NFL Odds, Picks & Previews
Colts vs. Steelers Odds & Pick
BJ Cunningham: In my opinion, this line is an overreaction to Pittsburgh's recent losing streak. The Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and if their offense can just score 20 points, they should be able to win this game.
I have Pittsburgh projected as about a 4.5-point favorite, so I see value on the Steelers to -2.
Pick: Steelers -1 (to -2) [Bet at BetMGM]
Falcons vs. Chiefs Odds & Pick
Michael Arinze: Key injuries on both sides paired with a windy forecast have shifted my focus to two props in this game.
Atlanta will be without two key starters on its offensive line, which could impact its ability to pass block. Matt Ryan will likely need to get the ball out quickly, which could mean more targets and receptions for Russell Gage in the slot.
DraftKings has set Gage’s reception total at 4.5 while our FantasyLabs prop tool projects him at 5.2 catches, so a play on the over at -104 is worth a look.
As for the Chiefs, they've had fewer targets to their running backs, particularly with Travis Kelce's dominance.
Kelce has had double-digit targets in six of his last seven games. Coming into Week 16, he's just six yards behind DeAndre Hopkins for the most receiving yards in the league. Should Kelce finish the season with the most, he would be the first tight end in NFL history to achieve this feat.
The Chiefs are making a concerted effort to get Kelce the ball, so we can expect their running backs to continue to lose target shares to the tight end.
BetMGM has set Le'Veon Bell's receiving yardage line set at 21.5, while our FantasyLabs tool is projecting him for 19.2 yards. I agree with that projection and like this prop to stay under the number.
Picks: Russell Gage Over 4.5 Rec (-104) [Bet at DraftKings]
Le'Veon Bell Under 21.5 Rec Yards (-111) [Bet at BetMGM]
Giants vs. Ravens Odds & Pick
Phillip Kall: Against the Giants, the Ravens will see more resistance than they have in recent weeks, which should prevent them from having the type of explosiveness we've seen from the offense over their hot streak.
However, the Cardinals and Browns still beat the Giants comfortably over the past two weeks while scoring only 26 and 20 points. The Ravens could do much of the same.
The Giants' offense will need to play better if they hope to break out of their two-game slump. Against the Ravens, who rank fourth in points scored and ninth in yards allowed, that will be an uphill battle.
With the Ravens’ offense clicking, the Giants’ front will have trouble stopping the Ravens for four quarters.
While Baltimore's secondary is shorthanded due to injuries, it's hard to envision Colt McCoy playing well enough to keep pace. This sets the stage for a game similar to New York's previous two matchups — low-scoring but never truly competitive.
Picks: Ravens -9.5; Under 44 [Bet at PointsBet]
Bears vs. Jaguars Odds & Pick
Mike Randle: NFL teams certainly do not "tank," but the move back to Mike Glennon after he was replaced by Gardner Minshew in Week 15 has raised eyebrows. More importantly, since the Jaguars offense has relied on running back James Robinson (ankle) so heavily, they'll be stifled without him.
The Bears' rushing attack and defense have been their most reliable units this season — and they should be enough to get the cover on Sunday.
I'm laying the 7.5 points on the road with the Bears in a game that they desperately need to bolster their playoff chances.
Pick: Bears -7.5 [Bet at FanDuel]
Browns vs. Jets Odds & Pick
Phillip Kall: Missing their top-three receiving options continuing due to COVID-19 tracing will make it difficult for the Browns to continue their dominant stretch of passing the football.
Fortunately, they have an elite run game to turn to: If all goes well for the Browns, their rushing attack will make it so their passing game is unnessrcary.
Without star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, the Jets defense will have an extra layer of difficulty stopping the Browns. It will be up to Sam Darnold and the Jets offense to put up points and force the Browns to throw. However, with New York's offense ranked last in yards and points, that will be no easy task.
With Cleveland's comfort playing conservatively and New York's offense struggling to do much of anything, the under is the way to go.
Pick: Under 45.5 [Bet at DraftKings]
Bengals vs. Texans Odds & Pick
Mike Randle: This is a classic letdown spot for the Bengals after their massive upset of their division rival in the Steelers. Coming off a short week with injuries to Tyler Boyd and uncertainty at quarterback, this has all the makings of a Texans win.
I'm laying the big number with Houston at home. Look for Deshaun Watson to have one of his best games of the season against Cincinnati's limited pass rush.
Pick: Texans -7 (to -8) [Bet at BetMGM]
Broncos vs. Chargers Odds & Pick
Michael Arinze: With two games left, the Chargers look determined to keep their win streak alive.
They have the momentum going into this game, and they’re probably the more motivated side once you factor in the revenge angle. And while they're always capable of imploding — particularly with Lynn at the helm, this game should favor Herbert given the injuries to the Broncos' secondary.
