NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expert Bets For Every Game, Including Bills-Patriots, Bears-Seahawks, Jegs-Jets

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Lions at Falcons Odds

Mike Randle: If Jared Goff is somehow cleared to play Sunday, I expect this line to swing toward Detroit. And even if he isn't, I like the Lions with a few extra points of value with Tim Boyle or even David Blough at QB, so I'll take the points with them down to +4.5 if Goff plays or to +6.5 if he doesn't (check real-time NFL odds here).

The Lions have shown a ton of fight, which is more than the Falcons have displayed on either side of the ball. And Atlanta's defense generates no pressure while Detroit could actually have more offensive playmakers if D’Andre Swift returns.

I'm grabbing the points with a Detroit team that just crushed Arizona at home.

Pick if Goff starts: Lions to +4.5
Pick if Goff doesn't start: Lions to +6.5

Bucs at Panthers Odds

Billy Ward: The expectations for Carolina's offense in this one are, obviously, extraordinarily low. Besides their general ineptitude, the Panthers matchup poorly with Tampa's defense, both in an absolute sense, and in a strengths vs. weaknesses sense. Teams have struggled to run against Tampa all year, and that's Carolina's best hope of moving the ball.

However, there's also some risk that the Bucs offense underperforms in this one. Brady has shown time and again his ability to withstand the loss of a key player, or even two. However, he will be missing his top three receivers (by reception count) in this one. Having a top option who hasn't played since Week 6 (and was unable to practice with the team due to a suspension) isn't ideal, especially with a starting running back who's limited in the pass game.

Therefore, I like the under in this one, especially with Mike Evans not suiting up.

Pick: Under 44 | Bet to: 42.5

Ravens at Bengals Odds

Billy Ward: The prior meeting between these two teams led to a 41-17 win for the Bengals, but that game featured a healthy Lamar Jackson and mostly healthy Ravens defense. (Or at least one that wasn't missing it's top pieces in the secondary.)

This time, the game is in Cincinnati, with a surging Bengals team that is remarkably healthy (by NFL Week 16 standards) against a banged-up Baltimore team on a three-game losing streak. Jackson is not expected to suit up and backup Tyler Huntley is out with COVID, leaving us with Josh Johnson under center.

Even without the injury and illness chaos, these teams' season-long points for and against paint a clear picture of the Bengals being the superior team. On the year, Cincinnati has scored 35 more points than the Ravens, while allowing 12 fewer.

With the line movement after news Huntley was out for Baltimore, I'm still on the Bengals, but wouldn't play them past -7.5 (check real-time NFL odds here).

Pick: Bengals -7 | Bet to: -7.5

Chargers at Texans Odds

Mike Vitanza: With some of the biggest weapons on both offenses potentially sidelined, each will likely be working at less than 100% for Sunday's matchup.

While the Chargers have enough supplemental weapons with Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to still find success offensively, the Texans will be severely hampered without Brandin Cooks on the field. Not only does the absence of Cooks eliminate any viable downfield threat, it leaves two uninspiring options in Chris Conley and Nico Collins on the outside for Davis Mills to target as he tries to keep up with this Chargers offense. If this were any other offense, exploiting the Chargers' poor rush defense would be a viable alternative, but the combination of Rex Burkhead, David Johnson and Royce Freeman has yielded minor gains all season.

I expect minimal scoring and a myriad of short drives for the Texans on Sunday.

On the other side, a hampered run game without Ekeler, coupled with a matchup against a top-10 Texans pass defense, should hamper the Chargers offense just enough for them to perform below expectations. I expect them to be effective enough to win this game with ease, but the passing matchup and loss of Ekeler should be enough to limit their upside in this one.

Given the deficiencies on both sides, I’m targeting the under in this game. The current total sits at 46, but I’ll be playing it down to 44 if the line shifts prior to kickoff (check real-time NFL odds here).

Pick: Under 46 | Bet to: 44

Rams at Vikings Odds

Michael Arinze: In my complete game guide, we reviewed some of the Rams' scoring numbers in non-divisional games this season. Now let's expand the scope of that research to include how they've performed on the road inside a dome.

