Jets vs. Raiders Odds
The New York Jets are 0-11 and very bad at football. They certainly seem to be trying to lose every game to tank, or at least aren't trying particularly hard to win.
Last week, the Las Vegas Raiders didn't look a whole lot better than the Jets. The Raiders got absolutely embarrassed by a mediocre Falcons team, losing 43-6 in their worst game of the season by a wide margin. Suddenly, the Raiders are a game out of the playoff hunt and everyone is panicking.
And that recency bias is exactly why the Raiders have big value on Sunday.
Las Vegas Raiders
A week ago, everyone was in love with the Raiders. They came one late two-minute drive by Patrick Mahomes away from sweeping the mighty Kansas City Chiefs, beating them earlier this season and nearly doing so again in front of a national TV audience.
But the wheels came off last week.
The Raiders fumbled five times, added 11 penalties for 141 yards, and converted only three of 12 third downs. This was just one of those games in which literally everything went wrong, and it's important not to take too much away from a game like that.
If this game against the Jets had come a week ago, the Raiders would've been double-digit favorites, easily. They have a good offense. And even after that disaster, they rank 14th in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA and are nearly top-10 in passing.
They will be missing running back Josh Jacobs on Sunday, but the defense has improved as the season has gone on and Derek Carr has had a terrific year outside of a couple duds.
The Raiders may be on a two-game losing streak, but they have four wins by at least eight points, three of them against teams with three of the best five records in the NFL right now (Chiefs, Saints and Browns).
The Raiders badly need a win to get their season back on track — and they're playing the Jets at the perfect time.
New York Jets
The Jets are bad. Really, really bad. Like … bad at everything.
The Jets have lost games this season by 17, 18, 20, 24, 26 and 29 points.
They did keep two back-to-back games close, nearly beating the Patriots in Week 9 then getting blown out by the Chargers in Week 11 but hitting the backdoor cover late. The Jets lost those games by three and six points, respectively, marking their only two losses this season by fewer than eight points.
Of course, Joe Flacco was the quarterback for those two games. Sam Darnold returned last week and led the offense to a whopping three points. The Jets scored 28 in one Darnold game this season, but averaged fewer than 10 points in his other six starts. Darnold has three touchdowns to seven picks in 2020.
The Jets rank in the bottom four in both passing and rushing offense, and they're dead last in defensive passing DVOA. Just about the only thing they're good at is stopping the run — of course, that's probably because teams can pass on them any time they want and then just run up the gut to run the clock out most of the time.
The question with the Jets at this point is not if they'll lose.
It's when, and by how much.
Raiders-Jets Pick
With a team like the Jets, you almost have to look for a reason to talk yourself into them. Maybe Jacobs is your reason. Jacobs was the 2019 Rookie of the Year, so perhaps you're worried that the Raiders won't be able to run the ball without him.
The reality is that the absence of Jacobs can only push the Raiders to pass more — and remember, passing is the best thing Vegas has done this season, and the Jets rank dead last in pass defense.
The Jets' corners are banged-up, too, so they might be worse than ever. There's simply no excuse for the Raiders not to score. They should be able to pick a number before kickoff and hit it, especially with the season on the line in a must-win game.
This game opened at 7.5 points and I recommended you bet it immediately on Monday, expecting the line to rise this week. The Raiders should be at least double-digit favorites.
The Jets have lost over half their games by double digits this fall — seven of their 11! — along with another loss by nine and another by eight. That means that the Jets have failed to cover this line eight times already this season, and a half-point away from nine.
Hurry and grab the Raiders at -8 and play up to -9.5 while it's there. This is also a perfect spot to tease since you can cross 7 and 3 right now, and you've got some strong teaser partner options this week.
The Raiders are better than the team we saw last week. Take advantage of the recency bias that's lowered this price and look for a big bounce back against the terrible Jets.
PICK: Raiders -8
