NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: How We’re Betting Giants-Chargers, Broncos-Lions, 49ers-Bengals, Bills-Bucs

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

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Lions at Broncos Odds

Billy Ward: After opening at 7.5, the spread here has jumped as high as 10.5 at some books. Part of that is based around the Lions' flu outbreak — both starting offensive guards and quarterback Jared Goff are among those afflicted.

That puts us in a tough situation as bettors since the Lions' spread is a clear value if the Lions are able to get healthy for Sunday's game. Of course, once we know that they're good to go, the line will likely move with it (check real-time NFL odds here).

Additionally, while the Broncos are fairly healthy, both of the players on their side who've missed practice this week are key contributors to the defensive front. The Broncos were comfortable trading away Von Miller partially due to the return of Bradley Chubb from injury. Shelby Harris is the Broncos' top-graded run defender (among linemen) and has also contributed three sacks on the season. While both should play, it's likely that neither is at full strength this week.

That obviously benefits Detroit's offense. Goff has some of the most dramatic splits of any quarterback between his performance with a clean pocket vs. when he's pressured. Therefore, injuries to the Broncos' front seven is a big deal.

Therefore, I'm relatively bullish on Detroit's offense this week. Goff returned on Thursday to a full practice, which is big in and of itself. It's also a good sign that the other players with the flu are close to returning.

At 8-4 ATS, the Lions are one of the best teams at keeping games close. Ten points is a big spread given the mediocrity of the Broncos offense, so we'll take the points.

Pick: Lions +10.5 | Bet to: +10

Giants at Chargers Odds

Michael Arinze: I'm pretty convinced that I don't want to go near the Giants on any level in this game. However, if you're looking to back the Chargers, you'll want to be sure that Mike Williams is in fact going to be active. The worry is that the point spread might be even higher if both Keenan Allen and Williams miss out.

As a result, I prefer to get ahead of the line, so I'll look to play the Chargers as part of a seven-point two-team teaser. DraftKings is currently offering them at -8.5. I think they're a good pairing with the Falcons, who are +3 underdogs on the road against the Panthers.

Our final ticket on a seven-point teaser will reflect the Chargers at -1.5 and the Falcons at +10.

Pick: Two-Team Seven-Point Teaser (-135): Chargers -1.5 and Falcons +10

49ers at Bengals Odds

Phillip Kall: The line for this game has seen a lot of movement. It opened as Cincinnati -2 and has swung to its current spot of Bengals +1.5 at most books (check real-time NFL odds here).

If the 49ers were at full strength, the movement would make more sense to me, but injuries to their backfield are simply too much. At running back, the 49ers are left to Jeff Wilson to lead the way with Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon both out. In Wilson’s lone start he ran the ball 19 times for 50 yards against the Jags — not the best sign of hope.

More importantly, they are likely missing their best playmaker as Deebo Samuel has missed practice all week. Samuel has not only been their best receiver but also showed explosiveness when he lined up in the backfield in recent weeks. We saw this start to take place last week, and even George Kittle’s monstrous game was not enough to save San Francisco.

As for the Bengals offense, its deep array of receivers should give the 49ers problems. At corner, the 49ers have only one corner grading in the top 50, per PFF. They will still somehow find a way to matchup and slow down the Bengals' dynamic duo in Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase on the outside. Plus, Tyler Boyd is still always a great third option in the middle of the field.

San Fran’s run-first mentality being crippled by injuries and the Bengals having a dearth of receiving options make this one easy for me. Take the home underdog.

Pick: Bengals +2

Bills at Bucs Odds

Joe Klein: The Buccaneers are the best team in the NFL right now, and it's always painful to consider betting against Tom Brady. The guy has done it so many times to Buffalo in his career, so why would this game be any different?

The Bills' average win this season is by 24 points, whereas their average loss is by eight. Buffalo has the statistical profile of an elite football team despite some of its struggles this year in close games. This offense has been dynamic for most of the year when the weather has been good, and it will be in sunny Tampa Bay.

