Action’s Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals the biggest edges based on his NFL Power Ratings. He has a 412-310-4 (57%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.
Week 5 Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| 49ers +5.5 @ Cardinals |
| Bears +5.5 @ Raiders |
| Bengals +3 vs. Packers |
| DET-MIN Under 49.5 |
49ers +5.5
Trey Lance will be making his NFL debut for the injured Jimmy G. While the No. 3 overall pick may not be quite NFL ready, I'm only docking the 49ers' power rating one point as they transition to their "backup" QB.
Lance's dual-threat ability should allow him to overcome the inefficiencies he still has as a passer. Additionally, the 49ers are getting back cornerback Josh Norman, while the Cardinals will be without their top corner Byron Murphy. It's an excellent time to "sell high" on the remaining undefeated team in the NFL, the 4-0 Cardinals, as some pundits consider them the No. 1 team in the NFL now.
Bears +5.5
Editor's Note:ESPN's Adam Schefter reported late Saturday night that Khalil Mack is expected to play Sunday.
The Raiders are another team I'm actively fading. They are 3-1 despite averaging 16:01 game time leading compared to 32:16 average game time trailing. The Bears offense looked much better after offensive coordinator Bill Lazor assumed the play-calling duties from head coach Matt Nagy. I feel better backing them knowing they intend to stick with that plan from now on.
I will wait to lock in this bet once Khalil Mack is ruled active. Since it's a revenge game for him, I'm guessing he is very likely to play through his ribs/foot injuries.
Bengals +3
The Bengals will be getting safety Jessie Bates back this week, which is massive for their defense. In addition, Chidobe Awuizie is expected to return, which means this is the first game all season the Bengals will have all starting cornerbacks active.
The Packers continue to battle injuries on their offensive line. Center Josh Meyers has been ruled out, and guard Elgton Jenkins remains questionable despite missing the past two games due to an ankle injury.
Grab this number at +3 while you still can. It's dropping to +2.5 at most books.
DET-MIN Under 49.5
The Lions are dealing with a cluster of injuries on their offensive line. Left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow are both on IR — two massive losses for Detroit. First-rounder Penei Sewell is also a game-time decision, and even if he's able to suit up, I'm not sure Jared Goff will have much protection this week.
Based on this news, the market moved appropriately from Vikings -8.5 to -10, but the total remains parked at 49. The total should have dropped closer to 47.5 given the Lions o-line injuries, and the Vikings may opt to become more run-heavy if the game gets out of hand early on. I'm projecting this game closer to 46.5 as a result. I would bet down to 48.
