NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions For Every Sunday Game: Bengals and Packers to Cover, Plus A 49ers-Falcons Prop

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Bengals at Broncos Odds

Phillip Kall: Despite being just a game over .500, the Broncos have had all but one game end with less than a touchdown difference. This implies they're great with a lead and terrible when playing from behind. Essentially, if Teddy Bridgewater can play within structure, he has no problems leading the offense. When he's forced to put the team on his shoulders and make plays, the offense can fall apart.

On the other side, Joe Burrow has not seen a dramatic difference in his play given the game situation, per Pro-Football-Reference. We even saw him answer the call last week and score 17 consecutive points after trailing by two touchdowns.

Both offenses prefer a conservative style and will have no problem running the clock as long as it's a one-score game. This means the game will come down to whichever team can make a couple of big plays or have the one late-game drive to win.

Knowing these quarterbacks and how they have done in close games, the only answer is to trust Joe Burrow and the Bengals. We've seen the big-play capability this offense has thanks to Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. Plus, we've seen Burrow lead game-winning drives this year. Heck, against the Green Bay Packers, he did it like five times if his kicker could have made just one kick.

I know Cincinnati is on the road but in an evenly matched game, I can get three points and the better quarterback? I will take that any day.

Pick: Bengals +3 | Bet to: +1.5

Falcons at 49ers Odds

Billy Ward: Elijah Mitchell was ruled out on Friday with his knee issue, leading to yet another "next man up" situation with the 49ers backfield. In this case, it's likely to be Jeff Wilson Jr.

Wilson has filled in capably in three games as the de facto lead back, averaging 14 carries for 43 yards per game along the way.

Those matchups were all against teams ranked (currently) top 13 or better in DVOA against the run. As we know, this matchup is much easier for Wilson.

Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan traditionally leans fairly heavily on his lead back, and the 49ers are favored. That means we can project Wilson for an uptick in both volume and efficiency compared to his usual rates this year.

With the injuries to the Falcons defense, 18 carries at four yards per seem like a reasonable projection for Wilson. He averages 4.2 yards per carry over his career, and the Niners run the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the league.

As of Saturday evening, FanDuel has the best line on Wilson's rushing yards. They have it at 62.5, which I'd be comfortable taking the over on. However, keep your eyes open for other books offerings on this one to make sure you get the best line available. These sometimes vary considerably from book to book.

Pick: Jeff Wilson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards | Bet to: 69.5

Packers at Ravens Odds

Michael Arinze: It's tough to see how a depleted secondary and hobbled quarterback can stand toe-to-toe with the Packers.

What's interesting is that even if the Ravens lose this week and drop to 8-6, they'll still have a decent chance to make the playoffs. Outside of Baltimore, no team in its division has more than seven wins on the season. And with an upcoming divisional game against the 7-6 Bengals in Week 16, it wouldn't surprise me if the Ravens are caught looking ahead.

BetMGM has the best price on the board with the Packers as a 5.5-point favorite as of Saturday evening (check real-time NFL odds here). When laying at least that many points this season, Green Bay is a perfect 5-0 against the spread, per our Action Labs data:

Sharp Football Stats ranks Baltimore 31st defensively against explosive pass plays. If anyone can locate the soft spots in the defense, it's Aaron Rodgers.

Lay the points with road favorites and play them up to -6.5.

Pick: Packers -5.5 | Bet to: -6.5

Editor's note: The following previews are for games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Panthers at Bills Odds

Billy Ward: The Bills have the league's best defense by most metrics, while the Panthers are an underrated unit themselves. Besides the raw numbers, the Panthers match up well to limit Buffalo's offensive strengths. These teams have combined this year to allow just over 39 points per game, well below the current total.

More importantly though, the QB-carousel (and general poor play) in Carolina should keep scoring low in this one. Buffalo has been content to ride out leads on the ground this season, so it's unlikely that they single-handedly force this game over the total.

Additionally, this game is being played in Buffalo. While the weather is expected to be relatively nice (by Buffalo-in-December standards), that's still a knock to the offenses here. I wouldn't bet based on this alone, but temperatures are forecasted at right around freezing, with some moderate (10-15 mph) wind.

