NFL Odds, Picks & Previews
Chiefs at Dolphins Odds & Pick
Mike Vitanza: While the Dolphins have been playing at an extremely high level, their competition of late has not been anything to write home about. Yes, they’ve allowed just 23 total points over their past three games, but their opponents have been the 2-9-1 Bengals, 0-12 Jets and 4-8 Broncos.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have dominated on the offensive side of the ball and have playmakers in Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce who simply cannot all be contained at once.
Even with the weak schedule over the past few weeks, the Dolphins still rank just 12th overall in Pro Football Focus defensive rankings (66.1), 14th in pass rush (72.1) and 15th in coverage rating (61.7). While respectable, those numbers are no match for one of the best offenses we’ve seen in a long time.
All of that coupled with the Chiefs success against the spread on the road under Andy Reid has me confidently betting the Chiefs at the current line of -7.
Sharps agree: As of Saturday evening, 55% of tickets and 78% of the money is on the Chiefs to cover the spread, a 23% difference (go to public betting data here). While -7 is the much preferred number, I’m comfortable taking this up to -8.
PICK: Chiefs -7 [Bet now at BetMGM]
Vikings at Buccaneers Odds & Pick
Michael Arinze: The Buccaneers opened as 6.5-point favorites. There was a 15 to 20 cent juice on the line, which signaled there was a good chance it would go up prior to kickoff and I wouldn't be surprised if gets as high as 7.5 (see real-time NFL odds).
Part of this line move likely has to do with the expected absences of Eric Kendricks and Kyle Rudolph, but while the amount of explosive plays the Vikings allow does concern me, their red-zone defense suggests that their unit is willing to bend but not break. Minnesota has the offensive weapons to keep pace with Tampa Bay, and Kirk Cousins is playing some of the best football of his career.
This season, conference games with favorites of at least six points with more than a week of rest have struggled to win by margin.
I'll gladly place my trust in Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer, who according to our Bet Labs database, is 64-41-1 for 21.5 units against the spread — though I am going to wait to see how high this line goes before looking to back the underdogs.
Pick: Vikings +7 or better [Bet at BetMGM]
Cardinals at Giants Odds & Pick
Mike Vitanza: While it would have been unfathomable to think early in the season, the Giants have transformed into a scary football team to be facing down the stretch.
Despite the advantage that the Cardinals may have in name-brand power and highlight-reel moments from earlier this year, the fact is that the Giants are playing better football at the moment.
This Giants defense has the personnel to make things difficult for the Cardinals on the offensive side of the ball, while their offense — assuming Daniel Jones plays — also has an advantage over a poor Cardinals defense that has struggled in nearly all facets of the game.
While I won't go as far to say they will win outright, I am hammering them at +3 in a game that should at least be close throughout. I’m not looking to move lower than +3, but I do think the Giants have enough firepower to cover the spread.
Pick: Giants +3 [Bet now at BetMGM]
Titans at Jaguars Odds & Pick
Mike Randle: The first time these two teams met back in Week 2, the Titans escaped with a 33-30 victory. With a weather forecast of 74 degrees and limited wind, there's no reason to doubt another high-scoring affair.
Tennessee is 21-4-1 to the over in the regular season with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, including 9-2-1 this season. I'm taking the over 51.5 in a matchup that has the second-highest total on Sunday's slate and would bet it up to 53.5 points.
Pick: Over 51.5 [Bet at BetMGM]
Cowboys at Bengals Odds & Pick
Mike Randle: With a weather forecast of 43 degrees and limited winds, I'm banking on both offenses to enjoy one of their best games of the season. Giovani Bernard, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd provide enough opportunities for Allen to guide this offense past 20 points.
Andy Dalton will be highly motivated with a "revenge game" narrative, and the Bengals will have no answer for the receiving quartet of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz.
With Ezekiel Elliott and Bernard both having their most favorable matchups on the remaining schedule, I see a high-scoring game in Cincinnati.
I took the over at 42.5 but like it up to 43.5 points.
Pick: Over 42.5 [Bet at BetMGM]
Texans at Bears Odds & Pick
Phillip Kall: The deficiencies on the Texans’ defense force Deshaun Watson to play at a high level just to compete. Missing Will Fuller and David Johnson makes the task for Watson more difficult. Even if he can overcome the lack of talent around him, it remains to be seen whether the Texans’ defense can make enough stops.
