Giants vs. Rams NFL Odds
| Giants Odds | +9 |
| Rams Odds | -9 |
| Over/Under | 48.5 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
A healthy, rested Los Angeles Rams team is heading to New York to take on the injured Giants. Can the G-Men stop a top-five offense? Also, how will the Giants' quarterback situation affect the game?
Let's dig in.
Rams Offense Is Humming
When the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford in the offseason, the consensus was that L.A.'s passing offense would take a step forward. And boy has it.
The Rams passing offense this season ranks first in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play at a scorching 0.384. This pace is only slightly below the 2020 Packers (0.401 per play), an offense that won Aaron Rodgers the MVP award.
And it's not like this Rams offense is doing this against bad teams. By my numbers, four of the five defenses they have played are above average, with the Tampa Bay and Arizona grading out quite strongly.
A big part of their success has been Stafford. His ability to improvise far exceeds what Sean McVay got out of Jared Goff, who could make a lot of wide open throws and had plenty of good games. Still, though, it's pretty clear that Stafford has been an upgrade.
The supporting cast has stepped up in a big way. We knew that Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp were a great tandem, but Van Jefferson has given the Rams a consistent third option. Los Angeles has even getting production out of the ageless DeSean Jackson. And to date, this offensive line grades out as one of the best in the NFL.
The worry with the Rams in the preseason was lack of depth at key positions like on the offensive and defensive lines and at cornerback. So far, so good for Los Angeles in terms of staying healthy, though, with only one starter (cornerback Darious Williams) missing this week.
Giants Defense Has Disappointed…
I had high hopes for this Giants team in 2021. The defense took a meaningful step forward last season under coordinator Patrick Graham, and they brought in meaningful offensive weapons (Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney) in support of Daniel Jones, who received good reviews during training camp.
The coaching staff was a concern — as evidenced by players retiring during camp — but in a seemingly weak division, I thought the Giants could make some noise.
The results have not been good so far, and the team is in serious trouble. The Giants dropped two very winnable games to Washington and Atlanta, saved their season in New Orleans and proceeded to get demolished in Dallas.
The defense that graded out near the top 10 last season has been quite poor. New York's passing defense is bottom seven in EPA/play allowed and bottom 10 in both EPA/rush and rushing success rate allowed. The Giants can't get off the field on third down, giving up the third-highest EPA/play on third downs this season.
A big part of that is the lack of pressure. The Giants blitz at a top-10 rate but have the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL, only ahead of Houston and Indianapolis. The Giants were relying on young edge rushers Azeez Ojulari and Lorenzo Carter to step up this season, but both have failed to get to the opposing quarterback. Leonard Williams is a great player, but he's a run stopper, not an interior rusher.
… And Their Offense Is Banged Up
We can start with the quarterback situation.
Daniel Jones is somehow practicing after suffering a concussion in Dallas and may play Sunday. But if he does go, I'm not expecting him to play near the top end of his range. We saw Jones play injured last season in Week 14 against Arizona on a bum ankle. The Cardinals sacked him eight times and forced five fumbles.
Now, a concussion is different than an ankle injury, but offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is likely going to dial back the playbook. Jones is too valuable to the franchise right now, and having him run around with Aaron Donald on the field is shortsighted.
If we do see Jones play, I expect a very conservative game-plan from the Giants. A big piece of Jones' success this year has been running, averaging more than six yards per carry and a pair of red-zone touchdown runs. This Giants offense is already 30th in red-zone touchdown percentage — not having Jones' legs would hurt that further.
A banged-up Jones is likely still better than backup Mike Glennon, though. Over the past four seasons, of QBs with more than 250 snaps, Glennon is 62nd out of 66 QBs in EPA/play. The only QBs he's ahead of? Blaine Gabbert, Brian Hoyer, Dwayne Haskins and Josh Rosen. Yikes.
Glennon's best seasons were 2013 and 2014 — if you include those in the sample, he rises to 72nd out of 95, around the likes of Blake Bortles and Colt McCoy.
I view Glennon as a fairly substantial downgrade from Jones, worth about three points on average. If Jones is hurt, the gap is smaller, but the upside for the offense is likely still higher with Jones due to the deep-passing game he brings.
The Giants are missing a lot of other important offensive pieces. Neither Saquon Barkley or Golladay are going to play, and there are significant injuries on the offensive line. As a whole, New York's play up front on offense has been better than anticipated, but the Giants will likely be missing left tackle Andrew Thomas (questionable), as well as its entire starting corps on the interior.
NFL Picks: Rams vs. Giants
Were we to have a healthy Jones in this game, I would price it at LA -7, in line with the lookahead. He seems to be trending in as of writing, which on the surface is a boost for the Giants. But if he does go, New York would likely be conservative and limit his running, which hurts their overall offensive profile.
If Jones is confirmed in, this market will move towards New York, and we're already seeing that with FanDuel down to Rams -8.
However, I don't think we can expect an average performance out of a banged-up Jones. This Rams defense should be able to get right, and the Giants will struggle to keep up with this offense.
The Rams should be able to name their score in this game. Their offensive line has a major mismatch against a Giants defensive line that has struggled to pressure anyone. Furthermore, Los Angles is coming off some extra rest, having played on Thursday night back in Week 5, which should give McVay a bit of extra time to scheme against a porous secondary.
I like the Rams at the price of -8, but we may get better. Keep an eye for market move and pounce if this continues to trickle down.
Pick: Rams -8
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