NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
| Pick |
|---|
| Giants +6.5 at Dolphins |
| Chargers +3 at Bengals |
| 49ers-Seahawks Under 45.5 |
Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals the biggest betting edges for Week 13 based on his NFL Power Ratings, which help power our NFL PRO Projections. He has a 483-372-8 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.
Giants +6.5
1 p.m. ET on Sunday
My projected spread for this matchup was Dolphins -2.5, but now with Daniel Jones out of the lineup, I moved it up to 4.5 — two fewer points than the betting market. The four-point swing at books, which included crossing through the key number of three, was too much of an adjustment.
The Dolphins were underrated when they were 1-8, but after a four-win streak that featured victories over unimpressive opponents like the Texans, Jets and Panthers, it seems like the market is now overrating the Dolphins.
I like the Giants down to +6.
Chargers +3
1 p.m. ET on Sunday
I like the idea of locking in Chargers +3 now that LG Matt Feiler is expected to play. However, the Bengals still have two offensive linemen who are questionable in Trey Hopkins and Riley Reiff. Neither is worth anything to the spread, but if both are ruled out, it would become a cluster injury that could prompt the market to move this spread down to +2.5.
Justin Herbert has the skills to be a top-five NFL quarterback, but he's been too inconsistent of late to value him there. One factor that has been predictive of when we will see "good" Herbert is how much a team blitzes — Herbert ranks third in Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play) against four or fewer pass rushers, but 13th out of 36 when teams blitz. The Bengals blitz only 20.8% of the time (sixth-lowest rate), so Herbert should be able to take advantage here.
SF-SEA Under 45.5
4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
Last week, I bet the under 49.5 in 49ers-Vikings, but a handful of early plays ruined it: The 49ers returning a Kirk Cousins interception to the 2-yard line (then scoring on the very next play), the Vikings returning a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown, and Adam Thielen scoring when the Vikings went for it on fourth-and-2. Then the game came to a screeching halt in the fourth quarter, when neither team scored.
I'm certainly not making excuses — a loss is a loss — but that specific loss only set us up with a better number this week.
I'm expecting the 49ers offense to continue to generate run-heavy, clock-killing drives to keep the Seahawks offense off the field. The 49ers will be without their top weapon in Deebo Samuel, which will result in fewer explosive plays. As for the Seahawks, Russell Wilson hasn't looked himself since returning from his finger injury three weeks ago, and I'm not expecting him to magically turn it around this week.
Late-season divisional battles tend to be lower scoring, and this one sets up to be just that. I'm projecting this total closer to 43.5 and I'd bet down to 45 points.