The Rams have been in this spot three times this season, and two games were outside the division. It's worth noting that the total cashed in all three instances.

There's also something to be said about the Rams playing on short rest after coming off a Tuesday game against the Seahawks. According to our Action Labs database, the total is 6-2 (+3.66 units) to the over when you have a visiting team that has just five days in between games.

Lastly, the early start time for this game will allow for more scoring. With kickoff slated for 1 p.m. ET, it'll feel like a 10 a.m. PT start time for the Rams. Since the 2019 season, the total is 20-8-1 (+11.15 units) to the over when the Vikings play at 1 p.m. ET.

Moreover, the over has cashed in each of the last four games in this spot.

DraftKings is still hanging a total of 48 for the game, which is worth a look before it gets to 49.

Pick: Over 48 | Bet to: 49

Bills at Patriots Odds

Phillip Kall: This game is a tough one. With the AFC East on the line, it seems obvious the Patriots will come in and take care of business. On the other hand, the Bills have looked impressive in their comeback efforts against the Patriots and Buccaneers, even if they fell just short.

I do think head coach Sean McDermott will learn from those comeback efforts, though, and push to get the Bills ahead early. This will force the Patriots to rely more on Mac Jones’ arm than they like. While Jones did show a positive rhythm against the Colts, him throwing is still preferable to the New England grounding and pounding the clock away again.

As for the Patriots defense, it’s currently getting too much love for stopping weak offenses. Their best two defensive performances — games against the Bills (first meeting) and Buccaneers — are arguably more attributable to the weather than to their play as well.

Take the better quarterback and the points in this huge showdown.

Pick: Bills +2 | Bet to: +1.5

Jaguars at Jets Odds

Anthony Dabbundo: By almost any metric, the Jets and Jaguars are two of the three worst teams in the NFL. Both rookie quarterbacks have been terrible, among the worst in the entire league, and have shown very few signs of improvement.

For this line to show the Jaguars as favorites in New York, though, implies that they're better across the board by at least a couple points to overcome any home-field advantage for the Jets. And with this game projected to be close, the Jets' 10th-rated special teams by DVOA is significantly better than the Jaguars' 30th-rated unit.

Despite all of the COVID-19 issues for the Jets, the team isn't missing a ton of difference-makers because there aren't a lot of noticeable difference-makers on the Jets' roster overall.

The line move has overreacted to the loss of Jets coach Robert Saleh and the mounting list of players, but the Jaguars haven't shown that they're better than any team this season, and I'm not buying into the recent market love for them since the firing of Urban Meyer.

While the Jets offense has been largely incompetent all season, New York has shown signs of life in a few games at home this season — against Tennessee, Philadelphia and Cincinnati — while the Jaguars offense has been almost nonexistent nearly every game for more than two months.

I wouldn't recommend laying points with the Jets, but at even or better, you can fade the Jaguars as road favorites despite the COVID issues for New York (check real-time NFL odds here).

Pick: Jets at Pick’Em or Better

Giants at Eagles Odds

Mike Vitanza: Given how poorly the Giants have played since Daniel Jones’ injury, it’s no surprise to see a total of just 40.5 points in this game. Not only have they failed to sustain many drives with Mike Glennon under center (outside of late, garbage-time drives once the game was far out of reach), they’ll also be without two of their top receiving options in Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney.

That said, Jake Fromm provided an undeniable boost last week for this offense. If he starts, which he reportedly is set to do, he should be an improvement over Glennon, even with extremely limited NFL experience under his belt. If the Giants opt to use Glennon for the third consecutive game, expect the ceiling to be similar to the 21 points we saw from this offense last week against the Chargers.

Either way, we won’t need much from the Giants in this one to hit the over. The Eagles should be able to run the ball with ease against this 29th-ranked Giants rush defense, which should lead to ample red-zone opportunities for this offense. The Eagles currently rank 9th in red-zone touchdown scoring percentage with a 62% success rate, so points should should come early and often.

