NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: How To Bet Patriots-Chargers, Jaguars-Seahawks, Bucs-Saints and WFT-Broncos

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Patriots at Chargers Odds

Raheem Palmer: This feels like the perfect buy-low spot for the Chargers, who are coming off their bye week after a 34-6 loss to the Ravens. The Patriots' wins are unimpressive and while they've played the Cowboys and Buccaneers tough, they were fortunate in those games given how their opponents performed in the box score.

The steep total of 49 tells us we're going to get a high-scoring game and I'm not sure the Patriots can keep up with the Chargers offensively given their injuries in the secondary. Look for Herbert and the Chargers to avenge last season's 45-0 loss under this new coaching regime with Brandon Staley at the helm.

The 4.5 points feels like a bargain here. I'll lay the points with the Chargers

Pick: Chargers -4.5 | Bet to: -5.5

Jaguars at Seahawks Odds

Michael Arinze: There's always a chance that bookmakers neglect to adjust their props after a line move. In many ways, props can be thought of as derivatives for the more traditional betting options. At times it can be a fun exercise to think about how the line movement can affect other aspects of the game.

As far as the point spread is concerned, I agree with the move because I'm not sure I'm ready to lay four points with Smith as a favorite. In comparison, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has looked much better over his last three games, and he's thrown only one interception during that span compared to seven in his first three games. If Lawrence continues to progress, the Seahawks could be in for an even bigger fight than they might've expected initially.

Based on all the elements I've discussed, there's enough to suggest that Smith could have a decent passing game against the worst pass defense in the league. SugarHouse lists Smith's passing yards at 218.5, and I believe the over is worth taking in this spot.

Pick: Geno Smith Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-114) at SugarHouse | Bet to: 222.5

Bucs at Saints Odds

Joe Klein: Despite being considered the best of all time, markets have consistently underpriced Tom Brady, who has covered spreads at a 58% clip in his career.

Betting against Brady can be extremely painful when he marches down the field to rip your heart out at the gun. But the task at hand this week is a difficult one for the Buccaneers.

This is a legitimately elite defense in New Orleans that has skill at all three levels. The Saints have the best chance of any team so far at getting to Brady. Marshon Lattimore's presence in the secondary, coupled with Antonio Brown's absence, gives the Saints a chance to limit the Bucs' offensive output.

One other nugget: Sean Payton is 11-3 against the spread (ATS) and 9-5 outright as a home underdog. There's a reason New Orleans has been a home dog only 14 times. While home-field advantage has been down across the NFL this season, this New Orleans home crowd will be especially rowdy with three extra hours on Bourbon Street pre-game.

And, if I had to bet, I'd guess that Payton and the Saints didn't spend their bye week preparing for Geno Smith and the Seahawks — it was likely spent studying Brady and the Buccaneers.

I'll take a shot on the dog here.

Pick: Saints +4.5 | Bet to: +4

WFT at Broncos Odds

Phillip Kall: Both teams may be on losing streaks entering this week but they feel much different. Washington is coming off its loss to Green Bay where its offense played well enough to avoid punting all game. After watching the Packers defense hold the Cardinals in check for much of TNF, that Washington performance is even more impressive.

Washington gets a chance now to recreate that success against a defense that is hurt and trending in the wrong direction. We saw Cleveland beat Denver’s front with superior line play, and Washington has the talent to do the same. The key will be converting on the high-leverage plays it missed last week. I expect Washington to do so, as last week seems like an anomaly for how many times any team can come up short.

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Denver’s hope in this game will be to have its receivers consistently beat Washington on the outside. The problem with that plan is the Broncos' offensive line will have to hold up against Washington's second-best pass rush, per PFF. While Denver’s offensive line has not been bad so far, it can not keep up with a top defensive front.

Despite Denver’s success against struggling teams on the year, I am going to go against the Broncos in this one. They have not looked close to the same team we saw to start the year and they consistently start slow. Washington just played the leader in the NFC and looked respectable on both sides of the ball. If you are feeling frisky, you can take Washington on the moneyline, but I will play it safe and take the points.

Pick: WFT +3 | Bet to: +1.5

Editor's note: The following section features picks and previews for games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Bengals at Jets Odds

Billy Ward: Three of the Jets' five losses have came by double-digit points, and that was when they had their starting quarterback. Those losses were each to 3-4 teams, too: The Patriots (twice) and Broncos.

The Bengals, meanwhile, are quietly one of the best teams in the AFC, having beaten the Ravens by 24 points in Baltimore last week.

When you add to that the Jets' mile-long injury report, this one is easy. The Bengals are the pick.

Pick: Bengals -10.5 | Bet to: -12.5

Dolphins at Bills Odds

Michael Arinze: The Dolphins rank 26th in Football Outsiders' Total DVOA and 28th overall in yards per game (307.6), but they're in the league's top half in their last three games, with 381 total yards per game.

I still think this team can move the ball down the field, and despite their red-zone woes against the Bills in Week 2, the Dolphins are ranked 11th in converting 63.16% of those opportunities into touchdowns. That's even higher than the Bills, who are converting 55.17% of theirs.

Given this revenge spot, the Dolphins still has something to play for. Plus Tua Tagovailoa is desperate to prove that he's worthy of being a starter amid possible trade rumors.

And given how I project this game to play out, I wouldn't rule out a late Dolphins' score to get over their team total.

Pick: Dolphins Team Total Over 16.5 | Bet to: 17

Titans at Colts Odds

Joe Klein: When this game re-opened close to a PK, I agreed with the opening line. We've gotten enough signal from Indianapolis recently, even if against weak competition, that this team is closer to the preseason market expectation: very good rushing attack, solid in the front seven, but question marks on the backend and at QB.