The weather looks to set up a cold, windy game in Chicago. Offensively, this will set up the Bears to use the game plan from last week, which relies on the run and short passes. Defensively, the wind provides free help in slowing down the second-ranked passing offense.
I like the Bears to win but will still take the points.
Pick: Bears +1.5 (ML if you're adventurous) [Bet at PointsBet]
Broncos at Panthers Odds & Pick
Phillip Kall: The Broncos have relied on their running game for offensive success in recent weeks. However, against an improved Panthers’ run defense, the Broncos may be forced to put the ball in Drew Lock’s hand and attack through the air.
Relying on the pass carries more risk, as Lock’s poor play often leads to turnovers. With three of Denver’s top corners out, those turnovers may quickly turn into points and a deficit.
Taking advantage of the Broncos' depleted defense will have an extra layer of difficulty for the Panthers with D.J. Moore likely out. Fortunately, Curtis Samuel possesses the skillset necessary to replace Moore.
With advantages on the outside, this spot appears set for Teddy Bridgewater to produce as he did during the Panthers' three-win streak.
Pick: Panthers -3 [Bet at PointsBet]
Colts at Raiders Odds & Pick
Raheem Palmer: Excluding their Week 1 loss to the Jaguars, the Colts have performed well against below-average defenses. They've scored 28, 36, 31, 41, 34, 34, 26 and 26 points against the Vikings, Jets, Bengals, Lions, Titans, Packers, Titans (again) and Texans.
Indianapolis' worst offensive performances was against Baltimore and Chicago, which are ranked seventh and eighth in defensive DVOA and give up 19.3 and 23.7 points per game. It's no surprise that the Colts scored 10 and 19 points in those matchups. By comparison, Las Vegas is just 24th in defensive DVOA and are giving up 28.9 points per game.
With both the offensive line and the receiving weapons healthy, the Colts should see an above-average scoring output in this matchup.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts have struggled against top-10 offenses and the Raiders are on the cusp of that. This Raiders offense is arguably better than any offense the Colts have faced outside of the Packers, Titans and Texans.
My projections for this game make this 53.5 so I'll look to play the over.
Pick: Over 51.5 [Bet at BetMGM]
Jets at Seahawks Odds & Pick
Brad Cunningham: With the Seahawks having their offense and defense going in opposite directions, combined with how poor the Jets offense has been this season, we should see a low-scoring game. There's also some light rain/drizzle in the forecast that could play a factor for both offenses.
I have this total projected at 41.87, so there's value on the under 47.5 — I would play it down to 45 points.
Pick: Under 47.5 [Bet at DraftKings]
Saints at Eagles Odds & Pick
Brandon Anderson: This 42.5-point total means that books expect a low-scoring, defensive game, and that makes a lot of sense.
The Saints probably aren't a threat to put up a huge number here, since they haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire with Taysom Hill. And it's really hard to see Philly's offense breaking out in this tough spot with a rookie quarterback debuting against what is ostensibly the hottest defense in the league.
Even at 43, the under is tempting.
You figure that the Saints are almost certain to score at least in the 20s. Their 21 points last week were their fewest of the season. And if you figure they at least get to that 21-24 range, this game is going under unless the Eagles get the win — and if you think Philly has a shot at winning outright, you should obviously play the long odds moneyline instead.
But I'm keeping things simple here and just grabbing the better team, especially if I can find this line at -7 (shop real-time odds). There's a good chance it jumps that key number by kickoff, but I'd feel pretty comfortable playing the Saints up to double digits here. They've won by double-digits in four of their last five games, and the Eagles have lost four straight, twice by double digits.
Philadelphia's offense has been one of the worst in the league, and it's really hard to see that improving overnight. If you can't get -7 and you get nervous, you may want to tease the Saints down. You could tease them with the under here, too, if you like — if the Saints do lose, it's not going to be in a high-scoring game.
