NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: An Expert’s Guide To Betting Eagles-Broncos,Vikings-Chargers, Seahawks-Packers

DFS Plays

This is a smash spot for Dalvin Cook, who is cash-viable against a Chargers defense that's ranked dead last in DVOA against the run.

Chargers pass rusher Joey Bosa (questionable-ankle) is banged up, and they will be without cornerback Michael Davis (hamstring) and linebacker Drue Tranquill (COVID-19), so this should also be a good day for Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and the rest of the Vikings passing game.

The Chargers are second in DVOA versus non-No. 1 or 2 WRs but 31st against TEs, so I’m targeting Tyler Conklin over K.J. Osborn in this spot.

Justin Hebert and Co. should have success against a Vikings defense that played 98 snaps against the Ravens last week. Despite a questionable tag, Keenan Allen (knee) practiced Thursday and Friday and is cash-viable in a game with an over/under of 53, second-highest on the slate. Allen has at least eight targets, five catches and 50 yards in seven of eight games.

The Vikings are ranked 28th in DVOA to WR2s, so this could finally be a bounce-back spot for Mike Williams. I’m targeting Williams and fading Jared Cook, as the Vikings are sixth versus TEs.

The Vikings do a good job at taking away RBs in the passing game, ranking second in DVOA, but Austin Ekeler still has the requisite GPP upside due to Minnesota’s weakness in stopping the run as it ranks 26th in DVOA against opposing ground attacks.

• Cash Plays: RB Dalvin Cook, WR Keenan Allen
• GPP Plays: QB Justin Herbert, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Adam Thielen, WR Mike Williams, TE Tyler Conklin

DFS Plays

With P.J. Walker going against a Cardinals defense ranked second in pass defense DVOA and top-four against WR1s and WR2s, the Panthers' pass offense is unplayable.

It’s Christian McCaffrey or bust with Carolina in GPPs.

This is a prime spot to target the Cardinals DST stacked with James Conner, who should see the hulk of the rushing usage with Eno Benjamin mixed in. Carolina is allowing the second-fewest schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (24.5), so i’m not expecting a repeat of Conner’s 5/77/1 receiving line last week. However, I am expecting a repeat of him scoring on the ground, which he has done at least once in six of Arizona’s past seven games.

With uncertainty surrounding Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and the rest of the Cardinals' passing game, I’m fading them this week against a Panthers defense that ranks fourth in pass defense DVOA and boasts four above-average cornerbacks with the addition of former Patriot Stephon Gilmore.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: RB Christian McCaffrey, RB James Conner, DST Cardinals

DFS Plays

Russell Wilson returns to a dream matchup for his top targets D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, as the Packers are ranked 22nd in DVOA versus WR1s and 23rd vs WR2s. They're also missing shutdown corner Jaire Alexander, who remains sidelined with a shoulder injury.

With Aaron Rodgers slated to return from his COVID vaccine fiasco, you just know Pete Carroll will want to run the ball and play keepaway. This bodes well for Alex Collins as a contrarian GPP pivot off some of the more popular cheap options, as Green Bay ranks just 22nd in DVOA against the run.

With Rodgers having been immune from practice all week while on the COVID list, I’m fading him and the entire passing game except for Davante Adams; if you didn’t practice all week, who would you force the ball to over and over?

Aaron Jones is still a bit pricey and has been losing work to A.J. Dillon, so I’d rather target the cheaper Dillon here given how the slate stacks up with an array of other cheap RB options.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: QB Russell Wilson, RB Alex Collins, RB A.J. Dillon, WR Davante Adams, WR D.K. Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett

DFS Plays

The Eagles play zone at the fourth-highest rate, which should lead to a big game for Jerry Jeudy, who has been much better against zone than man in his career.

• Zone: 78/45/634/3; 57.7% catch rate, 14.1 YPR, 8.1 YPT
• Man: 45/20/252/0, 44.4% catch rate, 12.6 YPR, 5.6 YPT

This is also a good bounce-back spot for Noah Fant, who leads the Broncos in targets (34), catches (26) and yards (234) versus zone despite missing a game.

While the Eagles’ scheme should lead to PPR success for Jeudy and Fant, I’m still fading Teddy Bridgewater here, as he is dealing with a banged-up offensive line and is averaging more than three yards per attempt less versus zone coverage.

Against an Eagles defense that is ranked 20th in run-defense DVOA, I would expect Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams to both see enough volume to pay off in GPPs, though they will each likely be TD-dependent due to the state of the O-line.