I understand the move toward the Colts, but we're getting to the point where this adjustment is too large. Tennessee beat this team, albeit when banged up, by two scores as a 4.5-point favorite a few weeks ago. Since then, Tennessee has beaten Buffalo and Kansas City, neither of which was fluky.

Home-field advantage has been way down this year and has been declining year-over-year. There's something to the home crowds, but teams are getting smarter about traveling. And this is a divisional game — these Tennessee players are used to going on the road at Lucas Oil.

I would play Tennessee at a not-too-expensive +3. But for those who don’t have access to +3, Titans +2.5 is an excellent teaser option.

This is a team that if ahead, can pound the rock, shorten the game and finish a win. But if Indy is ahead, Tennessee has shown the ability to throw the ball and get itself back into it. A teaser leg from 2.5 up to 8.5 — or even 1.5 to 7.5, if the line moves — is a strong play if you don’t have access to betting the spread at +3 with -120 juice or better.

Pick: Titans +3 | Bet to: +3 (-120)

Rams at Texans Odds

Phillip Kall: The Texans have been double-digit underdogs in four games this season and are 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in them. The only one of those four contests they covered was against the Browns (+13.5) in Week 2. However, Tyrod Taylor played half of that game and Baker Mayfield suffered his shoulder injury in the second half.

This week, there will be no Taylor, and Mathtew Stafford at least enters the game fully healthy.

I expect the Rams to come more ready to play than they did last week against the Lions. Even though they were able to come back and win, I doubt the Rams want to test those waters again. Plus, with the Cardinals' loss Thursday night, the Rams control their destiny for the NFC's top seed.

This is a clear mismatch in talent as shown by the almost three-score spread.

Typically, with double-digit spreads, I fear a backdoor cover when the game is far out of reach. However, Houston has shown no sign of being able to do that in recent weeks. Add to the equation Los Angeles has the best defensive grade per PFF, and that backdoor might as well be locked.

The other fear with large spreads is the offense scoring enough. Fortunately for the Rams, they feature the best passing attack to run the lead up early. Then, late in the game, the Texans' inability to stop the run will help the Rams maintain and potentially even extend their lead.

Had Taylor returned this week with a two-touchdown spread, I likely would have leaned the other way. That's not the case, though, so back the Rams to take care of business and roll to an easy road win.

Pick: Rams -15.5 | Bet to: -16.5

Steelers at Browns Odds

Billy Ward: If the Browns were fully healthy this week, they'd be favored by at a least a touchdown for this game. It's in Cleveland, and the Browns' only losses on the year are to the Chargers, Cardinals and Chiefs. The Steelers' wins (since a Week 1 upset over the Bills) are against the Broncos and Russell Wilson-less Seahawks.

With that said, 3.5 points is a bit much to lay on a team with the Browns questions. This line has come down from 4.5 throughout the week, but it's still not enough value for me.

If we see it move on to 3, I'm all in. It's a pass until then.

Pick: Pass | Bet to: Browns (-3) if available

Eagles at Lions Odds

Mike Randle: I backed the Lions at home against Cincinnati two weeks ago and got burned. However, the Philadelphia offense cannot produced at the level of the Bengals, and have a much less efficient passing game.

The most likely path to an Eagles win centers around a big game from Jalen Hurts, and I'm fading that possibility. I love getting the hook on the 3.5-point spread, which is why I'm taking the Lions as the underdog.

It's a coin-flip game, so I'll take the more cohesive Lions team in a desperate spot to breakthrough for their first win.

I would really prefer to get this line at the 3.5, but would consider it at Detroit +3.

Pick: Lions +3.5 | Bet to: Lions +3

Panthers at Falcons Odds

Mike Vitanza: While the Panthers were something of an early-season revelation for many, the current version of this team is a far cry from what we saw in September.

Not only has Sam Darnold regressed to the level of play we saw while he was with the Jets, but the Panthers are also not the same team without Christian McCaffrey. The high level of turnovers over the past few weeks has only exacerbated the issue.

The Falcons defense, while not elite by any measure, is very capable of exploiting these weaknesses at home in a game that suddenly very much matters for the NFC playoff picture.

Offensively, Atlanta has also found its stride, averaging 29 points per game over its last three. And as highlighted in my full preview, this Carolina defense is also more vulnerable than the current rankings indicate, so I expect plenty of opportunities for Matt Ryan and Co. in this one.

At -3, the current line suggests that this would be a pick-em in a neutral field environment. That’s not the case — the Falcons are the better team at this moment in time.

Pick: Falcons -3 | Bet to: -3

49ers at Bears Odds

Mike Vitanza: When comparing these teams, the clear edge goes to the 49ers, even on the road. Not only are they the more capable team on both sides of the ball, but they’ve demonstrated they can control the clock and game flow on offense.

The main beneficiary of this strategy will be Mitchell and the running game. Even in a negative game script last week, he carried 18 times for 107 yards and a touchdown. Backup JaMychal Hasty only saw three attempts, leaving no question Mitchell is the top option at this point. The absence of linebacker Khalil Mack should also help to open things up for the rookie in this contest.

In a positive game script against this 17th-ranked Bears rush defense, Mitchell should surpass his touches from last week en route to another big day on the ground. The current prop of 71.5 rushing yards is too low given the expected game flow in this game.

Pick: Elijah Mitchell Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-113) at FanDuel | Bet to: Over 75.5