Patriots vs. Colts Odds, Predictions
| Pick |
|---|
| Bet Colts -2.5 |
| Lean Patriots +2.5 |
Bet Colts -2.5
Raheem Palmer: These are two of the NFL's hottest teams as the Colts have won four out of their last five and the Patriots have won seven straight.
Nevertheless, the Patriots haven’t truly been tested over that stretch with wins over the lowly Jets, Browns, Falcons and Titans. Even the Pats' win over the Chargers was deceiving — and their victory over the Bills was hugely aided by the weather.
We’ve seen this defense struggle against top-15 units in the Buccaneers and Cowboys, so I’m expecting something similar against the Colts on Saturday night.
The Colts have also seen their defense slip, but with a bye week and time to prepare, I’m expecting max effort from a team desperate to get into the postseason.
Lean Patriots +2.5
Brandon Anderson: The Colts are dominating games in the trenches with a powerful rushing attack and Offensive Player of the Year hopeful Jonathan Taylor while the Patriots' pass defense has been lockdown while their run defense is at least a little beatable.
Big road spot for Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones against a hot Colts team fighting for its playoff life? That’s the case for Indy.
This is Bill Belichick, though, and he’s had a full bye to prepare for this. The Patriots’ defensive line also ranks third against power rushing attack, but they’re bottom-five against open-field blocking, which the Colts lead the league in.
We know Belichick builds his plan around the opponent's strength, so that means stacking the box and not letting Indianapolis get to that second level. It means trusting his pass defense and forcing Carson Wentz to go out and win the game. Not feeling so good about Indy anymore, are you?
The Colts are playing very good football right now, but the Patriots are even hotter. They rank first in defensive Expected Points Added (EPA) over the past six weeks, and the Pats' passing attack ranks second in EPA per play over that span, with Jones leading the league in both EPA per play and Completion Percentage Over Expectation.
If you’re giving me points, I gotta take the better team, the better defense and the better coach with an extra week to prep. Don’t forget, Belichick is 30-14-2 (68%) against the spread (ATS) as an underdog, including 25-21 straight up with a 39% ROI on the moneyline, per our Action Labs data.
I have to play a half-unit on the Patriots here at +2.5, but if you have access to +3, this pick would get my full confidence.
