The NFL is as much of a Thanksgiving Day staple as turkey and stuffing, but at Action, we take our football with a side of betting.
Our experts have analyzed all of the holiday matchups in order to make their NFL predictions for Bills-Saints, Raiders-Cowboys and Bear-Lions. Find odds for all three games, our spread and over/under picks for each, start/sit advice for your fantasy football lineups and more below.
Thanksgiving NFL Predictions, Picks, Odds
Bears-Lions Odds, Prediction
| Bears Odds | -3 |
| Lions Odds | +3 |
| Over/Under | 42 |
| Time | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Odds via Gun Lake. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Billy Ward: Even at the bare-bones total of 42 points, the Lions and Bears have combined to go under in 12 of their 20 games this season. That includes their first meeting of the year, in which they combined for 38 points.
It's hard to find hard data on this directly, but divisional opponents tend to score less points in their second meeting of the year. Looking at DFS quarterback performance as a proxy (using the FantasyLabs Trends Tool) can give us some insight, though.
Quarterbacks in divisional games average 16.83 fantasy points from November on (when it's likely to be the second meeting) and 18.42 in September and October. Again, this is an imperfect proxy for scoring. However, it should give us some insight into how teams adapt later in the season.
With both teams having quarterback issues, it's hard to see a road past 40 points in this game. The best line currently available is 42 at PointsBet , which I'd bet down to 41.5 points. This number is a bit more appealing if Boyle starts for the Lions, but I see value on it either way. The Lions have failed to score more than 19 points since Week 1, even with Goff under center.
Pick: Under 42 | Bet to: 41.5
Raiders-Cowboys Odds, Prediction
| Cowboys Odds | -7.5 |
| Raiders Odds | +7.5 |
| Over/Under | 51.5 |
| Time | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS, NFL Network |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Joe Klein: About four weeks ago, it would've been impossible to set a total for this game at 51. Both offenses were dynamic over the first half of the season, while both of these defenses showed signs that had the market expecting regression. The Cowboys defense in particular was ripe for regression, given the rate it was forcing turnovers.
But the Raiders offense has taken an undeniable turn for the worse. Without Jon Gruden, preparing on a short week becomes harder, especially against the Cowboys pass rush. Dallas may have CeeDee Lamb back after all, but the Raiders secondary is capable and Lamb may be limited given his concussion was sustained four days ago.
Ultimately, this sets us up for an under, but I have more of an appetite to back the first-half under. The second half has potential for points if either team is trailing. Both would kick up their tempo and pass rates when trailing, and garbage time may bite us. For the Cowboys, Lamb's status is big. The market has already pushed this total to 51.5 on news he may be available — if you're willing to be patient, better numbers on an under may be available.
It is also worth pointing out that Dallas is an excellent teaser leg at 7.5.
Pick: 1H Under 26 (-110) | Bet to: 24.5 (-110)
Bills-Saints Odds, Prediction
| Bills Odds | -6 |
| Saints Odds | +6 |
| Over/Under | 45 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Sean Koerner: This is a rare time where I'm going with a public favorite. Given my projected line, the Bills are playing much better than their 6-4 record would indicate, and with the Saints' injury report I am easily laying the points with the Bills.
I would project the Bills closer to -8.5 if both Mark Ingram II and Terron Armstead are ruled out. Therefore I think it's key to lock in this number in at 6.5 before it potentially moves to 7 with more injury news.
Pick: Bills -6.5 | Bet to: -6.5
More NFL Thanksgiving Betting Guides
Thanksgiving Props:Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals the biggest prop betting edges based on his player projections.
Spread Picks:NFL betting analyst Brandon Anderson runs through his top play for each Thanksgiving game.
A Same Game Parlay:Building a same-game parlay for Bills vs. Saints? NFL betting analyst Phillip Kall makes his picks on PointsBet for this Thanksgiving showdown.
Best Bets For Cowboys-Raiders:Take your Thanksgiving with a side of action? Our experts reveal their favorite picks for Cowboys-Raiders, including the over/under.
Best Bets For Bills-Saints: This game is the turkey to our Thanksgiving slate, the main event if you will. Our experts reveal their favorite picks for Bills-Saints, featuring the spread and over/under.
NFL Thanksgiving Fantasy Cheat Sheet