Pick: Saints -7.5 [Bet at BetMGM]
Packers at Lions Odds & Pick
Michael Arinze: Green Bay opened at -8, but the number is already as high as -9 at some books (compare real-time lines). Due to the uncertainty of this season, we've seen plenty of line moves occur after the Friday injury report is released as opposed to earlier in the week like in previous seasons. This line move is likely due to Detroit having three starters already ruled out for the game.
While I'm often reluctant to lay this kind of price with a heavy favorite, I'd prefer to use the the Packers as a teaser leg and cross through the key numbers of seven and three.
FanDuel is currently offering Green Bay as an 8.5-point favorite. A six-point teaser would bring this number down to 2.5, making it very attractive as a potential leg on any teaser.
It helps that Aaron Rodgers is 6-1 playing indoors as a road favorite of at least six points. The only blemish on his record was a 7-3 loss in 2010 when Rodgers was knocked out of the game in the second quarter due to a concussion. This game ticks all the boxes of what I'd look for when playing a teaser, and it's worth a look to add on to any ticket you have on Sunday.
Pick: Tease Packers -8.5 to -2.5 [Bet at FanDuel]
Washington at 49ers Odds & Pick
Brandon Anderson: Points will come at a premium in this game, which is why the total is so low. Even there, the under is pretty tempting. Washington might be lucky to hit 20 points against this tough defense, and the 49ers are averaging fewer than 20 points over their last four outings.
The other angle here is playing on recency bias.
Before the games Monday, San Francisco would have been considered a moderately comfortable favorite in this game. Buffalo's pass attack was a tough matchup but doesn't change what this team does well, and Washington could be in for an adrenaline letdown after getting its signature win over Pittsburgh.
You could argue that Washington just won its Super Bowl.
The best-case scenario from here is probably getting to 7-9 and a close home playoff loss in Round 1. Washington's win in Pittsburgh was the team's apex this season.
This line has been bet down because of it, but don't forget that Washington trailed by 14 in that game with pundits openly wondering when Alex Smith would be benched. It's not like Washington is great now, so don't buy too much hype.
Teasing the under up to near 50 feels like a pretty safe play here, if you've got another teaser leg. Each of these teams has seen a total under 50 in nine of their 12 games so far this season, so a high-scoring game is unlikely. But even at 43.5, the under is a solid play. It covers you for a defensive battle and also gives you extra outs if either one of these offenses just lays a complete egg.
I also like the 49ers to cover as the better team, even with all the injuries, but I'm only willing to play them below -3 (compare real-time lines).
Picks: 49ers -2.5; Under 43.5 [Bet at DraftKings]
Falcons at Chargers Odds & Pick
Raheem Palmer: Wise guys will likely line up to take +3 or +3.5 on the Chargers if and when the lines move, and honestly, I don’t care. Many of these same "sharps" have fallen victim to trying to catch a falling knife by betting the Eagles, who are just 4-8 against the spread this season.
I can’t stress this enough: You’re lighting money on fire by backing an Anthony Lynn-coached team at this point. Last week, I faded the Chargers and I’m going back to the well again.
Why wouldn’t I?
The Chargers have not beaten a team with more than two wins — their three victories have come against the Jets (0-12), Jaguars (1-11) and Bengals (2-9) in Joe Burrow’s first start of his career. Those teams have a combined record of 3-32 with a point differential of -345, and those games were dog fights in which the Chargers had legitimate chances of losing.
Their season is over, yet the Chargers remain committed to Lynn, who is now 29-31 during his tenure and an abysmal 8-20 since the start of 2019. Even more troubling, the Chargers are 4-16 in one-score games since the beginning of 2019, by far the worst in the NFL.
With the Falcons flipping between underdogs and favorites throughout the week, we could be looking at another close game. The Chargers have played the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Saints tough, but since then, they've been a disaster.
The Falcons, on the other hand, have improved under Raheem Morris and have continued to fight this season. Despite a sensational rookie season from Justin Herbert, the Chargers appeared to have quit on Lynn, who is the epitome of gross incompetence.
Overall, this is more of a fade of Lynn and the Chargers than a play on the Falcons. Until the Chargers replace Lynn, I'll be fading this Chargers team — even against a Falcons team that's missing Jones.
Pick: Falcons +1 [Bet at BetMGM]
