Jaguars vs. Patriots Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Jacksonville Muster Enough Points To Hit NFL Week 17 Over?

Jaguars vs. Patriots

After yet another loss last week that left them with the worst overall record in football, the Jacksonville Jaguars will head on the road to Gillette Stadium this week for another tough test against the New England Patriots.

The Jaguars (2-13) were able to keep last week’s game close against a poor Jets team, but they ultimately saw themselves fall short in a 26-21 road loss. The Patriots (9-6), meanwhile, fell victim to the Buffalo Bills in a pivotal divisional game.

With a 16-point spread and a total of just 41, oddsmakers don’t expect much from this Jacksonville offense. That said, can we count on the Jaguars to do just enough to put the over in play in this Week 17 AFC bout?

Jaguars vs. Patriots Matchup

Jaguars Face Another Tough Task

After last week’s loss, the Jaguars are squarely in contention for what may amount to back-to-back No. 1 overall picks in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence has notably struggled, completing just 58% of his passes for only nine touchdowns to go along with 14 interceptions. He’s also lost five fumbles, combining for 19 total turnovers — the highest mark of any player in the league this season.

Expectations should remain low this week. He’ll have another difficult assignment against a Patriots defense that ranks third in defensive DVOA, including against the pass. They’ve been particularly stingy against the pass. Per PFF, the Patriots come in with an 82.4 coverage rating, sixth-best in the NFL. If Lawrence wants to avoid adding to his league-leading turnover total, he’ll have to be especially careful this week.

The Jaguars will likely try to lean on the running game, but they'll have to do it without James Robinson. With him out for the season with a torn Achilles, the burden will fall to Dare Ogunbowale.

Ogunbowale was solid last week in relief of Robinson, averaging 3.4 yards per carry on 17 attempts. Ogunbowale was also able to find the end zone in a crucial fourth quarter situation that brought the game to within two points. For the Jaguars to succeed in keeping this relatively close, Ogunbowale will need to succeed on his early-down work.

Jacksonville has chosen to abandon the run early altogether in two of its last three, so early success will be critical.

Patriots Can Still Win AFC East

While last week’s loss knocked them down to the sixth-overall seed in the AFC playoff picture, the Patriots still have an outside shot at the AFC's No. 1 seed and can still take the AFC East back from the Bills if they win their last two games.

They’ll have a favorable draw against a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in total DVOA and 31st against the pass. That bodes well for rookie Mac Jones and this Patriots pass attack that — while not the primary focus of this offense — has proven that it’s more than capable of taking advantage of subpar opponents.

Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, both of Jones’ top options this week, Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne, have strong matchups against this porous Jaguars secondary. Both receivers come in with an 80.1 matchup advantage against their primary defenders, tied for the 15th-best among all players suiting up in Week 17. Meyers has been Jones’ top target by a wide margin, leading the way with 110 targets. To put this in perspective, Jones’ second-most targeted player — tight end Hunter Henry — comes in with just 66.

Running back Damien Harris also figures to be a key cog in the offensive game plan. He’s been running extremely well over the last three weeks, compiling an average of 72 rushing yards per game to go along with four touchdowns. He should feast against this forgettable 16th-ranked Jaguars rush defense. Harris is officially questionable, but he was limited in practice and is expected to play.

Jaguars vs. Patriots Predictions

In a game that the Patriots are expected to run away with, there’s one main question to consider when evaluating a potential over bet on this low 41-point total: Can the Jaguars score enough to put the over in play?

While it hasn’t been pretty, this Jaguars team has managed to squeeze out an average of 14.5 points per game all season and an average of 18.5 points over their last two. Their opponents in those last two were the Texans and Jets, both far inferior defenses to the Patriots, but the point remains that the Jaguars have been able to find the end zone lately.

On the other side, the Patriots should be able to score at will against this 30th-ranked Jaguars defense. Not only does a red-hot Harris get a strong matchup against this 16th-ranked unit, but Jones — and his top receiving options — all have superb individual matchups as well.

Plus, with the Jaguars' propensity for the turnover (their -19 turnover differential ratio is the worst in the NFL), a strong possibility of points via turnover exists for the Patriots' defense as well.

In a game with a total as low as 41, we don’t need much from the Jaguars to put this over in play. Its implied total of 12.8 points becomes very attainable, particularly if the Patriots get up big early and we see softer zone coverage for the majority of the second half. It's also likely we see the Patriots exceed their 29.3 implied team total in this one given the porous nature of this Jaguars defense.

I would advise waiting this one out to see if the total drops down to the key number of 41, but I do still think the current number offers some value. I don’t see the total increasing much from here, but I’d play the over up to 43 if things were to shift prior to kickoff.

Pick: Over 41 | Bet to: 43