The fact that Los Angeles has been able to win consecutive close games bodes well for the team's psyche in this matchup. In fact, the Chargers have historically done well against the spread coming off games with a margin of three or fewer points, according to our Bet Labs database:
If effort is a big part of how teams respond after close games, the Chargers will put forth a representative performance.
PointsBet is offering them as 3-point favorites while other sportsbooks have already moved the line by a half-point. I'll go ahead and lock in Chargers at -3 or better while it’s still available.
Pick: Chargers -3 [Bet at PointsBet]
Panthers vs. Washington Odds & Pick
| Odds as of Saturday night and via PointsBet, where you can bet $20 on the Panthers or Football Team to win $125 if they score. | |
Mike Vitanza: Despite uncertainty at quarterback, the Football Team holds comfortable advantages against nearly all aspects of the Panthers defense. If the Football Team has proven anything all season, it’s that they can find ways to get it done with whoever is healthy and on the field.
While Alex Smith would be a small upgrade to Dwayne Haskins, the offensive key in this one will be the Football Team’s ability to move to the ball via the run and check-down — something they’ve had success with under both signal-callers this season. Using that game plan, they should be able to control the clock on offense and limit the Panthers' offensive opportunities with their stifling defense.
Big money has drawn the same conclusion: According to our public betting data, 67% of tickets and 87% of the money is on Washington as of Saturday night.
I'm confidently betting the Football Team to cover and am comfortable taking them all the way up to -2.5.
Pick: Washington -1 [Bet at PointsBet]
Eagles vs. Cowboys Odds & Pick
Raheem Palmer: The Eagles have covered the spread in only one of the six games they've been favored in this season, but that trend should change with Jalen Hurts against the Cowboys.
I don't put much stock in the Cowboys' win over the Bengals, and last week's win over the 49ers was misleading: San Francisco out-gained Dallas in first downs, yards, yards per play, passing yards, rushing yards and time of possession. So why did the Cowboys win? They were the beneficiary of four turnovers, which the Eagles haven't had many of since moving onto Hurts.
Doug Pederson has a history of rallying the troops for a stretch run — he's 15-5 over the final four weeks of a season during his five-year tenure with the Eagles.
Look for the Eagles to win and keep their playoff hopes alive for a potential NFC showdown next week against the Football Team. Should Washington lose to Carolina on Sunday, the winner of the Week 17 matchup between the Eagles and Football Team will determine the NFC East champion.
With that said, I recommend adding Eagles +500 to win the division to your futures portfolio.
I would also highly encourage shopping for the Eagles at -2.5, which you can use our NFL odds page to do. While taking -3 on a game that opened at -1.5 generally feels like a losing proposition, I ultimately expect the Eagles to win comfortably so would still bet them there.
Pick: Eagles -3 [Bet at Parx]
Rams vs. Seahawks Odds & Pick
Raheem Palmer: This is the ultimate buy-low spot for the Rams, who will be looking to rebound from their 23-16 loss to the previously-winless Jets as 17.5-point home favorites.
One trend working in the Rams' favor is that over the past 10 seasons, NFL teams that outright lose as double-digit favorite are 25-11-1 (69%) against the spread in their next game. We've actually seen this play out twice in 2020 with the Chiefs and Seahawks following up their losses to the Raiders and Giants with big wins. I expect the Rams to be the third.
The Seahawks aren't winning with defense like they did in the Legion of Boom Era.
The Seahawks have lost to the Colt McCoy-quarterbacked Giants and gave Dwayne Haskins a (failed) opportunity to lead a potential game-winning drive for the Football Team.
This team has to win with offense. Unfortunately, Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has really stifled this unit by moving away from "letting Russ Cook" and back to the run-first philosophy that had this team playing from behind for much of the past few seasons.
Nevertheless, with a lack of pass rush from the Seahawks and an archaic offensive philosophy, it's not a surprise that Sean McVay continues to dominate Pete Carroll: McVay is 5-2 straight-up in their series. I expect that to continue on Sunday.
There's a reason sharp money moved this line from Seahawks -2.5 to -1 — the Rams have the better defense, and based on how the Seahawks choose to approach games, the Rams also have the better offense.
Outside of Wilson, the Rams are clearly the better team.
I'll back the Rams in this spot and also add their +1400 odds to win the Super Bowl to my futures portfolio. Before their loss to the Jets, we saw sharp money hit the screen on Rams' Super Bowl futures, but this feels like a solid play now with an even better number considering that a win against the Seahawks would put them in the driver's seat of the NFC West.
Pick: Rams +1 (down to pick'em) [Bet at BetMGM]
