Patriots vs. Chargers Odds
| Patriots Odds | +4.5 |
| Chargers Odds | -4.5 |
| Over/Under | 49.5 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
The Los Angeles Chargers come off their bye week looking to rebound from their 34-6 loss against the hands of the Baltimore Ravens as host the New England Patriots.
The Chargers will be looking to avenge one of their worst losses in franchise history, a 45-0 drubbing last December, which dropped them to 3-9 on the year, eliminating them from the postseason and marking the beginning of the end of the Anthony Lynn era.
Now, the Chargers sit at 4-2 under Brandon Staley and look like a contender with Justin Herbert at quarterback. The Patriots are rebuilding behind Mac Jones and sit at 3-4 on the season. Still, with Bill Belichick at the helm, New England has a chance to win every week.
Oddsmakers have installed the Chargers as 6-point favorites with a total of 47.5 before the market pushed the side to 4.5 and the total to 49.5.
So is there any betting value left in the current numbers? Let's analyze both sides and find out!
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Patriots vs. Chargers Injury Report
Patriots Injuries
- LB Brandon King (thigh): Out
- WR Kendrick Bourne (shoulder): Questionable
- TE Jonnu Smith (shoulder): Questionable
- G Shaq Mason (abdomen): Questionable
- C David Andrews (ankle): Questionable
- LB Dont’a Hightower (ankle): Questionable
- LB Kyle Van Noy (groin): Questionable
- CB Shaun Wade (concussion): Questionable
See the complete Patriots IR here.
Chargers Injuries
- RB Austin Ekeler (hip): Questionable
- LB Drue Tranquill (chest): Questionable
Patriots vs. Chargers Matchup
| Patriots Offense | DVOA Rank | Chargers Defense |
| 15 | Total | 16 |
| 18 | Pass | 5 |
| 14 | Rush | 32 |
| Patriots Defense | DVOA Rank | Chargers Offense |
| 14 | Total | 11 |
| 14 | Pass | 13 |
| 14 | Rush | 11 |
| Football Outsiders' DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team's success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent. | ||
|---|---|---|
Can Pats Compete With Top Opposition?
The Patriots are a far cry from the Tom Brady teams that won six Super Bowls, nine AFC titles and 17 division championships. They now sit at just 3-4 with two wins over the New York Jets and one over the Houston Texans. Although this team has remained competitive, it speaks volumes it only has wins over rookie quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Davis Mills.
The Patriots have also been fortunate to play all but two games so far at home. While the impact of home-field advantage has been diminished, it's certainly an advantage for a rookie quarterback.
The Patriots +7 in turnovers against the Jets alone and -7 against every other opponent on their schedule. As a whole, the Patriots have played the 22nd-ranked schedule of opposing defenses this year, which makes their offense overrated. Despite the easy schedule, New England's offense is 18th in Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play) and 12th in Success Rate.
Nevertheless, the Patriots have some advantages in this matchup, most notably against their 11th-ranked rushing attack in terms of rushing success rate, against this porous Chargers run defense.
The Patriots throw the ball on 61% of plays, one of the highest rates in the league, but they'll have to find a balance to keep Herbert at bay.
New England's injury report is lengthy on both sides of the ball. The secondary hasn't replaced Stephon Gilmore, and Devin McCourty and Shaun Wade are banged up. Jonathan Jones is out for the season, as well, so this unit has its work cut out for it.
Chargers Poised to Bounce Back
Herbert's metrics took a hit against the Ravens, but he's on the path toward becoming one of the NFL's best quarterbacks.
Herbert has thrown for 1,034 yards and 14 touchdowns to just four interceptions, ranking ninth in ESPN's QBR. He leads an explosive Chargers offense with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen that has the fifth-highest pass-to-run ratio in the league at 65%-35%.
The Chargers should be able to find some success through the air in this matchup against the aforementioned Patriots secondary.
Nevertheless, a big reason for my optimism in the Chargers this week has to do with Staley speaking on how this team was too conservative on early downs, which led to this team being over-reliant on finding success on third and fourth down.
after being too conservative on early downs to start the season, Brandon Staley’s offense has worked hard to emerge from the bye with a “prolific” early down offense pic.twitter.com/Lp7aJwykJ7
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 25, 2021
The Chargers have been downright abysmal on early downs, ranking 24th in Early Down Success rate (43.3%). Based on Staley's comments, you have to assume that things get better after the bye week.
Before their loss against the Ravens, the Chargers were dominant on third and fourth down with a combined success rate of 57.3%.Before the swift regression against the Ravens, the Chargers were converting 48.53% of their third downs and have converted 7-of-8 (87.5%) fourth-down conversions this year. If Los Angeles can find some success on early downs, this offense will be even tougher to stop with a head coach who has no problems going for it on fourth down.
The Chargers do have a leaky run defense that ranks dead last in rushing yards per game (162.5) and yards per rush (5.4) while allowing a 53.0% rushing success rate on the ground.
The Chargers also welcome the return of linebacker Drue Tranquill, defensive tackle Justin Jones and safety Nasir Adderley. Tranquill is the ninth-ranked linebacker according to Pro Football Focus, and Jones should be big in slowing down the run which the Chargers have struggled with.
Fortunately for Los Angeles, the Patriots rushing attack isn't similar to that of the Browns or Ravens; New England is just 14th in Rushing Efficiency.
Patriots vs. Chargers Picks
This feels like the perfect buy-low spot for the Chargers, who are coming off their bye week after a 34-6 loss to the Ravens. The Patriots' wins are unimpressive and while they've played the Cowboys and Buccaneers tough, they were fortunate in those games given how their opponents performed in the box score.
The steep total of 49 tells us we're going to get a high-scoring game and I'm not sure the Patriots can keep up with the Chargers offensively given their injuries in the secondary. Look for Herbert and the Chargers to avenge last season's 45-0 loss under this new coaching regime with Brandon Staley at the helm.
The 4.5 points feels like a bargain here. I'll lay the points with the Chargers
Pick: Chargers -4.5 | Bet to: -5.5
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