This has become a solid buy-low point on the Bills. Tampa Bay is the better team, but 3.5 is a bit too much for how good Buffalo is. The Bills have the offensive firepower to score, and a defense that can hold its own against Brady's aerial assault. I like Buffalo at 3.5 and would even play a cheap 3 if that's all available. Be sure to shop around for best price.

Pick: Buffalo +3.5 (-115) | Bet to: +3 (-105 or better)

Editor's note: The following previews were for games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Falcons at Panthers Odds

Mike Randle: This line opened at Carolina -3.5 and fell as low as -2 before settling at -2.5 and -3 across books (check real-time NFL odds here). This game is a battle between squares and sharps, with 60% of the bets on Atlanta but 64% of the money on the Panthers at time of writing.

I am going with the sharps here, and taking the Panthers minus the small number at home.

I see the Falcons struggling in a road game, played outdoors, without Ridley and against a solid Panthers defense. Look for the Panthers offense to be improved after the coaching change, which leads me to back the favorite and lay less than a field goal.

Pick: Panthers -2.5 | Bet to: -3

Ravens at Browns Odds

Billy Ward: Baltimore has been the better team on the year, but is the underdog in this one. Your read on this likely comes down to how much you value home-field advantage, with the Ravens winning their matchup at home. If you think the change in venue is worth more than that, the Browns are your pick.

I don't believe it does, though, and I have other reasons to believe the Ravens will perform better here. While they rank among the league's worst teams in both giveaways and takeaways, with those being relatively high-variance, it's fair to say the Ravens have been a bit unlucky despite their 8-4 record.

On the other hand, The Browns have been fortunate to have a .500 record to this point in the season. They've been outscored by 13 points on the year, which typically would suggest a team about one game below even.

Several books have this game at 2.5, but some have yet to move off of the key number of three (check real-time NFL odds here). There's enough uncertainty in this one that I want the whole field goal with Baltimore, so I'll pass if this line drops.

Pick: Ravens +3 | Bet to: +3

Seahawks at Texans Odds

Phillip Kall: The Texans are a team that's situation just went from bad to worse. The loss of their quarterback is a setback offensively, and the loss of Zack Cunningham dampens an already bad defense.

In games that Davis Mills has started, Houston has scored more than 10 points just twice. The first was the shocker where they almost took down New England. The second was against the Rams when they were down 38-0 already and Los Angeles sent in its backups. It is hard to imagine they recreate either of those "successes.”

As for the Seahawks offense, given the talented playmakers, this should be a pick-your-poison situation for them. The Texans do not have the defensive backfield to match up with the size and speed of the Seahawks receivers. If they choose to limit the big play, they are putting their bad run defense in an even worse spot. If they choose to load the box, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will go off.

We have seen what Houston’s offense looks like with Mills as the starter, and it is not pretty. The only question when looking at the spread then is how much to trust the Seahawks attack. I know they have done little to earn any faith recently, but they simply out-talent the Texans defense by too much. Trust them to take care of business and win this one comfortably.

Pick: Seahawks -8.5 | Bet to: -9.5

Raiders at Chiefs Odds

Michael Arinze: While it's rare that I'm ever at a loss for words, sometimes when a handicap is this straightforward, it's best to keep it simple and not overthink things.

There's been a lot of talk about the Chiefs' struggles to cover point spreads. However, they've done so in each of their last three games. That doesn't mean I'm necessarily running to the betting window to lay 9.5 points with them.

This is a week where I think the Chiefs make an excellent teaser option. Unfortunately, the current point spread is too high to consider a Wong six-point teaser. As a result, I'll look to play the Chiefs on a two-team seven-point teaser (-135) and pair them with the Seahawks at -1.5.

Lastly, I'm bearish on the ability of this Las Vegas offense to put some points on the board. BetMGM offers team total odds, and I would play the Raiders under 19.5 at -135 odds.

