Packers vs. Bears Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Bears +12 |
| Lean Packers -11.5 |
| Packers 1H -6.5 |
Bears +12
Chris Raybon: As per usual, the public is all over the Packers. And why wouldn't they be? The Packers are an NFL-best 10-2 against the spread (ATS) and have covered in two of three games since Aaron Rodgers came off the COVID list.
Sportsbooks know the public loves the Packers, though, which is why they have inflated the line up to two points above my projected spread of -10 and our PRO projection of -10.3 (check real-time NFL odds here).
Teams that cover at this rate tend to see inflated lines, which tend to render them unprofitable as the season wears on. Case in point: Since 2003, teams in the second half of the season (excluding Week 17) that had covered at least two-thirds of their games up to that point are just 257-315-16 (44.9%) ATS, according to our Action Labs data.
The Bears lost by 10 in the first matchup, but it took a late Rodgers touchdown and an egregious blown call that resulted in a Packers interception of Justin Fields in the end zone when the Bears should have had a free play on an offsides penalty that was missed. The Packers have played 12 games this season, and only three times has the final gun sounded with them ahead by 13 or more points. The Bears have also played 12 games, and only three times have they lost by 13 or more.
Covering a huge number like this is especially tough in a game that is expected to be low scoring — which this game is — with the total sitting in the 42-43 range.
Since 2003, road dogs of at least 11 points in games with a total of 46 or below are 131-92-1 (59%) ATS. In divisional matchups, it improves to 54-31 ATS, a 64% cover rate.
I was able to grab this at Bears +12.5, but you can still find 12 at several books, including PointsBet — but I wouldn’t go below 11. You can read my entire breakdown of this matchup here.
Lean Packers -11.5
Brandon Anderson: Remind me again why we didn't flex Bills-Bucs to Sunday night? Instead we get Aaron Rodgers and the team he owns in another game with a huge line.
Only this time, I'm taking it.
Pick a trend you like. Rodgers is 9-4-1 ATS coming off the bye (69%). He covers 66% of the time at home, 64% as a home favorite and 67% in primetime at home. Rodgers has covered 62% of the time as a division favorite. The Packers have beat the Bears 20 of the last 23 meetings — nine of those wins by double digits.
Rodgers was right — he does own the Bears. He's 17-6 ATS lifetime against Chicago, covering 74% of the time.
The Bears have key injuries on both sides of the ball, while Green Bay is finally getting healthy and coming off its bye week. The Packers are 9-3 and quietly humming along to a third straight 13-win season, and Chicago is not going to get in their way. I’d play this to -13.
Packers 1H -6.5
Michael Arinze: In Week 6, Aaron Rodgers displayed his dominance of the Bears yet again. Although the future Hall of Famer threw for only 195 yards, he did finish with three touchdowns on the day, including a six-yard scamper on the ground.
Much of the discussion that followed the game was about Rodgers mouthing to a Bears fan, "I still own you!" The numbers certainly support his claim as he's 21-5 in his career against Chicago. While there might be some thought that he's given the Bears bulletin material for the rematch, I don't see it that way.
After missing the last two games due to a rib injury, Justin Fields will be back under center. I would argue that this is a perfect time to go ahead and fade the Bears, particularly in the first half. Per ESPN, Fields has the second-worst Total QBR in the league at 25.9. That's not exactly the profile of a quarterback you'd want to bank on getting off to a fast start.
Green Bay is as high as a 12-point favorite in this matchup, and a point spread that is probably just high enough to keep the back door open for the Bears in the second half. As a result, I'd recommend a play on the Packers to cover the first half — that spread is much more tolerable at -6.5 and it's widely available.
Note that Rodgers is 21-11-1 against the spread (ATS) in first halves against the Bears. Moreover, he's 4-0-1 ATS in this spot over their past five meetings.
The Bears are still trying to bring Fields up to speed as he remains very much a work in progress. By contrast, Rodgers is already a finished masterpiece. Take the sure thing and lay the points with the three-time MVP.
Since FanDuel has the best price at -6.5 (-105), I'll be risking a half-unit on the home favorites in the first half.
