NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Raiders at Giants
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Brandon Anderson: This line feels straight up disrespectful.
The Giants are 2-6. They've lost to Washington, Atlanta and Denver. Their wins came against P.J. Walker and then in overtime after trailing the Saints by 11 halfway through the fourth quarter. New York is not good. The offense is a mess and isn't really doing anything right.
The Raiders, meanwhile, are 5-2 and a half-game out of the AFC 1-seed.
Las Vegas started 3-0, lost two games that make a lot more sense now that we know they came during the Jon Gruden mess, then the Raiders won their two most recent matchups with their best games of the season. They ranked top seven in overall and passing EPA defensively over the last four games, and their outstanding pass rush is going to give this awful Giants O-line nightmares.
Plus, the Raiders are coming off a bye while the Giants have a short week after playing at Arrowhead and prepping for that Chiefs attack.
I love the Raiders at better than -3. Short favorites coming out of the bye week are 51-32-5 ATS, and road favorites out of the bye are 71-50-2. The Raiders are both, and I'm grabbing this one before it hits the key number.
Texans at Dolphins
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Sean Koerner: Tyrod Taylor is set to return from a hamstring injury that has kept him out the past seven games. And while he might not profile as a top-25 quarterback, he is significantly better than rookie Davis Mills, who is not NFL ready and went 0-7 with Taylor out of the lineup.
As a result of Taylor's return, I'm boosting the Texans' power rating by 3.5 points.
The 1-7 Dolphins shouldn't be more than three-point favorites against any opponent right now, even the Texans — especially considering Tua Tagovailoa is now questionable with finger/rib injuries. To make matters worse, he'll now be without wide receiver DeVante Parker, who was just placed on IR. (Will Fuller also remains on the IR.)
With Tagovailoa injured and without his top two receivers, the Dolphins could lean on their run game more this week, which ranks 30th in Football Outsiders' DVOA.
I'm projecting this spread closer to Miami -4. The most likely outcome is the Dolphins win by three points, so getting the Texans at +6 seems like a gift. I would bet them down to +4.5 (find the best real-time line here).
Vikings at Ravens
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Raheem Palmer: With their Sunday night loss to the Dallas Cowboys without Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins now moves to 8-17 in primetime games for his career, good for a winning percentage of just 0.32. Fortunately for the Vikings, they won't be playing in primetime this week as they're back to a standard 1 p.m. Sunday afternoon start time.
The Vikings could find some success in this matchup as they'll be facing a Ravens defense that is giving up 296.1 passing yards a game, dead-last among NFL teams. This Ravens defense is just 21st in EPA/play and 24th in Defensive DVOA, ranking 23rd against the pass and 15th against the run, so I'm expecting big games from Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. While they may not replicate the eight catch, 201 yard performance Ja'Marr Chase had against the Ravens in Week 7, this Vikings offense will score in this matchup.
Of course, slowing down Lamar Jackson won't be easy without defensive end Danielle Hunter. But I like the Vikings offense to do enough to keep this game close. I bet this at +7 and would bet it down to +6.
Vikings at Ravens
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Stuckey: This game has shootout potential.
I believe the Ravens offense is poised to have a monster second half of the season. They are not only getting healthier with the likely return of Sammy Watkins and the extremely underrated Nick Boyle, but they also recently saw the debut of first-round draft pick Rashod Bateman. His addition gives Baltimore a much more formidable group of wide receivers, especially considering Marquise Brown's breakout season.
Also, the Ravens' rushing attack should continue to improve on a weekly basis. Remember, Baltimore dealt with an inordinate amount of injuries at running back and along the offensive line to start the year. It has now had seven games to build continuity and an invaluable bye week to work out some of the kinks. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a few new wrinkles from offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
For what it's worth, the Ravens usually comes out firing on all cylinders after the bye week. Head coach John Harbaugh is an impressive 9-4 (69.2%) against the spread after the bye, covering by more than a touchdown per game.
This is also a very good matchup for Baltimore. The Ravens have the speed on the outside to exploit a beat-up Minnesota secondary that is lacking in that department.
Plus, the Vikings no longer have the services of their best pass-rusher, Danielle Hunter, who is out for the year with a pectoral injury. That really hurts one of the strongest aspects of this defense, which ranks second in Adjusted Sack Rate. Defensive tackle Michael Pierce will also miss this one with an injury.
The Ravens run game also should thrive against a struggling Vikings run defense that ranks 27th in EPA per rush. There are plenty of advantages across the board for Baltimore's offense.
Meanwhile, the Vikings offense will also enjoy quite a few edges on paper. Yes, I know they looked awful last week. However, I just think that was one of those stinkers every offense has one or two times per year. Just last year, we saw Minnesota amass a mere 175 total yards in a 28-11 loss against the Colts.
This is still a very dangerous offense that matches up well with the Ravens. Baltimore's defense can be vulnerable against zone-running schemes, while Kirk Cousins has proven more than capable against the blitz, which Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale loves to utilize.
Cousins and one of the best wide receiver duos in the league can have a big bounce-back day here against a Ravens secondary that still has some attackable areas.
For what it's worth, I would bet this over up to 50.5 points.
Patriots at Panthers
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Chris Raybon: Ugly under of the week alert.
The Panthers are averaging just 269.5 total yards and 148.4 net passing yards over their last few games. Even with Christian McCaffrey making his return, this will still be an under type of game, as the Panthers are now committed to hiding Sam Darnold at all costs, dialing up 47 runs in last week’s win over the Falcons. Carolina’s best pass catcher, D.J. Moore, will struggle for production against a Bill Belichick scheme that looks to take away the opponent’s No. 1 option and has been successful at doing so, ranking fourth in DVOA against opposing No. 1 wide receivers.
On the other side of the ball, this is a scary road spot for Mac Jones. The Panthers are ranked sixth in pass defense DVOA and boast three cornerbacks in the top 50 (A.J. Bouye, 33rd; Keith Taylor, 37th; Donte Jackson, 48th) — not to mention former Patriot Stephon Gilmore, who notched the game-sealing interception for the Panthers last week and would rank first among all corners if he had enough snaps to qualify. The Panthers also have linebacker Shaq Thompson — who is ranked second among all linebackers in PFF grade — back in the fold after he missed Weeks 5-7. Overall, Carolina’s defense ranks second in yards per play (5.0) and yards per game (295.6) allowed.
Given the tough matchup and rookie QB, Belichick will likely play conservatively and rely on his defense here. That's what he’s been doing on the road for years now, resulting in Patriots unders hitting at a 65% clip over the past five-plus seasons, per our Action Labs data.
I would bet this under down to 41.
Patriots at Panthers
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Mike Randle: Brandon Bolden has become the top receiving back in the Patriots offense after the season-ending injury to James White. From Weeks 4 to 7, Bolden totaled 18 targets, which he converted into 17 receptions.
The Panthers rank among the best in the league at defending the pass, ranking sixth in pass defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The Panthers also specifically limit opposing wide receivers, allowing the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wideouts. Look for rookie Mac Jones to attack Carolina in the short to intermediate area of the field, where Bolden can excel.
This game has a 41-point over/under, dropping from the opening line of 46.5. I expect Bolden to easily beat this low prop total, with our FantasyLabs projections at 19.7 yards for the veteran back.
I would bet this prop up to 9.5 receiving yards. This is a 10-rated prop on Sean Koerner's PlayerProps tool.
