NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Seahawks, Jets, 49ers & Pats To Cover, Plus Saints-Falcons Over/Under In Week 18

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

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Seahawks at Cardinals Odds

Phillip Kall: While the Arizona defense has found its rhythm, it is hard to trust the offense. The combination of being able to move the ball, but not create touchdowns is worrisome. When DeAndre Hopkins was healthy he could demand a defense’s attention, create rushing lanes or simply beat anyone one on one. The Cardinals will need Kliff Kingsbury to get more creative in those tight situations to have success.

As for the Seahawks offense, it's also untrustworthy. Yes, Seattle is coming off a red-hot game, but its two recent impressive games have come against Houston and Detroit. Those are franchises they simply beat due to having more talent. Needless to say, that won't be the case against Arizona.

The obvious angle with untrusted offenses is the under on the total. However, even that seems risky given these teams' athletes and big-play ability.

Fortunately, we have a large spread to turn to instead. As long as the Cardinals continue to play the way they have been, it's hard to imagine them beating anyone with ease.

That said, take Seattle and the points to keep things close in this showdown.

Pick: Seahawks +6.5  | Bet to: +6

Saints at Falcons Odds

Michael Arinze: Even with this being a must-win game for the Saints, there is some trepidation with laying 3.5 points with Taysom Hill at quarterback. New Orleans' game plan will likely utilize Hill's strengths in some of their run-pass-option packages to control the game's pace.

I also feel you can't underestimate the role of the Saints defense in this spot. I'd expect them to carry on with how they've played in recent weeks against a Falcons team that could be struggling to find much motivation heading into this game. Combining the two scenarios does lend credence to the assertion that points could be at a premium in this contest.

Since Sean Payton became the Saints head coach in 2006, the total is 17-11-1 to the under in this meeting and 5-1 to the under in the past six meetings. You can grab the under at 40 as it's still available at multiple sportsbooks.

Check out where the latest odds are here to make sure you're getting the highest number possible

The final day of the regular season in the NFL can often be tricky and as a result, I won't be risking any more than one-half unit on any of my wagers.

Pick: Under 40 (0.5 unit) | Bet to: 40

Jets at Bills Odds

Mike Randle: I'm backing the Jets with this big number against the Bills. I understand Buffalo has everything to play for, but will it keep pushing the score and risking injury after the result is no longer in doubt?

Buffalo is just 1-2-2 ATS at home in their last five games as a favorite. That includes failing to cover big spreads against Atlanta, Miami and Indianapolis.

It will be a division-clinching day in Buffalo on Sunday, but not by 17 or more points.

Pick: Jets +16.5 | Bet to: +15.5

49ers at Rams Odds

Michael Arinze: It took a few weeks, but I finally got to the bottom of what's been troubling me about the Rams. They're often burdened by slow starts, making it difficult for them to cover the point spread consistently. While I haven't been able to nail down the teams they generally have success against, I know enough to say that they struggle against Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers' offensive scheme.

Rams head coach Sean McVay worked under Shanahan in Washington for almost seven years. While McVay might have intimate knowledge of how Shanahan thinks and operates, it hasn't benefited him in the past five meetings. San Francisco is a perfect 5-0 in those meetings and 4-1 ATS. Moreover, San Francisco is 4-0 ATS in those meetings as an underdog.

Lastly, since 2003, the 49ers are 15-6-1 (+8.45 units) as an underdog in this matchup.

The Rams already have enough trouble on their hands trying to halt this five-game losing streak against the 49ers. I feel Shanahan's decision not to announce his starter ahead of the game is another mind game he's playing on McVay to keep him guessing. While it might seem subtle, it could create just enough distraction to give the 49ers an edge.

A week ago, the 49ers were catching as many as six points for this contest. Now, that number has careened down to +3.5. There's still value at the current number, but I wouldn't play it any lower than +3. As a result, I'll only risk a half-unit on this play, given the line movement.

Pick: 49ers +3.5 (0.5 unit) | Bet to: +3

Patriots at Dolphins Odds

Phillip Kall: This year officially comes full circle as the season started with these teams facing off at 4:25 p.m. ET, and now it ends with the same matchup at the same time. Round one was a very different game though. It was the first NFL action that several key Patriots had in over a year after electing to sit out due to COVID in 2020. Also, and more importantly, it was Mac Jones' first-ever NFL start. Now, New England’s defense is better constructed and planned, and Jones has 16 starts under his belt.

While things have changed for the Patriots to exceed our expectations, Miami has mostly stayed the same. In the preseason, the Dolphins were expected to be around a .500 team that could sneak into the playoffs. They may have taken an unanticipated streaky route to this point but have nonetheless ended where we expected.

Even with the additional questions for New England in Week 1, the matchup ended as a one-point game. The Patriots even had a chance to win if not for a late fumble in field-goal range.

For this game, I am expecting New England to take care of business handily. We have seen the Patriots show no remorse as they beat down on teams like the Jaguars and Jets, and that should continue.

The Dolphins' struggles to block just scream trouble given the Patriots' talent and creativity on defense. Miami’s defense is also weakest against the run as it ranks 19th in yards allowed per carry. Facing a run-first, physical team like New England is the opposite of who Miami is.

This has another Dolphins offensive struggle written all over it as the Patriots run the ball to a comfortable victory.

Pick: Patriots -6 | Bet to: -6.5

Panthers at Bucs Odds

Michael Arinze: I suspect that Tampa Bay will want to put the Antonio Brown saga behind it as quickly as possible. That will likely have been part of Bruce Arians' message to the team leading up to this game. The Bucs will need to look at Brown's departure as more of an opportunity for their less-experienced players to step up. Arians might even frame it all as addition by subtraction.

After a week of answering questions about a player who's no longer on the team, the Buccaneers need to regain control of the narrative entering the playoffs. Regardless of what happens on Sunday, the Buccaneers will be playing on Wild Card Weekend since only the Packers will receive a bye. Thus, I believe it would behoove them to approach this matchup as a possible postseason game.

If anything, the earlier Tampa Bay can switch on their playoff mode, the better things will be for them. A good performance against the Panthers will quiet much of the discussion surrounding Brown's departure.

That's why I feel the Buccaneers will come out with a point to prove, and there are plenty of trends that support the Buccaneers as a side.

• The favorite is on a 4-0 against the spread (ATS)  run in the past four meetings.
• Carolina is 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings.
• Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS at home this season.
• Carolina is 0-6 ATS in their past six games.

Lastly, since 2017, teams that failed to cover the spread in six straight games heading into the final week of the season are 0-3 ATS in this spot.

I believe it makes sense to lay the eight points with the home favorites based on my research. Some sportsbooks are still offering the Buccaneers at -8, so you shouldn't have much trouble finding them at that number. I'd also recommend playing the Buccaneers as part of a two-team six-point teaser if you're feeling frisky.

I plan to allocate a half-unit of my bankroll for each play.

Pick: Buccaneers -8 | Bet to: -8.5

Bonus Pick: Two-Team Six-Point Teaser (-110) — Buccaneers -2 & Patriots -1