As such, I’m betting on the Eagles to continue their dominance on the ground in this one and for the Giants to do just enough on the other side to bring the over into play here.

Sharp bettors have also found themselves on the over in this Week 16 matchup. While only 28% of tickets are on the over, 47% of the money is on the same side, indicating that sharp money has been wagering on the same result at time of writing (check real-time public betting data here).

I’m taking the over here at the current number of 40.5 and would be comfortable playing it up to 41 if the line were to shift between now and kickoff.

Pick: Over 40.5 | Bet to: Over 41

Bears at Seahawks Odds

Michael Arinze: Although Seattle comes into this game on shorter rest, the more experienced teams tend to have the edge in this situational spot. And while it's been a rough year for the Seahawks, I'd trust Wilson to have his team ready to play. Historically, favorites laying at least 6.5 points with just five days between games are 50-29 against the spread for 19.37 units.

However, since I've got my sight set on a few teasers this weekend, I recommend teasing Seattle down six points to 0.5 and doing the same with  Green Bay by bringing it down to -1.5 from -7.5 at -110 odds.

I'll also play the same combination and include the Buffalo Bills from +2 to +8 as part of a three-team teaser valued at +165 odds.

I plan to allocate a half unit of my bankroll for each play.

Pick: Two-Team Six-Point Teaser (-110) — Seahawks -0.5 & Packers -1.5

Bonus Pick: Three-Team Six-Point Teaser (+165): Seahawks -0.5, Packers -1.5 & Bills +8

Steelers at Chiefs Odds

Raheem Palmer: This is a really tough game to handicap given the potential absences of one of Patrick Mahomes' top receiving options in Travis Kelce. (Tyreek Hill cleared COVID-19 protocols Saturday.)

With both Hill and Kelce in the lineup, I was looking to lay double digits with the Chiefs against a Steelers team coming off one of the most misleading wins of the year. Without them, though, we've since seen this spread come down from Chiefs -10.5 to -8.5 (check real-time NFL odds here).

At the current number, I still believe you have to take the Chiefs. We just saw the Titans dominate the Steelers on the road without A.J. Brown or Derrick Henry. Pittsburgh simply couldn't get the win due to four turnovers, all which led to Tennessee points.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the league over the last seven weeks and their pass-rushers should dominate against a poor Steelers offensive line. The Chiefs should also have the ability to run the ball at will on this porous Steelers rush defense.

Look for big days from Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams, and while this won't be an easy cover for the Chiefs, I see them eventually pulling ahead by the second half to win their eighth straight and cover the 8.5 points.

Pick: Chiefs -8.5 | Bet to: -9 without Kelce; -10.5 with both Kelce and Hill active

Editor's note: With Hill clearing COVID protocols and Kelce officially out, our expert now likes the Chiefs to -10 (shop for the best real-time line here).

Broncos at Raiders Odds

Phillip Kall: These are teams that seem like they fell backward into their 7-7 records. The Raiders have three overtime wins and then just beat a COVID-19-riddled Browns team on Monday. For the Broncos, scheduling has been very generous to them. Denver has the second-lowest strength of victory of any team at least  at .500, per ESPN.

Now, Las Vegas is still trying to find its offensive rhythm, thanks to a depleted vertical passing game. Even against the Browns, who were missing a plethora of starters, the Raiders stuck with the dink-and-dunk offense. Their longest reception went only 17 yards. Until this offense shows it has pop like early in the year, it can’t be trusted.

As for the Broncos, we have seen even when their running game is going, their quarterbacks can still cost them. Against the Chiefs, it was a pick-six by Teddy Bridgewater. And against the Bengals, it was a red-zone fumble by Drew Lock.

With Lock starting under center, there is just too wide of a range of outcomes. We could easily see him throw two beautiful, perfect deep passes followed by two of the most “what-in-the-world” interceptions.

Rather than trust either team, let’s turn to the total instead. Since we know both are conservative and will likely not be forced to push the envelope by the other, the under is the way to go.

Pick: Under 40.5 | Bet to: 40.5