Giants vs. Washington Odds
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The winless New York Giants will be taking on a Washington Football Team that is trying to find stability at the quarterback position and its first victory since Week 1.
This battle of NFC East foes features two of the lowest-scoring offenses in the NFL, but also two of the sturdier defensive units of 2020, which has many expecting a low-scoring affair at MetLife Stadium.
Will that hold true come Sunday? Let's look at how to bet this total.
Washington Football Team
Head coach Ron Rivera made the move to start Kyle Allen last week, but Allen was forced out of the game early with a concussion. He'll be back out there on Sunday, and he'll need to put on quite an effort to lift this struggling Washington offense.
Any way you slice it, this is one of the worst offenses in pro football.
Washington doesn't protect the quarterback well — the Football Team is last in adjusted sack rate according to Football Outsiders — and is bottom-two in explosive run and pass plays, per Sharp Football Stats. WFT is also barely averaging more than four yards per play which is, you guessed it, the least in the NFL.
To be fair, all of that includes four games of Dwayne Haskins starting and a partial game for the incredibly rusty Alex Smith — Allen was decent in his quarter-plus on the field, leading a touchdown drive before getting hurt against the Rams. However, we have a sample size from last season of Allen in Carolina, some of which was with Rivera as the head coach, and we know Allen is nothing to write home about as a signal-caller.
On the opposite side of the ball, Washington is ranked fourth in defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders, and it is carried by its defensive line. Anchored by No. 2 overall pick Chase Young, this Washington unit should have a field day against one of the worst offensive lines in football.
A subplot on Sunday will be Young lining up against No. 4 overall pick Andrew Thomas in what will likely be a matchup that will be talked about for years to come in the NFC East.
And Thomas and the Giants' O-line will have their work cut out for them, as Washington’s near 10% adjusted sack rate is second in the NFL behind only the Pittsburgh Steelers. Daniel Jones has been sacked 17 times already this season.
New York Giants
In the aforementioned categories in which the Football Team ranked last, the Giants are not far behind. Jones and this offense got a little boost by putting up some numbers against Dallas' shaky defense last week, but this is an elite Washington defense that will expose New York’s true colors.
With no Saquon Barkley, the Giants have been unable to give Jones time to operate in the pocket now that opponents are able to stack the box with regularity. The numbers don’t lie: Jones is toward the bottom of the league, averaging barely more than six yards per pass attempt with a completion percentage of 61%.
The running game has not helped him, either. Devonta Freeman was brought in to help the running back corps out, but he's averaging three yards a carry in his first three appearances for New York.
What the Giants can lean on is a sturdy defense, which has kept them in a handful of games so far. While they may not generate a ton of hits on the quarterback, the Giants secondary does a great job of limiting big plays, allowing an explosive pass rate of 7% that ranks seventh in the league. The Giants are also wise to the run, allowing a running back success rate of 44%.
Despite a bad offense, the Giants defense has showed up in most games and kept Big Blue in all but one this season. As an underdog in all five games, the Giants are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) with most credit due to the D.
Washington-Giants Pick
Sometimes you think, "Two bad offenses cancel each other out and there is more scoring." Well, this doesn’t appear to be one of those instances.
These are two sound defenses that keep the ball in front of them facing off against two offenses that simply can't move the ball. These are the two worst teams from a points per drive perspective, so both defenses are likely to rule this one.
I am going to stay away from betting a side, because while Allen is a nice morale boost to this Washington offense, the Giants are desperate for a first win for coach Joe Judge and are sure to have more of a sense of urgency from the jump.
This total has dropped 1.5 points since opening at 44.5 to now sit at 43. And while all trends aren’t created equal, division unders that have dropped at least one point from open are hitting at a 54.5% clip since the 2005 season, making a $100 bettor $3,448, according to our Bet Labs Database.
PICK: Under 43 (down to 41.5)
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