horrendous on third down, so it might struggle to get off the field.

Injuries are a concern on offense as well. Washington is missing its right tackle and is down to its third-string center. Tight end Logan Thomas is out along with pass-catching back J.D. McKissic, while running back Antonio Gibson has been playing hurt. And don't forget, Heinicke is technically the backup too.

Good for Washington for turning its season around, but with four games over the next four weeks against the Cowboys and Eagles, life is about to get a whole lot tougher. Washington needs to prove it's ready for the step up in competition.

Cowboys vs. Washington Predictions, Picks

Washington is less healthy than Dallas on both sides of the ball and also far less talented. There's really no reason Dallas should lose this game, even against a divisional opponent.

Rivalry or not, games between these teams aren't typically close. Seven of the last eight matchups have been decided by eight or more points, and Dallas has won seven of the last 10. This is also a great spot for Prescott, who per Action Labs is 19-8 ATS against the NFC East in his career, including 2-0 this season.

I was eyeing this line early in the week, hoping it would get down to Dallas -3. That might have been my favorite line of the week, but the Cowboys are too public so this line was always going to move the other way.

Normally, a rising line for a road favorite in a division game would be a concern, but I think Dallas is undervalued while Washington is getting too much respect. A month ago, this line would easily have been over a touchdown, so we're still getting value.

This feels like a game the Cowboys remind us that they're still comfortably in control of the NFC East and also Super Bowl contenders. I'll take the Cowboys at -4.5.

Pick: Cowboys -4.5 | Bet to: -5.5