NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Cardinals at Browns
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Chris Raybon: With winds of 20-plus miles per hour expected in Cleveland and the Cardinals making the trip without head coach and play-caller Kliff Kingsbury, this sets up as a great spot for the Browns, even without bruising running back Nick Chubb (out-calf).
The Browns (first) rate better than the Cardinals (13th) in rushing offense. They also are ranked fifth in run defense while the Cardinals clock in 13th. This is a tough spot for the Cardinals, who looked beatable even in last week’s 17-10 win over the 49ers in which they were out-gained, 338-304.
I would bet the Browns to -3 (-125).
Raheem Palmer: The Browns are in the perfect position to knock off the league's last undefeated team.
The Cardinals have one of the league's worst run defenses, ranking 27th in Rushing Success Rate, 31st in yards per carry (5.4) and 28th in rushing yards per game (139). They allowed 154 yards on 5.4 yards per carry to the 49ers just last week, when the Cardinals were out-gained in yards per play (5.7-5.1) and were fortunate to win thanks to the Niners going 1-of-5 on fourth down.
The Cardinals might not be so lucky against a Browns offense that leads the NFL with 187.6 rushing yards per game.
The Browns are first in rushing expected points added (EPA) per play and fourth in rushing success rate, so I expect Cleveland to gash Arizona on the ground just as Minnesota did in Week 2, when the Vikings rushed for 177 yards on 6.6 yards per carry with a 48% rushing success rate on early downs. Given the Browns' use of play action with Baker Mayfield, that should also open up explosive plays through the air.
The Cardinals will also be missing star linebacker Chandler Jones, who tested positive for COVID-19. Jones has five sacks, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery, so this is a huge loss.
Finally, Kyler Murray is dealing with a right shoulder injury, and we saw how the second half of last season was derailed after he dealt with a similar injury. With there being a chance of 18 mph winds, we could see this explosive Cardinals offense suppressed by the weather.
Cowboys at Patriots
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Sean Koerner: Despite receiving 78% of the action as of writing (see more public betting data here), the Cowboys spread has dropped from -4 to -3.5, indicating that sharp action is coming in on New England — that makes me confident in my Cowboys -3 projection for this matchup.
The matchup itself is a fascinating one.
The Cowboys offense ranks fourth in Football Outsiders' DVOA and has looked as good as ever during their four-win streak. However, they face arguably the best defensive-minded coach of all time in Bill Belichick, who could create a game plan that slows them down.
After nearly taking down Tom Brady and the Bucs on Sunday Night Football in Week 4, the Patriots squeaked by the Texans with a 25-22 win last week. After that performance, the market has soured on the Patriots, but we need to remember that they were missing four out of their five offensive linemen then. Now Isaiah Wynn and Mike Onwenu return from the COVID list, which is huge.
The most likely outcome is that the Cowboys win by three points, which would still be a cover for the Patriots, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them keep this close and even pull off the upset.
There is no more valuable number in the NFL than +3.5, so make sure you lock it in there.
Cowboys at Patriots
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Billy Ward: The Cowboys have shown their desire to be a running team this season. Other than Week 1, Dak Prescott hasn't topped 32 pass attempts in a game, with fewer than 27 in three of the four since then. There's no reason to expect any different this week, with the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites in Foxborough.
I don't really understand how this total got so high to begin with — this game features two top-10 defenses (sixth and ninth in DVOA) and one rookie quarterback whose team is averaging fewer than 20 points per game. The Cowboys would need to be the driving force behind the over hitting here, but they seem comfortable grinding out the clock.
While Dallas does have two 40-point games already, both of those games featured defensive touchdowns by the Cowboys, so it wasn't just their offense scoring. Those games were also both against teams far more capable than this Patriots team of putting up points.
You can still find under 50.5 as low as -105 as of writing, but I'd continue to bet it down to 50 (-110), just make sure you use our NFL odds page to shop for the best line.
