NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
| Pick |
|---|
| Bengals +6.5 |
| NYJ-NE Under 42.5 |
| Colts +4 |
| IND-SF Under 43 |
Action’s Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals the biggest edges based on his NFL Power Ratings. He has a 430-326-6 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.
Bengals +6.5
The Ravens have dialed back how often they blitz this season, but their 32% blitz rate still ranks fifth-highest in the league. Joe Burrow has gone 31/41 for 306 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions against the blitz this season. His 151.3 QB rating against the blitz ranks second-highest on the season.
The Ravens are dealing with significant injuries along the offensive line. LT Ronnie Stanley was placed on season-ending IR, while Bradley Bozeman and Alejandro Villanueva are both questionable for Week 7. The Bengals defense has been solid this season (ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA), and I believe they’ll keep this game close.
I’d bet this down to +6.
NYJ-NE Under 42.5
I’m projecting the total closer to 39.5, so this is another line I want to lock in quickly As of writing, 79% of the action has been on the over, yet the line has dropped from 43 down to 42.5 (see more public betting data here).
The Jets' secondary has been brutal (23rd in Football Outsiders' DVOA vs. pass) but they might be getting Marcus Maye back, which should help. Either way, I expect the Pats to lean on their run game and defense to get the win here, making this a low-scoring environment.
Bill Belichick will put together a defensive game plan that will frustrate and confuse rookie Zach Wilson, who threw four interceptions against the Pats in the 25-6 loss in Week 2. If you don't already have access to 43 (shop for the best real-time line here), I would recommend buying the half-point up to it since it's a key number for totals, but I still like under at 42.5 as well and would bet this down to 41.5 points.
Colts +4
Weather is expected to be a factor here as the forecast calls for 100% chance of rain, and weather-related terms like “atmospheric river” and “bomb cyclone” are being used. However, I believe the Colts have the edge if this matchup is decided based on a trench war and the running game.
The Colts have one of the best RB trios in the league, led second-year standout Jonathan Taylor. All-Pro LG Quenton Nelson is making his return, which is massive for Indy.
Meanwhile, the 49ers will be without LT Trent Williams (doubtful), a huge blow as he is the key to San Francisco’s offensive line and run blocking. Plus the 49ers just haven’t been able to find consistency running the ball with Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon. The weather forcing a trench war is evening more cutting with Trey Lance out — the No. 3 overall pick would have likely played a huge role in their game plan.
The Colts run defense ranks first in DVOA on the season, led by LB Darius Leonard and former 49er DeForest Buckner. San Francisco, meanwhile, will also be without DTs Javon Kinlaw (who the 49ers drafted in the first round last season to replace Buckner) and Maurice Hurst. Normally, their absence wouldn't matter too much, but in a matchup that will likely be decided in the trenches, it could have an impact. I would be this down to +3.
IND-SF Under 43
Picking this under based on a lot of the same reasoning behind why I like the Colts +4. The weather should force both teams into a run-heavy game plan with key weapons like Trey Lance, George Kittle, T.Y. Hilton, Trent Williams and Braden Smith all expected to miss — both facts that favor the under. At 43, this is a key numbers for totals so it’s critical to get on this now before the market hammers the under, likely once it becomes more well known that rain will be a factor.