Jalen Hurts should have success on the ground versus the Broncos’ man-heavy scheme and is an every-week GPP play at QB. With all the hype on Devonta Smith coming off a big game, I’d pivot to Quez Watkins here. Vic Fangio dials up man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and Watkins — not Smith — leads the Eagles in receiving yards (202) versus man coverage.

Dallas Goedert could also struggle here, as he has seen only 25.7% of his targets come against man this season.

The Eagles continue to operate a three-headed backfield with Jordan Howard, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. Scott was the flavor of the week last Sunday and predictably busted. Now it’s Howard, who spent the first two months of the season on the practice squad. Fade.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: QB Jalen Hurts, RB Melvin Gordon, RB Javonte Williams, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Quez Watkins, TE Noah Fant

DFS Plays

It will be interesting to see how Jacksonville plays it on defense this week.

After being a primarily man coverage team for much of the year, the Jaguars stymied the Bills with mostly zone looks last week. The Colts, however, are averaging 2.7 yards per target fewer against man coverage this season. The Jags have been a run funnel defense, ranking eighth in DVOA on the ground but 32nd through the air.

Carson Wetnz, Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor are each high-risk, high-reward GPP plays. The Jags DST is worth a contrarian flier based on their dominance last week in a 9-6 win over Buffalo.

For the Jags, this is a spot to target Laviska Shenault Jr., Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold while fading Marvin Jones, who has seen fewer than half of his targets come against zone coverage this season, which the Colts play at the seventh-highest rate in the league. (Note that Trevor Lawrence’s yards per attempt is 2.0 yards higher versus zone than man.)

Even if he returns, James Robinson won’t be a viable option against a Colts defense that is ranked first in run defense DVOA.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: QB Trevor Lawrence, QB Carson Wentz, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman Jr., WR Laviska Shenault Jr., WR Jamal Agnew, TE Dan Arnold, DST Jaguars

DFS Plays

D’Ernest Johnson may see every backfield snap with Nick Chubb, Demetric Felton and John Kelly on the COVID list and Kareem Hunt still not back from IR. That's why Johnson has to be locked into cash game lineups against a run-funnel Patriots defense that ranks sixth in passing DVOA and 17th against the run, as well as 29th in DVOA on passes to RBs.

The Browns' passing game is too unpredictable and low-volume to target in this spot. Bill Belichuck will likely limit Jarvis Landry with a defense that ranks top-three in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers. Austin Hooper, David Njoku and Co. will also have their work cut out for them as the Patriots rank first in DVOA against TEs.

In GPPs, Johnson can be stacked with the Browns DST against Mac Jones, as Cleveland is second in pressure rate (28.4%) while Jones’ turnover-worthy plays go from 1.2% to 5.7% under duress.

The Browns are allowing the second-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to WR1s, so this is a good spot to target Jakobi Meyers. The Browns are 12th in DVOA versus TEs, but Jonnu Smith is also worth a dart throw, as reports say that he could see work in the backfield with Damien Harris (concussion) out and Rhamondre Stevenson (concussion) likely to miss.

Brandon Bolden will fill in as the lead back with J.J Taylor backing him up. As the Browns are top-five in rushing DVOA, I would only target Bolden, who has run 74 more routes than Taylor this season.

• Cash Plays: RB D’Ernest Johnson
• GPP Plays: RB Brandon Bolden, WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Jonnu Smith (Editor's Note: Smith is INACTIVE), DST Browns

DFS Plays

Dak Prescott is cash-viable in a prime bounce-back spot against a Falcons defense that's ranked bottom-five in pass defense DVOA. The Falcons struggle to get pressure off the edge, ranking 31st in both pressure rate (18.6%) and sack rate (3.8%), which should soften the blow of the Cowboys being without left tackle Tyron Smith (ankle).

Atlanta is below-average in DVOA versus every position, so Ceedee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz and Ezekiel Elliott are all in play in tournaments. Schultz ran 91% of the routes last week and is cash-viable on FanDuel with Blake Jarwin (hip) on IR.

Cordarelle Patterson is averaging 92.1 yards from scrimmage this season and continues to be a must-play in cash games.

Kyle Pitts leads the Falcons in targets (18), catches (12) and yards (216) versus man coverage and is a high-upside GPP option against a Cowboys defense that plays man at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. Hayden Hurst is also worth a dart throw, as Dallas is ranked 32nd in DVOA versus TEs.

Matt Ryan has played himself into the QB discussion in GPPs, tossing multiple scores in six of his last seven games and throwing for 336 or more yards in three of his last four.

Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheus have combined for 5/50/1 on 11 targets versus man coverage this season and aren’t realistic options. Neither is Mike Davis, who is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry and 4.8 yards per reception.

• Cash Plays: QB Dak Prescott, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, TE Dalton Schultz
• GPP Plays: QB Matt Ryan, RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Ceedee Lamb, WR Aamari Cooper, WR Michael Gallup, TE Kyle Pitts, TE Hayden Hurst

DFS Plays

This is a get-right game for the entire Bills offense against a Jets defense that is ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass and 31st against the run. This is also a spot to fade the entire Jets offense and play the Bills defense that ranks first in DVOA against the pass and third against the run.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singletary, RB Zach Moss, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Emmanuel Sanders, WR Cole Beasley, TE Dawson Knox, DST Bills

DFS Plays

Kamara’s absence makes Mark Ingram II a locked-in cash game play against a Titans defense that has been a run funnel, ranking eighth in pass-defense DVOA but 24th on the ground. Plus, Ingram was already averaging 11.0 touches per game with Kamara active the past two games.

Backup running back Dwayne Washington has been lightly used on offense, touching the ball only 19 times in 33 games since the start of 2019, so Ingram has a 25-30 touch ceiling here.

The only other Saints player worth a look with Trevor Siemian starting is Deonte Harris, who could be used on short passes as an extension of the run game. Harris has drawn at least seven targets in back-to-back weeks.

The Titans defense is the top cash game play on the board at only $2,600 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel. The Titans are 11th in pressure rate (26.2%) and 14th in takeaways per drive (12.1%).

After playing at a shutdown level to start the season, Marshon Lattimore has been scorched for 13 catches, 275 yards and four touchdowns on 20 targets over the past three games. This isn’t a spot to shy away from A.J. Brown in GPPs. With Julio Jones (hamstring) on IR, I would rather play Brown solo than stacked with Ryan Tannehill.

Brown could see a high-volume game because the Titans' three-way running back committee of Adrian Peterson, Jeremy McNichols and D’Onta Foreman isn’t likely to do much against a Saints run defense that's allowing just 2.92 yards per carry to RBs.

As the Saints tend to outperform expectations as underdogs, I would also look to target their defense, which ranks third overall in DVOA.

• Cash Plays: RB Mark Ingram II, DST Titans
• GPP Plays: WR A.J. Brown, WR Deonte Harris, DST Saints

DFS Plays

Even without Antonio Brown (ankle) and Rob Gronkowski (ribs), Tom Brady is cash-viable against a Washington defense that is ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA.

With Chris Godwin (questionable-foot) also banged up, Mike Evans should be locked into cash games at WR. Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard are GPP options, as Washington is allowing the third-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. Tyler Johnson becomes a GPP option at WR if Godwin sits.

Washington is better against the run than the pass, but Leonard Fournette is an option due to the success Tampa’s offense should have moving up and down the field. Tampa Bay’s defense is fourth in run defense but has also climbed up to 10th in pass defense. This is a spot to fade Antonio Gibson and target the passing game in what could be a trailing game script.

With Logan Thomas not ready to come off IR, Ricky Seals-Jones is cash-viable. Bucs DST is also an option.

• Cash Plays: QB Tom Brady, WR Mike Evans, TE Ricky Seals-Jones
• GPP Plays: QB Taylor Heinicke, RB J.D. McKissic, WR Terry McLaurin, WR Chris Godwin, WR Tyler Johnson (if Godwin sits), TE O.J. Howard, TE Cameron Brate, DST Buccaneers

DFS Plays

Diontae Johnson has at least five catches and 56 yards in six of seven games and is cash viable with Chase Claypool (toe) out and the Lions ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA and 30th against WR1s.

The Steelers should be able to shred the Lions’ 25th-ranked run defense on the ground with Najee Harris, so I wouldn’t bother stacking Johnson with Ben Reothlisberger.

Pat Freiermuth is worth a dart throw, as he could retain his role even with Eric Ebron back.

This is a spot to stack Harris with the Steelers DST, as Pittsburgh is fourth in pressure rate (28.1%) while Jared Goff has a 51.6 passer rating under pressure with no TDs and four interceptions.

With Goff unlikely to have time to get the ball downfield to his WRs, the only Lions worth rostering are D'Andre Swift, who should see even higher usage with Jamaal Williams (thigh) out, and T.J. Hockenson.

• Cash Plays: WR Diontae Johnson
• GPP Plays: RB Najee Harris, RB D’Andre Swift, TE T.J. Hockenson, TE Pat Freiermuth, DST Steelers