NFL Odds: Seahawks vs. Washington
| Seahawks Odds | -1 |
| Washington Odds | +1 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
The Seattle Seahawks have dropped five out of their last six games while the Washington Football Team has won its last two. Will Washington stay hot at home against a reeling opponent, or are the reports of Seattle's death greatly exaggerated?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Seahawks vs. Washington Injury Report
Seahawks Injuries
- RB Rashaad Penny (hamstring): Out
- RB Travis Homer (calf): Out
- OT Jamarco Jones (back): Out
- OG Damien Lewis (elbow): Out
- CB Tre Brown (knee): Out
Washington Injuries
- OT Samuel Cosmi (hip): Out
- C Tyler Larsen (knee): Out
- TE Ricky Seals-Jones (hip): Doubtful
- WR Adam Humphries (hip): Questionable
- WR Curtis Samuel (groin): Questionable
Seahawks vs. Washington Matchup
| Seahawks Offense | DVOA Rank | Washington Defense |
| 13 | Total | 31 |
| 12 | Pass | 30 |
| 13 | Rush | 11 |
| Seahawks Defense | DVOA Rank | Washington Offense |
| 19 | Total | 19 |
| 25 | Pass | 13 |
| 9 | Rush | 28 |
| Football Outsiders' DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team's success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent. | ||
|---|---|---|
Seahawks In Perfect Bounce-Back Spot
While it's easy to point to Russell Wilson's finger injury and his subsequent premature return for Seattle's tailspin on offense, the truth of the matter is that the issues were there even before Wilson went down.
In Wilson's four full starts before going down, the Seahawks ranked 26th in third-down conversation rate overall (33%) and 32nd via the pass (21%). They have since dropped to 31st in conversion rate overall (32%) and remained dead last when passing (24%).
Will Seattle solve its offensive issues on Monday? The likely answer is "yes," for three reasons.
- Early-down success is more predictive than third-down success, and Seattle's offense is ranked eighth in early-down success rate (63%, per Sharp Football Stats) — and this includes the three games and change started by Geno Smith.
- Much of what has gone wrong on third down stems not from a lack of talent, but from schematic and decision-making issues that appear to be correctable. For instance, Seattle's second-most targeted player on third down after D.K. Metcalf (17) is Freddie Swain (14), who has gotten more looks on third down than Tyler Lockett (seven) and Gerald Everett (five) combined. Good defense will take away your top option on third down, and great ones may even be able to take away your top two, but its inexcusable when a player who is generously your fourth-best receiving option has gotten more targets on the money down than your second- and third-best options combined. Washington is ranked 23rd in DVOA against opposing No. 1 wide receivers and 31st against No. 2s, so Wilson and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron should be able to get this corrected this week.
- Washington's defense is ranked dead last in third-down conversion rate allowed (53%) — and that's with Chase Young playing in nine of 10 games and Montez Sweat playing in eight.
Even with Smith starting three games and Wilson face planting in his last two, the Seahawks are still 12th in offensive passing DVOA. They should be able to get back on track against a Washington defense that is ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass despite having Young and Sweat — who combined for 48 pressures, six sacks and four forced fumbles — for most of the year.
Washington Offense Not Maximizing Opportunities
Whereas Seattle's offense has a clear edge on Washington's defense — ranking 18 spots better in DVOA — Washington's offense and Seattle's defense are evenly matched, both ranking 19th.
Washington's offense should be able to move the ball through the air, especially if tight end Logan Thomas (hamstring) comes off IR as expected, but the issue is consistency. Seattle fields an above-average run defense while Washington has put forth a bottom-five run game. Second-year pro Antonio Gibson is talented, but he hasn't responded well to an increased workload. His yards per carry dropped from 4.7 on 12.1 carries per game as a rookie to 3.9 on 15.4 carries per game this season despite a run-blocking unit that has earned a top-five grade (80.2) this year from PFF.
If Washington is forced to abandon the run game or isn't picking up good gains on first down via the run, you worry about whether the offense can maximize its opportunities. Washington has turned it over at the fifth-highest clip per drive (14.7%) and faces a Seattle defense that is ranked ninth in third-down conversion rate allowed (37% and fifth in red-zone conversion rate allowed (50%).
Although the loss of Tre Brown (knee) will hurt, the Seahawks have also done a much better job of limiting opposing No. 1 wide receivers since cutting Tre Flowers and are up to sixth in DVOA against the position.
NFL Pick: Seahawks vs. Washington
Even with Seattle being forced to start Smith for three games and spending two others getting absolutely nothing from Wilson — and even with Washington having both Young and Sweat at their disposal for all but two games — the Seahawks still rate a cut above the Football Team. Seattle is 16th in overall DVOA at 4.6% above average, while Washington ranks 24th at 9.7% below average. And with Washington having won two straight and Seattle having lost five out of the last six, this is a letdown spot for the Football Team against a more desperate opponent.
In the Wilson era, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is 27-15-4 (64%) against the spread (ATS) when coming off a straight-up loss, covering by an average of 3.8 points, per our Action Labs data:
And Carroll's ability to motivate his team to bounce back when stuck in a funk predates Wilson, as his teams have rattled off an impressive 16-2-1 (89%) ATS record when coming off a multi-game losing streak, covering by an average of 7.3 points.
Pick: Seahawks -1 | Bet to: -1
| More Seahawks-Washington Odds, Picks, Trends |
|---|
