NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
| Pick |
|---|
| Bears +7 vs. Vikings |
| Over 46 |
Bears +7
Brandon Anderson: The Vikings are clearly a much better team than the Bears.
Minnesota's passing attack has been really good all season and the offense ranks second in Expected Points Added (EPA) over the past six weeks. Kirk Cousins has had terrific metrics while Justin Jefferson is terrorizing defenses. The two should be able to shred Chicago's defense, much like Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams did last Sunday night.
And yet … "should" never seems to matter with the 2021 Vikings. They somehow always find a way to make things close, no matter who they're playing. Twelve of their 13 games were one-score affairs, and despite leading by at least six points in every game, they're somehow just 6-7.
Besides, this game is in Chicago, and Minnesota fans know to expect the worst in the Windy City. Don't believe me? The Vikings have visited Chicago 20 times this century — and the Bears are 16-4 straight up in those contests, including 15-5 against the spread (ATS).
You know how Rodgers owns Chicago? The Vikings don't even rent in Chicago. They can't even afford an Airbnb.
These games are almost always close — 12 of the 20 in Chicago this century finished within one score — and virtually every Minnesota game is close, so you can count on drama this Monday night. And as for this line? Minnesota has won in Chicago by more than a field goal exactly once this entire century.
Look, I'm a diehard Vikings fan, which also makes me a sports nihilist by nature. My read on this team has been off all year. I'm 4-9 picking Vikings games, the worst of any team. I can't in good conscience ask you to trust my read on the Vikes. Just know that asking them to cover this line is asking them to do something they basically haven't done the entire century.
I know which side my money will be on.
I like the Bears down to +6.
Over 46
Michael Arinze: At 6-7, the Vikings are still in the playoff hunt as FiveThirtyEight estimates their chances at 21%.
As for the 4-9 Bears, it's only a matter of time before they're mathematically eliminated, considering they have less than a 1% chance at FiveThirtyEight. But that doesn't mean they have little to play for, especially with rookie quarterback Justin Fields starting.
Their offense looked much better in the past two weeks, as it averaged 26 points per game over that span. And although Fields threw two interceptions against the Packers in their previous game, the Bears took a 27-21 lead into the locker room at halftime.
Monday's matchup should provide plenty of opportunities for both teams to put points on the board. Minnesota ranks ninth in points per game (26.5). Furthermore, the total is on a 4-0 run to the over in Minnesota's last four games.
If we look at the red zone stats, we'll find that the Vikings rank fourth offensively (65.12%) in touchdown conversions. However, their defense ranks 25th in allowing opponents to convert 67.50% of red zone opportunities into touchdowns.
One major area of weakness for the Vikings is defending against the run. They're 27th in allowing 129.5 rushing yards per game and tied for 29th in allowing opponents to rush for 4.7 yards per carry. I suspect that the Bears will be able to take advantage of Fields' dual-threat ability, particularly in the red zone. The Bears rank eighth with 126 rushing yards per game, and Fields averages 5.9 yards per carry.
When you put it all together, this total seems short. I liked it most at 45 but would play it up to 46.
