NFL Odds: Picks for All 13 Sunday Afternoon Games

NFL Odds, Picks for Week 18

Vikings vs.

Bears

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Phillip Kall: With the end of the year here, the biggest fear for bettors is if teams will be pulling their starters. The Vikings currently sit third in the NFC but they do have the chance to climb to the two seed. So, they do have motivation to play and win.

The Bears, on the other hand, are in line for the second pick in the draft and could potentially jump to No. 1. A loss would benefit them more than a win. Given their needs, holding a top-two pick could give them a trade piece to fix multiple holes on their roster.

Without Fields, the Bears are outmatched here. Add in the extra motivation the Vikings will have to win and the incentive for the Bears to lose and the edge in this one becomes more clear.

Minnesota’s offense may be overrated and defense one of the worst but they still have elite talent. Peterman is an immobile pocket quarterback who will be under duress from the Vikings' high-level edge rushers. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota’s offense has enough firepower that a lowly defense like the Bears should not stop them.

I’m taking the Vikings to win — and win big — to gain momentum heading into the playoffs.

Pick: Vikings -5.5 | Bet to -7.5

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Texans vs.

Colts

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Phillip Kall: This game feels like one that is going to simply come down to motivation. That's typically a view I wouldn't say I like to take, but this is an exception.

This mostly comes down to the fact that the Colts have felt like a revolving door of a blame game. Replacing their quarterback, their offensive coordinator, and their coach has left their offense in shambles.

Interim coach Jeff Saturday seems likely not to return, and who knows what changes will come in the front office? The lack of organizational structure will give players less incentive to play hard. Thinking even if they do play well they may not have a job next year anyway.

On the other hand, the Texans have looked like a team lacking talent but still doing everything they can. Their lack of talent has been much more evident, but they have still forced good teams to competitive games recently.

Lovie Smith may not be the coach to lead the Texans forward, but this does feel like a team that is moving up from the bottom. They have a long way to go but with a clear direction, the players will still come out strong with the knowledge that their performance could be the difference between having a job next year.

The Texans may have less talent, but they are facing a dysfunctional offense with a backup quarterback. With more stability in their organization, they will have extra incentive to show what they can do and that they belong in the NFL.

While the Colts, well, they look like they clocked out at halftime of the Vikings game.

Pick: Texans +2.5 | Bet to +1.5

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Jets vs.

Dolphins

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The Great Foosini: With Flacco and Thompson, both of whom have incredibly limited data this season, starting this game, I make the Dolphins a 2.5-point favorite.

Again, the best unit on the field in this game is the Jets defense. Given everything we've heard in the media this week, I expect an inspired performance from New York. Playing spoiler is a great feeling, and the draft implications are minimal, so there's no motivation concern at this point.

Let's take the Jets with the points here.

Pick: Jets +3.5

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Panthers vs.

Saints

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Sam Farley:The real breakout star for the Saints has been Olave — the former Ohio State man already looks like a stud. With neither team having much to play for, I'm expecting to see the Saints feed Olave, who is somehow a +3000 outsider to win Offensive Rookie of the Year despite an incredible year.

Olave leads rookies in yards per route run with 2.4, which places him fifth among rookies over the past decade. He is also second in the league among rookies in receiving yards, trailing Garrett Wilson by 32. He's also No. 1 across the entire league in terms of air yards per snap and second in aDOT.

Olave is a truly elite wide receiver with exceptional numbers in everything except touchdowns, something I can see the Saints trying to fix on Sunday in order to get their boy back into OROTY contention.

Pick: Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown (+185)

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Patriots vs.

Bills

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John LanFranca:The Patriots are 2-6 ATS as underdogs this season and will be entering an environment no team yearns to play in. Allen has covered 57% of his games at home since 2020 and this matchup is ripe for another dominant Bills performance.

Lay the points with the home team.

Pick: Bills -7 | Play to -8

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Buccaneers vs.

Falcons

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Cody Goggin:There’s a possibility this doesn’t work out, but if you have the chance to bet Brady as a four-point underdog against a non-playoff team, you gotta do it. We will know much more closer to game time, but the odds will react to that news, as well, so it’s best to grab this now. 

If Brady doesn’t play, there’s still a chance that whoever is under center for Tampa Bay can hang with Ridder. In that case, I would take Tampa Bay at anything under a touchdown.

Pick: Tampa Bay +4.5 | Bet to +3

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Browns vs.

Steelers

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Blake Krass: Neither of these offenses can be trusted. Both teams have starting QBs that have only played a handful of games this season and neither has been able to produce much of anything.

Both teams also run the ball a ton and possessions should be severely limited. The Steelers defense will want to dominate in their first of many matchups against Watson. The Browns defense will also be highly motivated to stop the Steelers from making the postseason.

At the end of the day, the under is the best path here. The Browns would also make a strong teaser leg going through every key number in a low-total game. I like the under a lot over the key number of 40, but would play it down to 39.5.

Pick: Under 40.5 | Bet to 39.5

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Ravens vs.

Bengals

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Ricky Henne: It’s easy to see why the sharps, public and big money are all siding with the Bengals to cover. I’m firmly in that camp as well. As outlined, there’s almost an overwhelming number of reasons to back them.

