Seahawks vs. Washington Predictions, Picks, Odds
| Pick |
|---|
| Seahawks -1 |
| Lean Seahawks -1 |
| WFT +1.5 |
| Under 47.5 |
Seahawks -1
Chris Raybon: Even with Seattle being forced to start Geno Smith for three games and spending two others getting absolutely nothing from Russell Wilson — and even with Washington having both Chase Young and Montez Sweat at their disposal for all but two games — the Seahawks still rate a cut above the Football Team. Seattle is 16th in overall DVOA at 4.6% above average, while Washington ranks 24th at 9.7% below average. And with Washington having won two straight and Seattle having lost five out of the last six, this is a letdown spot for the Football Team against a more desperate opponent.
In the Wilson era, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is 27-15-4 (64%) against the spread (ATS) when coming off of a straight-up loss, covering by an average of 3.8 points.
And Carroll's ability to motivate his team to bounce back when stuck in a funk predates Wilson, as he his teams have rattled off an impressive 16-2-1 (89%) ATS record when coming off of a multi-game losing streak, covering by an average of 7.3 points. I’d only play this to Seattle -1. You can read my entire break down of this matchup here.
Lean Seahawks -1
Sean Koerner:I was able to bet this with Seattle available at +1, but even at -1 I’m buying the dip on Russell Wilson after two poor performances upon his return from a finger injury that knocked him out for three-plus games. However, it's only a matter of time before he breaks out of his slump, and I think his think game back will be the charm.
The Seahawks are much better than their 3-7 record would indicate, while Washington is coming off back-to-back wins over Tampa Bay and Carolina. The market is overrating the Football Team a bit here, especially considering they recently lost Chase Young to a season-ending injury. I'm projecting Seattle as two-point favorites here, so I love getting a point if they get back to +1 anywhere. I would bet this up to Seattle -1 and stay away if it gets to -1.5.
WFT +1.5
Joe Klein: The case for Seattle as a short road favorite is an understandable one: It's buying the dip on an elite quarterback who has played poorly recently. But the problems with the Seahawks' offense are more structural than that, and it starts with the play-calling.
Seattle continues to pound the ball on early downs with Alex Collins. With Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf on the roster and a bad run-blocking offensive line, running the ball as much as Seattle does is mind-blowing. Russell Wilson is also playing extremely poorly with just a 43% success rate this season. For context, that ranks below Trevor Lawrence and Jacoby Brissett — not great company.
Yes, the WFT defense is without Chase Young and Montez Sweat, but Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne are still generating interior pressure at an elite rate. Seattle is also now missing starting LG Damien Lewis; the backups are in for a long night against Allen.
Furthermore, we’ve started to see some regression on their third-down defense for the better. Washington ranks dead last in third downs allowed over expected at 13.1%, but teams are converting third-and-longs at unsustainable rates. Given Seattle’s inability to move the chains on offense, WFT’s defense may be able to hold up better than expected.
Can Washington’s offense put the Seahawks away? This offense remains fairly underrated due to poor play in the red zone. WFT is 31st in red-zone touchdown percentage, but this week, they get Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas back. Thomas in particular is key — he has eight touchdowns since the start of 2020.
Washington's offense is surprisingly top-five in early down EPA/dropback. As for Seattle? It's 29th in opponent dropback success rate and 25th in EPA/dropback allowed. Now the Seahawks are without CB Tre Brown, their second-best player in the secondary, so what was already an advantage for the Football Team's skill players got bigger.
While the rushing numbers aren’t great for Washington, a lot of that occurred without All-Pro RG Brandon Scherff. He's been back for two weeks and WFT has been better for it — they ran for 190 yards against a stout Panthers defense last week. The Seahawks are also a stout run defense, but the Football Team's top-rated offensive line (No. 1 in ESPN's run block win rate) should give them a chance to balance this offense.
There are too many red flags with this Seattle team right now — Pete Carroll yelling at press conferences, finger-pointing about the offensive woes — it’s all bad. Maybe it clicks, but I’m not banking on it.
I would bet Washington at +1.5 or better. And for those who want to be more cautious? Seattle wins very few games with margin, and at an average total, teasing Washington up to 7.5 is a very attractive option.
Under 47.5
Michael Arinze:FiveThirtyEight estimates the Seahawks have a 6% chance of making the playoffs. Should they fall short, it would be the second time they've missed the playoffs in the Russell Wilson era. With such a grim outlook, I'm not sure how motivated they'll be to play on Monday night without much on the line.
Wilson returned to the team ahead of schedule following a fractured middle finger on his throwing hand. Since then, the Seahawks scored just 13 points over two games, and he registered a Total QBR average of 17.0. While he's never going to use the finger as an excuse, one has to question whether the injury, along with some rust, is responsible for such an underwhelming display offensively.
Seattle will face a Washington team that should be energized off back-to-back victories, including an impressive win over the reigning Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. There's certainly a buzz in the nation's capital as the Football Team might have found their quarterback of the future in Taylor Heinicke. But now Washington will have the center stage all to itself on Monday, and there's always a chance for a possible letdown with such a young team in this spot.
There are too many unknowns in this game for me to land on either side. That's why I'm more willing to take a look at the total.
What we know is that the Seahawks have struggled offensively recently. And while Washington's defense is 31st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and 25th in allowing 368.5 yards per game, it's ranked fourth in allowing just 281 yards per game over its last three games. Even if Seattle's offense continues to struggle, I think we'll see a reasonable effort from them defensively.
You might be well aware that the total has gone under in Seattle's last eight games. But what you might not know is that the under is also on an 8-0 run in games that involve Washington with a total of at least 47.5 points.
With this not exactly the most appealing Monday night game, I'll look to play it under 47.5 at FanDuel for just a half-unit before it dips any lower than 47.
