Another week in the NFL brings another slate of picks. Our team of betting analysts has you covered with five bets at 1 p.m. ET.
NFL Odds for Week 11
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Simon Hunter: Another home team this week that the public hates. This time, it’s with good reason. The Falcons started the season 6-0 against the spread but are 0-4 (1-3 straight-up) since then.
Lucky for Atlanta, this is the perfect matchup to get back on track.
The Bears have a bad defense, maybe the worst in the NFL. They rank dead last against the run, which is music to the Falcons’ ears. Chicago is last in rushing yards and red-zone touchdowns allowed. No team since Week 2 has allowed more rushing yards than the Bears.
The Justin Fields breakout is fun and cool, but is it worth anything against the spread? Hell no.
This number should be Falcons -4.5, but the public loves Fields right now, which is fair since he might be the most exciting player in the NFL. Even he admitted, though, that his body is starting to feel the effects of running for more than 100 yards in consecutive weeks.
Now, Fields faces a defense that can get stops against the run but struggles against the pass. Look for Atlanta to make Fields win this game with his arm while running the ball down Chicago’s throats on offense.
I’d bet this to Falcons -4.
Pick: Falcons -3 |
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Brandon Anderson: I've been riding with Atlanta for much of the season, but I think I'm ready to get off the wagon. The defense stinks, and I've seen more than enough of Marcus Mariota quarterbacking this extremely one-dimensional offense.
Are we sure the Bears shouldn't be favored? Chicago's offense is rolling, and Justin Fields could have another monster day. The Bears have scored at least 29 points in four straight games, ranking fifth in DVOA over that span. By comparison, Chicago ranked 30th in DVOA the first six games of the season.
Atlanta is still short in the secondary and has allowed 25.0 PPG, even against one of the 10 softest defensive schedules. The Bears should run on this defense, and Chicago's terrible pass protection gets a respite against the league's worst pass pressure rate.
The question is whether Chicago's defense is any better. The Bears are the first team in history to lose three straight games in which they scored 29 or more points, and while Atlanta's offense is not exciting, it has been efficient. The Falcons have been at 17 points or less in four of their last six, but Chicago's defense could be a get-right spot.
I like the Bears better and would bet them at +3.5 or longer, but my favorite play here is simply the Bears team total over 22.5. I don't know if Chicago can stop Atlanta, but there's little reason to think a team that's scored 29 in four straight won't get to at least 23 against the Falcons.
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John LanFranca: The Eagles continue to be overvalued in the betting markets. They have failed to cover in each of their last two road games, and in their last three home games, they were fortunate to face the likes of Cooper Rush, Kenny Pickett and Taylor Heinicke.
It is quite difficult to win games with any type of margin when you can’t stop the run. The Eagles are 28th in rush defense DVOA, allowing teams to convert on 86% of third- or fourth-down rushing plays when two or fewer yards are needed – worst in the NFL. They now have to defend against a heavy dose of a healthy Jonathan Taylor.
In contrast, the Colts defense is the fourth best rush defense at 3.8 yards per carry allowed. The Eagles may have to win this game through the air, but they'll have to do it without the second-highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) tight end (per Pro Football Focus): Dallas Goedert.
A.J. Brown was clearly limited on Monday Night Football, as well. While he will play in this game, it will only take a few forced incompletions from the Colts defense to get off the field on key third downs.
Expect the Colts to follow a similar formula of success the Commanders implemented last week. The Colts fit perfectly into a recent trend over the last three seasons: Home underdogs of seven points or greater are 43-27 (61.4%) against the spread.
I'd play this down to +6. Indianapolis is only +7 at FanDuel, as of Saturday at 6 p.m. ET, so be sure to get the best number at our live odds page.
Pick: Colts +7 |
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Simon Hunter: I know what you’re thinking. “Why is this bozo making me bet any NFC South team?”
It’s because everyone hates this division, so that means we love it. Here, we’re getting more value on a home favorite.
Great news: Andy Dalton is starting for the Saints. Better news: This game is at 1 p.m. ET. In primetime, Dalton is awful. When he can roll out of bed and head to the stadium, it’s a different story.
On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford is back to play behind that awful Rams offensive line. Not only is he among the league’s worst in terms of turnovers and getting sacked, but now he’s without Cooper Kupp.
The Rams are a train wreck, but the public thinks this is a bounce-back spot for them. I can’t, and don’t, see it.
I like this to be a boring, slow, low-scoring game. Under a field goal, you have to take the Saints. They’re terrible but are they worse than the beat-up Rams? No chance.
I would bet this to -3.
Pick: Saints -2.5 |
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John LanFranca: Anytime Jared Goff is playing outdoors on the road, fading him has to be in consideration. Goff led his team to a victory on the road for the first time in his last 12 tries.
As for head coach Dan Campbell, it was his first career win away from home. The Bears out-gained the Lions by 85 yards in the game and had a 95% win expectancy early in the fourth quarter. I am not expecting a repeat performance from this Lions squad.
Pick: Giants -3 |
The Lions defense is dead last in the NFL on defense in yards per play allowed (6.5) and 27th against opposing rushing attacks in success rate. The Lions cannot defend against mobile quarterbacks. Not only did Justin Fields rush for 147 yards a week ago, but Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith all set their season high mark in rushing yards against this defensive unit. Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley will move the chains easily in this contest.
Daniel Jones is 15-5 (75%) against the spread in his career versus teams with a losing record. Back the Giants to get the win and cover on Sunday.
Don't play this at anything lower than Giants -3.