This total has already dropped considerably since the open, but it's still a value at under 44.5.

Pick: Under 44.5 (-105) | Bet to: 44

Cardinals at Lions Odds

Joe Klein: At the current market price of 12.5, it's very difficult for me to make a case for either side. Arizona will likely romp in this game, but the Lions have shown some propensity to come in late through the backdoor. There's a reason why Detroit has one of the NFL's best records against the spread this season.

This game could set up for an excellent live angle. If Arizona is able to build a lead in the first half with its dynamic offense, it will likely look to put the game  away on the ground and run the clock out. This has been the Cardinals' approach in all three of their blowouts this season — build a lead, run out the clock and move on to the next week. Arizona is not interested in running up the score and dropping 40-plus points on the Lions.

And if the Lions trail? Betting against Jared Goff moving the ball down the field through the air has been a good one this season. The Cardinals should be able to slow him down and keep Detroit off the board.

This sets up perfectly for a live under. It's almost an auto-bet with the Cardinals, who can move the ball on the ground and rush the passer. Look for the best number if Arizona is leading and sit back and wait for the game to end without scoring.

Pick: 2H Under if Cardinals Lead

Texans at Jaguars Odds

Mike Randle: The culture was certainly bad under Urban Meyer, and I expect the team to respond positively to his dismissal. But the Texans have played hard for head coach David Culley all season, and I expect Houston to at least keep this game close.

I'll take the five points with the visitor against a Jacksonville team with other problems besides the departed head coach.

Pick: Texans +5 | Bet to: +4

Jets at Dolphins Odds

Mike Vitanza: When DeVante Parker has been healthy this season, he’s been a borderline WR1 for this Dolphins offense with Tua Tagovailoa under center, corralling at least four catches in each start with 62 yards or more in four of six games.

He’s also seeing an average of eight targets per game on the year, a number that will likely only increase this week with fewer passing options for Tagovailoa. This is a smash spot for Parker.

His current receiving prop of 54.5 receiving yards is inexplicably low given the matchup, so be sure to grab this quickly before the line shoots up. I’m loading up at the current number and would be comfortable playing it up through 61.5 yards if it continues to move prior to kickoff.

Pick: DeVante Parker Over 54.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to: 61.5

Cowboys at Giants Odds

Mike Vitanza: With the Giants unlikely to be able to sustain many competitive offensive drives with Glennon under center, the Cowboys should have plenty of offensive possessions in this one to pick apart this underperforming defense.

With neither Ezekiel Elliott nor Tony Pollard 100% healthy, I expect the bulk of the action to come via the pass, which should result in a ton of targets for both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Lamb, in particular, matches up particularly well and should be a constant target of Prescott if the Cowboys decide to exploit the mismatch.

As such, I expect him to easily surpass the 8.3 targets per game he’s seen on the season and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him exceed the 11.2 targets per game he’s seen over his last two outings.

All of this combines into a great recipe for the over on this Lamb receiving prop. The current prop of 66.5 yards on FanDuel feels very low, especially considering his projected target share and the fact he’s met or exceed that yardage total in eight games already this season.

I’m taking the over here and would be comfortable playing it up through 74.5 if the line were to shift prior to kickoff.

Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 66.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to: 74.5

Titans at Steelers Odds

Joe Klein: I understood the initial move toward Pittsburgh this weekend. Mike Tomlin as a home underdog has been an extremely profitable wager since he's been the coach of the Steelers, and the Steelers defense is getting healthier.

With that being said, this has gone too far.

Just a week ago, Pittsburgh closed as a 3.5-point underdog in Minnesota against a 5-7 Vikings team that was better than its record indicated. To close as a small favorite against Tennessee, implying a significant gap between the Vikings and Titans right now, seems off to me.

Tennessee hasn't been great since Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown got hurt, but its defense is stout and has a definite advantage over Pittsburgh's horrible offense. And the Titans offense? It won't have to do much here to get the job done. If you watched Minnesota gash the Steelers on the ground last Thursday, it's easy to imagine Tennessee will have some success too.

Trust head coach Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill to take care of Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger on the road.

Pick: Titans ML -105 | Bet to: -120