I'll be picking five NFL sides each week of the season for DraftKings' Pro Football Millionaire Pick'Em contest.
Note that the spreads for this contest lock on Wednesdays, so some will be stale by the time you read this and thus not readily available outside of the contest. But you can check real-time NFL odds here.
NFL Pick'Em Spreads For Week 7
Here were the five sides for this week's entry:
- Patriots -6.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Chiefs -5.5: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Eagles +3.5: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Colts +3.5: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday
- Saints -4.5: 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday
1. Patriots -6.5 vs. Jets
Home-field advantage is worth less than a point in the NFL this season, but still, this line is slightly perplexing.
The Patriots closed as 5.5-point favorites before their Week 2 win over the Jets. The Jets looked overmatched in that 25-6 loss — Zach Wilson finished 19-of-33 for 210 yards and four interceptions — and yet there's only been a one-point adjustment moving from MetLife Stadium to Gillette Stadium.
Nevertheless, I’m not expecting things to change as Bill Belichick-coached teams are 21-6 straight up against rookie quarterbacks. This Jets offense is downright abysmal, ranking dead last in EPA/play and 30th in Success Rate, so I'm not sure if anything changes on the offensive side of the ball for the Jets.
Looking back at that Week 2 matchup, the Patriots didn't play a great game, going just 3-of-12 on third down with Mac Jones throwing no touchdown passes as he completed 22-of-30 passes for 186 yards — his lowest yardage output of the season. I'm projecting a better offensive performance from the Patriots than their first matchup, which should be more than enough to cover.
2. Chiefs -5.5 at Titans
One of my favorite axioms in NFL betting is "always avoid the public underdog," and there will be no greater public dog in Week 7 than the Titans, who are coming off a 34-31 victory over the Bills on Monday Night Football.
Josh Allen and the Bills offense did whatever they wanted against the Titans, out-gaining them in first downs (28 vs. 16), yards (417 vs. 362) and passing yards (335 vs. 216). However the Bills lost the game in the red zone, where they were just 2-5 including a crucial fourth-down stop to end the game. They also had a tipped passed interception that led to a Titans touchdown to make it a 17-13 game in the second quarter.
Outside of the turnover and explosive plays from Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, though, it felt like the Bills dominated the Titans in the first half.
Making matters worse, the Titans are dealing with a cluster of injuries at cornerback with Caleb Farley out for the season after suffering a torn ACL and Kristian Fulton on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. With a beat-up secondary, expect the Chiefs offense to score on nearly every possession against a Titans defense that's 28th in Football Outsiders' DVOA.
The injuries don't stop there for the Titans, as left tackle Taylor Lewan is in the concussion protocol and Jones didn't practice with a hamstring injury. The Chiefs, meanwhile, will welcome back defensive end Chris Jones and cornerback Charvarius Ward.
Overall, this is great spot to back the Chiefs.
3. Eagles +3.5 at Raiders
The underdog has covered in every single Raiders game this season, and I'm not expecting that to change in Sunday's matchup against the Eagles, who are coming off extended rest following their 28-22 loss to the Bucs on Thursday Night Football before the Week 6 bye.
My model makes this game closer to a pick'em for the Raiders, so at +3.5, there's value in this matchup.
The Eagles have played an extremely tough schedule with games against the Buccaneers, Chiefs, Cowboys and 49ers who rank first, second, fourth and 10th in offensive DVOA. By comparison, the Raiders are just 22nd in DVOA. They're also 19th in EPA/play, 24th in Success Rate and 24th in Early Down Success Rate and will have to deal with this Eagles defense, which is fourth in ESPN's pass rush win rate (52%).
Given the Eagles' ability to rush the passer, Derek Carr could struggle in this matchup as he sees his passer rating drop from 108.1 in a clean pocket to 72.7 when under pressure. Nevertheless, this offense — which is first in explosive pass play rate — likely won't get big plays against an Eagles defense that's allowing an average depth of target (aDOT) of just 6.6 yards, fifth-fewest in the NFL.
With the return of RT Lane Johnson, Jalen Hurts should have time to throw and put the Eagles in position to potentially win this game outright. I'll back them at +3.5.
4. Colts +3.5 at 49ers
The Colts have been playing solid football recently, winning two out of the last three games and probably should have won their Monday Night matchup against the Ravens if it weren't for a blocked field goal.
Nevertheless, I want to back the Colts against the 49ers, who have lost three straight games. As I've stated before, I've never been big on trends, but road underdogs of six or fewer points are 25-9 (73.5%) against the spread (ATS) this season.
Trends aside, this feels like an ideal spot for Carson Wentz and the Colts, who face a 49ers defense that has really struggled in the secondary They're just 26th in Dropback Success Rate (48.5%), and the loss of cornerback Jason Verrett in Week 1 is notable given the struggles of Emmanuel Moseley, Deommodore Lenoir and K’waun Williams, who is returning from a calf injury.
It's tough to know what to expect from the 49ers offense with the possible return of Jimmy Garoppolo, who wasn't particularly great this season. Overall, this line is too high. And with my model making this game 49ers -2, I'll back the Colts at +3.5.
5. Saints -4.5 at Seahawks
I've never been a big trends guy, but since 1999, road favorites coming off a bye are 83-42-2 ATS and 97-37 straight up. And the Saints are a match for their Monday night matchup against the Seahawks.
The Seahawks had a solid performance in their Week 6 loss to the Steelers, coming back from a 14-0 halftime deficit to tie the game and take it into overtime. Still, Geno Smith had an aDOT of just 3.4 yards, and it's clear they won't be able to rely on simply running the ball against a Saints defense that's second in rush defense DVOA and eighth in rushing success rate (43.7%).
I'm still pricing the loss of Russell Wilson to Smith as one of the biggest drop-offs we would see from a starting quarterback to a backup in the NFL, and I think it could rear its ugly head in this matchup.
The Seahawks are still a bad defense that ranks 22nd in defensive DVOA and has benefited from a favorable schedule of opposing offenses. Outside of the Titans, Vikings and Rams, the Seahawks opened the season in Carson Wentz's first start with the Colts after not playing or practicing during the preseason, a 49ers team that lost Jimmy Garoppolo mid-game and had to turn to rookie Trey Lance, and the Steelers with an old Ben Roethlisberger. Although a washed up Big Ben didn't take advantage of this defense that's 31st in Dropback Success Rate (54.1%), I'm confident Jameis Winston will.
I'll back the Saints at -4.5.
