A team total over. Two road favorites. A home dog. An over/under.
Our NFL betting analysts detail their favorite picks for Sunday's early afternoon games. Let's dive right in!
NFL Odds & Picks
Saints vs. Washington
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Raheem Palmer: The New Orleans Saints are in a prime position to go into their bye week with a victory against the Washington Football Team who's defense might be the most overrated unit in the league.
While many expected this defense to exert its dominance with Chase Young and Montez Sweat, the unit is 29th in points allowed, giving up 30.5 points per game while ranking 29th in EPA/play, 20th in Success Rate, 30th in Dropback EPA/play and 23rd in Dropback Success Rate.
Washington also ranks last in third-down conversion percentage (59.68%) and can't get off the field. Add in a struggling secondary and I expect Jameis Winston and the Saints to put up a solid performance on offense this week.
Washington was hit with the injury bug this week and will be dealing with the absence of tight end Logan Thomas who suffered a hamstring injury in Week 4. Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff suffered a sprained MCL last week as well.
Scherff is a big loss on the offensive line, and with wide receivers Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown and Cam Sims all missing practice, it's tough to expect Taylor Heinicke and this offense to repeat last week's performance against a against what will be a better defense in the Saints.
Eagles vs. Panthers
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Billy Ward: The Eagles have scored at least 21 points in three of four games this year. Besides his electric rushing ability, Jalen Hurts is much improved as a passer. He's 10th in the NFL in adjusted yards per passing attempt (which takes sacks and turnovers into consideration).
The Panthers defense looks good on paper, but they played their first three games against the Jets, Saints and Texans. In their first game against a competent NFL quarterback, they allowed the Cowboys to put up 36 points. Carolina will also be without starting linebacker Shaq Thompson this week, which is what put me over the edge on this bet. It's hard to hold most NFL offenses to 20 points or fewer these, days, and harder still without a key defensive starter.
I'd take this bet up to 21, but not much more than that.
Titans vs. Jaguars
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Brandon Anderson: This line was a full touchdown when it first opened, but then the Titans went out and lost to the Jets in Week 4 and the line was cut in half.
It’s never a good thing losing to the Jets, but the Titans shouldn’t be too worried. They dominated that game statistically, racking up yardage and running 93 plays to just 60 for the Jets, tallying a whopping 30 first downs and moving the ball with ease all game. And the Titans did that without both of their star wideouts, with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones out injured.
It was the mistakes that did Tennessee in. The Titans were sacked seven times and had 98 penalty yards, plus they were 5-of-19 on third down and 2-of-5 in the red zone.
Those are the sort of thing that tend to even out over time, but do you know what doesn’t even out? Having an awful head coach with one foot already out the door at his restaurant in Columbus. Urban Meyer continues to find new ways to look bad every week, and the Jaguars have been terrible.
Tennessee doesn’t look great, but the Titans aren’t going to crap the bed against a second straight winless team. Besides, they own the Jags. The Titans have won seven of eight, with four of those wins by 21 points, and Derrick Henry eats this Jags team for brunch and goes back for seconds. I’d bet this to -5.5.
Read more about my pick — and other picks for this week — in my game-by-game breakdown.
Broncos vs. Steelers
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Mike Randle: The Pittsburgh Steelers have reached a critical juncture in Week 5. Pittsburgh should be close to fully healthy with wide receivers Chase Claypool (hamstring) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (ribs) returning to full practice on Friday.
Ben Roethlisberger has struggled this year, but — with a full receiving core at home — this should be his best game of the season. Diontae Johnson has been his go-to guy, ranking first among all wide receivers in Hog Rate per PlayerProfiler, with a 24.6% target per snap rate.
The Steelers defense was bolstered by the return of linebacker T.J. Watt (groin), who ranks seventh in pass rush grade, per PFF. Watt helps keep Pittsburgh's run defense elite, ranking seventh-best in DVOA.
The Steelers have struggled defending wide receivers on deep passes, something Denver does not excel at with Bridgewater under center. With Jerry Jeudy still out and Courtland Sutton potentially limited, the Broncos receiving corps will be much less challenging than any team they have faced this season.
Head coach Mike Tomlin has thrived in these situations throughout his tenure with the Steelers. In 16 games as a home underdog, Tomlin has covered at a 78.6% rate with a +47.2% return on investment (ROI) per Action Labs.
Pittsburgh found a way to earn a tough road win at Buffalo in Week 1. Despite losing three games in a row, including two at home, I'm counting on Tomlin's crew coming up with a big effort against a shorthanded and conservative Denver team.
Patriots vs. Texans
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Chris Raybon: Disgusting under alert: The Patriots are averaging 17.8 points per game (27th), while the Texans are at 16.8 (30th), including just 10.0 against non-Jaguars opponents and 4.5 points per game in Davis Mills’ two starts.
With an offensive line down right guard Shaq Mason (abdomen) and right tackle Trent Brown (calf), while left tackle isaiah Wynn and left guard Mike Onwenu have spent the entire week on the COVID-19 reserve and questionable to play, Bill Belichick isn’t going play play aggressive on offense against a point-average Texans offense.
This is business as usual for Belichick on the road, as Patriots road unders are 28-13 (66%) since 2016.
It’s also worth noting that unders when the home team is coming off a shutout are 19-10 since 2010. I'd bet this to 37.
