Packers vs. Cardinals Odds, Picks, Predictions
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| Packers-Cardinals Under 51.5 |
| Christian Kirk Over 43.5 Rec Yards |
After comparing Packers vs. Cardinals odds to his own projections, our Director of Predictive of Analytics makes two picks for Thursday Night Football: On the over/under and a player prop. Find both below.
Under 51.5
I projected this over/under at 50.5 points before news broke about Davante Adams' availability, then lowered it to 48 based on the injury report.
The Packers offense should struggle without Adams against the second-ranked defense in Football Outsiders' DVOA. I figure the Packers will lean on Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillion and the running game as a result. And if you couple that with their slow pace of play (29th), it sets up nicely for the under.
The Cardinals might not need to score 30+ points to make it 8-0 against a depleted Packers offense. As a result, the Cardinals could also opt for a more conservative run-heavy game plan, especially considering DeAndre Hopkins might not be 100%.
Fifty is a key number for NFL totals, so it’s critical to lock the under in while it’s still at 50.5 or higher.
Christian Kirk Over 43.5 Rec Yards
Kirk's prop offers some hidden value, but it's important to lock it in ASAP.
I picked Donovan Peoples-Jones under 2.5 receptions (+110) as my primetime prop for last Thursday night's game, nearly forgetting part of the reason I liked it was the slight chance that Odell Beckham Jr. would suit up. Sure enough, Beckham was a surprise active, and it sent the juice on DPJ's receptions under to -180 at most books. DPJ then tweaked his groin, was unable to play, and any bets on him were “voided.”
Why do I mention this? Because DeAndre Hopkins’ hamstring injury has an impact on how I'm projecting Kirk.
Hopkins has yet to practice on the short week and is expected to play, barring any pre-game setbacks. I'm under the assumption that Hopkins will not only suit up, but be close to 100% healthy and play his usual complement of snaps.
That said, there are scenarios in which he's limited or ends up being a pre-game scratch. I plotted out three of those different scenarios, their likelihood of coming to fruition, and how I would project Kirk for each one:
Scenario 1 (70% Chance)
- Hopkins' Status: Active, 100% healthy, plays usual role
- Kirk's Projection: 47.5 rec yds (55% chance to go over 43.5)
Scenario 2 (25% Chance)
- Hopkins' Status: Active, 70% healthy, plays more of a "decoy" role
- Kirk's Projection: 50.5 rec yds (58.5% chance to go over 43.5)
Scenario 3 (5% Chance)
- Hopkins' Status: Inactive due to pre-game setback
- Kirk's Projection: 60.5 rec yds (63% chance to go over 43.5)
Kirk has gone over this number in five of seven games, so even if Hopkins is 100%, Kirk still offers value on the over — it's the other scenarios that offer sneaky upside in locking in this prop now.
I would bet this up to 46.5 yards.
