NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
| Pick |
|---|
| Lean Cowboys -8.5 |
| WFT-DAL Under 46.5 |
| Ezekiel Elliott Over 13.5 Rush Attempts |
Lean Cowboys -8.5
Brandon Anderson: The Washington Football Team won four straight games in November, but three of those wins were eked out over mediocre teams, and they never really impressed. It doesn't help that this has been one of the most injury- and COVID-stricken teams in the league. Now they'll play on four days rest, a big disadvantage against a rested Cowboys team that barely broke a sweat against the Giants last week.
This Dallas offense continues to struggle to find its way, but this is another potential get-right spot for Dak Prescott against a struggling Washington pass rush and porous secondary. The Cowboys led comfortably all the way against the WFT just two weeks ago until a late pick-six, and were up 24-0 at the half on the road.
While the Cowboys offense still isn't right, the defense is playing as well as any with that fearsome front four featuring Micah Parsons, Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence. That trio each had a sack when these teams met two weeks ago and dominated, so they should do so again Sunday.
Dallas has won eight of 11 in this rivalry, and seven of the last nine matchups were decided by at least an eight-point margin. These games aren't usually close. Prescott is also 21-8 (72%) against the spread (ATS) in the division, including 4-0 this season, per our Action Labs data.
This is only a lean for me at -8.5 or higher, but a full unit bet if the spread reaches -8 by kickoff (shop for the best real-time line here).
Under 46.5
Chris Raybon: Whether the Cowboys cover the big number will likely come down to how many turnovers they can force, which is unreliable, so I feel the under is the best bet as it could hit even in a relatively mistake-free game by both teams.
And if you think it's wild that LT Tyron Smith's absences over the years have resulted in nearly a four-point swing on the point spread, as I detail in my full betting preview here, wait until you see how he's affected Cowboys totals this season:
- With Smith: 6-4 over, +3.8 margin
- Without Smith: 0-4 over, -14.4 margin
The Cowboys offense is averaging 22.3 points per game in four games without Smith, topping 21 only once. Six of their last eight games have landed on 46 or below, while six of the Football Team's last nine landed on 44 or below.
There are also three strong trends supporting the under, per Action Labs:
- Unders in games refereed by Bill Vinovich are 71-48-1 (60%).
- Since 2017, unders for games in which the visiting team is on its second straight road game are 186-128-3 (59%).
- Since 2003, unders in divisional primetime games from Week 10-on with a total of 45 or more are 53-20-2 (73%).
I like this down to 46.
Ezekiel Elliott Over
13.5 Rush Attempts
Michael Arinze: Washington committed four turnovers en route to a 27-20 loss in the first meeting between these teams, when Dallas narrowly covered the point spread as a 6.5-point favorite. Now, the Cowboys are laying 9-9.5 points after being as high as 11-point favorites earlier in the week. Some of that line movement had to do with a lengthy COVID-19 list for Washington. However, a good portion of the Football Team's players cleared protocols.
Nonetheless, it's worth noting that two of their key players will miss Sunday's game due to injuries. Safety Landon Collins is out with a foot injury while cornerback William Jackson III is sidelined with a calf problem.
I suspect the Cowboys will have a game plan centered around attacking the Football Team's secondary with both starters out. As a result, the line is where it should be if you factor in the early-week spread while adjusting for Dallas' home-field addition in addition to Washington's injuries. Thus, it wouldn't surprise me if the Cowboys get out to an early lead and then try to kill the game in the second half by running the clock down.
That could mean plenty of carries later in the game for the Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott.
BetMGM lists Elliott's rushing attempts at 13.5, which is slightly below his average of 14.3 carries per game. However, if you expect the Cowboys to win the game handily, his rushing prop does offer some value. In the five games that they've won by at least double digits, Elliott logged a total of 81 carries. That's an average of 16.2 per game, including at least 14 in four of them.
Since we could see a similar scenario play out Sunday night, I'll be taking the over on Elliott's rushing attempts prop up to -135 odds.