Most of all, I personally can’t get over them being the most profitable team ATS over the past two seasons, nor the fact that they’ve covered seven-straight games. I’ll nearly always ride a trend like that until it doesn’t hit, so I’m not about to stop now. We may end up looking silly, but I’m all about good process, and the trends here point toward the Bengals taking care of business.

If that wasn’t enough, while there’s no perfect solution after last week’s game was cancelled, Bengals players are not pleased that a loss on Sunday may force them to hit the road on Wild Card Weekend despite capturing the AFC North crown.  They made their feelings quite clear on social media. Not that they need it, but there’s certainly plenty of extra motivation to go out there, make a statement and ensure a berth to the Divisional Round goes through Cincinnati.

I’m backing the Bengals to win by double digits. However, depending on the sportsbook, you can get this as low as 7.5. Jump at that opportunity.

Pick: Bengals -7.5 | Bet to 9.5

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Rams vs.

Seahawks

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John LanFranca:Teams motivated to get in the playoffs, playing against a team eliminated from playoff contention, have not covered the spread at a high rate.

Of the previous 42 games in which we have seen this scenario play out, the team with "nothing to play for" has covered at a 61.9% rate — and when those teams are catching more than a field goal, they have covered the spread at a remarkable 68.7% rate. 

Furthermore, divisional road underdogs of six points or more are 12-3 (80%) against the spread this season. McVay's teams have only been a road underdog of three or more points eight times in his short coaching career, in which the Rams are 5-2-1 against the number. Meanwhile, Pete Carroll is 6-16-2 (27.3%) as a favorite of six or more points over the past six seasons. 

The Seahawks defense is simply not strong enough for this team to consistently win with margin. Similar to a must-win game they played versus the Panthers at home in Week 14, Seattle is bound to lose the time of possession and turnover battle if it can't limit the Rams' ground attack. The Panthers controlled the line of scrimmage in that game and ran for 223 yards.

I am expecting a similar gameplan from the Rams, which should keep things interesting to the very end.

Pick: Rams +6 | Bet to +4.5

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Chargers vs.

Broncos

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Landon Silinsky:This is a spot where you absolutely have to be monitoring what's going on in the 1 p.m. ET games because there are ways to capture expected value if the Ravens jump out to a lead on the Bengals.

That would be the only way I attack the spread in this game. Even if the Chargers sit their guys, I don't trust this dumpster fire of a Broncos team to cover as a favorite under any circumstance.

I'd target the total here. If Chase Daniel starts and is out there throwing passes to DeAndre Carter and Josh Palmer, it might get ugly against this elite Denver defense. I like the under here despite the low total, but only bet this once you know the Chargers have nothing to play for.

Pick: Under 39.5 | Bet to 39

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Giants vs.

Eagles

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Anthony Dabbundo: When a team is in a must-win situation, they often get inflated in the market. Even though it's not the classic "eliminated team vs. team fighting for their playoff life" spot, the principle remains true. Everyone wants to bet the Eagles with Hurts returning and the Giants seeming to not care about the game.

Even if the Giants rest Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, it's still a divisional game and the Eagles offense shouldn't be expected to snap back to its normal elite self in Hurts' first game back. The loss of Johnson — who grades out as one of the best linemen in football — is significant in Philadelphia's attempts to dominate the line of scrimmage.

This is also a prime second-half under spot if the Eagles are playing with the lead. The favorite has no desire to get margin and will want to protect its quarterback, while the underdog has no real incentive to speed up the pace of the game or throw downfield. Those are the perfect ingredients for a narrow, but never-in-doubt Eagles win and a low scoring second half.

I'd bet the Giants at +14 or better and look to play the second-half under if Philadelphia has any lead at half.

Pick: Giants +16.5 | Bet to 14 | 2H Under if Philly Leads

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Cardinals vs.

49ers

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Blake Krass: The Cardinals have been awful early in games. They are last in average points scored in the first quarter (2.2). Overall, the 49ers are eighth in first-half points scored per game at nearly two touchdowns per first half. The Cardinals are 22nd in 1H PPG, and that is including games with Kyler Murray, Hopkins and Conner.

There is no question the 49ers will be motivated early on. I think they should jump out to a comfortable early lead. Once the second half rolls around, I'm not sure if they will keep their foot on the gas, as that depends on the Eagles-Giants game.

I'd back the 49ers to be up two scores at halftime and then sit on their lead in the second half.

Pick: 49ers 1H -7.5 | Bet to 1H 9.5

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Cowboys vs.

Commanders

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Cody Goggin:With this mismatch in the trenches, Howell will be battling for his life all game. The pressure will flush him from the pocket a good amount and leave him with ample opportunities to make plays with his legs.

The market doesn’t seem to be expecting the amount of rushing volume that I expect Howell will get. I could see him approaching 10 carries as there may be some designed runs for him mixed in with those scrambles. Young quarterbacks typically have a propensity to bail from the pocket early, especially when under duress, which only helps this bet.

While I’m not confident about whether Howell will be a good NFL quarterback long term, I feel like we will see him show off his legs in his debut.

If his rushing yardage total is posted before the game, there may be a play there, but I also like the +750 that Caesars Sportsbook is offering on Howell to score a touchdown.

Pick: Sam Howell Anytime TD +750 | Bet to +500