Pick: Two-Team Seven-Point Teaser (-135): Chiefs -2.5 and Seahawks -1.5

Bonus Pick: Raiders Team Total Under 19.5 (-135, 0.5 units)

Saints at Jets Odds

Mike Vitanza: With Taysom Hill behind center and Alvin Kamara back in the starting lineup, it’s safe to say that we’ll see a heavy dose of the run from the Saints. Both of his change-of-pace options — Mark Ingram and Ty Montgomery — are out, leaving just Dwayne Washington (four total carries) as the only option behind Alvin Kamara.

In last week’s game, Hill had 11 rushing attempts in a game where the Saints were trailing and looking for chunk plays. His 46% completion rate via the air, coupled with his four interceptions, undoubtedly led to more scrambling than the Saints would prefer.

If the implied game script holds true, the Saints will be up and able to control the clock via the run in this one. While there will certainly be plays designed for Hill to run the ball himself again, Kamara should also see an uptick above the 18.3 carries he’s averaged on the season.

His current rushing prop sits at just 67.5 yards at the time of writing, which considered against the projected game script and the fact he’ll be running against the Jets' 30th-ranked rush defense, makes this prop extremely desirable.

In fact, Kamara has already surpassed that mark in four of eight games that he’s played this season. While that ratio may not be particularly encouraging, three of those instances were similar game scripts in which the Saints were favored and in control throughout.

While there is some risk given he’s just returning from injury, the Saints have been incredibly careful with his rehab and wouldn’t bring him back if he wasn’t able to handle a full workload.

As such, I’m taking the over on this rushing prop and would comfortably play it as high as 71 yards.

Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 67.5 Rushing Yards | Bet to: 71

Jaguars at Titans Odds

Mike Vitanza: While it’s hard to get excited about this Jaguars — and rightly so — the matchup here dictates they should actually be able to move the ball effectively against a Titans defense that has not only struggled of late, but also surrendered the Jaguars third-highest point total of the season in their first matchup.

To be clear, I’m not projecting a Jacksonville offensive breakout here. I’m not even suggesting that they’ll cover this eight-point spread. However, I do think the Jaguars will be able to score enough points here to get us to an over in this Week 14 matchup.

Not only have they already found some degree of success in this same spot earlier this year, scoring 19 points in a loss, but they’re also taking on a depleted Titans defense that has allowed an average of 26 points per game over their last three. On the other side, the Titans will have Julio Jones back and have already proven their running game can survive the loss of Derrick Henry. Against a poor Jacksonville defense, there should be little resistance.

Given the above, there's certainly value on the over at the current number of 43.5 points. Sharp money has also found their way to the same conclusion. Per our public betting data, 70% of the money in this matchup is on the over, compared to just 44% of total tickets at time of writing, implying sharps have loaded up on it.

The current number of 43.5 is a go on the over, but I’d hesitate to play it if it moved above the key number of 44 in this matchup.

Pick: Over 43.5 | Bet to: 44

Cowboys at Washington Odds

Brandon Anderson: Washington is less healthy than Dallas on both sides of the ball and also far less talented. There's really no reason Dallas should lose this game, even against a divisional opponent.

Rivalry or not, games between these teams aren't typically close. Seven of the last eight matchups have been decided by eight or more points, and Dallas has won seven of the last 10. This is also a great spot for Dak Prescott, who per Action Labs is 19-8 against the spread (ATS) against the NFC East in his career, including 2-0 this season.

I was eyeing this line early in the week, hoping it would get down to Dallas -3. That might have been my favorite line of the week, but the Cowboys are too public so this line was always going to move the other way.

Normally, a rising line for a road favorite in a division game would be a concern, but I think Dallas is undervalued while Washington is getting too much respect. A month ago, this line would easily have been over a touchdown, so we're still getting value.

This feels like a game the Cowboys remind us that they're still comfortably in control of the NFC East and also Super Bowl contenders. I'll take the Cowboys at -4.5.

Pick: Cowboys -4.5 | Bet to: -5.5