NFL Odds: Week 17 Picks for Sunday Afternoon Late Slate

NFL Week 17 Odds

Browns vs.

Commanders

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Sam Farley: One really bright spark for the Commanders, besides those incredible new uniforms, has been the performances of the rookie Dotson. The former Penn State WR, who was picked 16th overall, has spent some time on the injury table but in recent weeks he's been back to his best.

It's been six games since he returned from injury. In the first three he had just four targets for 27 yards and zero touchdowns. In the three since, he's had 24 targets, 235 yards and three touchdowns — one in each game.

Dotson is cooking right now and we saw earlier in the season that Wentz loves him and wasn't afraid to target him. He already has seven touchdowns in his rookie season, despite missing five games. He's a big talent and +290 to score this week at BetMGM is a must-bet.

Dolphins vs.

Patriots

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John LanFranca:Divisional unders are hitting at a 61.1% rate this season (44-28-1); that increases to 68.8% for games played outdoors. Over the past two seasons, the under is 87-49 (64%) in games played in winds above 10 mph.

I don’t like the matchup for either offense. Both teams need to lean on their running game to have success, but I have a hard time seeing them executing given the quality of the rush defenses. Miami and New England will be playing not to lose in this one, just waiting for the opportunity to pounce on a mistake. 

Play the under in this AFC East divisional fight.

Pick: Under 41.5 | Bet to 41

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Cardinals vs.

Falcons

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Cody Goggin:Tyler Allgeier should see a sizable workload in a likely positive game script. While I expect the Falcons to have a lot of success and lead for much of this game, Allgeier is the target for my best bet of this game. This line should be well over 75.5 yards as Atlanta may approach 40 totalrushing attempts for the game and Allgeier will have plenty of opportunities to break off a big one.

You can get the best number on Allgeier's rushing yards at BetMGM, as of 6 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Pick: Tyler Allgeier Over 75.5 Rushing Yards. | Bet to 79.5

Jaguars vs.

Texans

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Blake Krass: This seems like a pretty perfect spot for the Texans. I believe the public perception is that the Jaguars are the team to back here because they "need to win" and have been hot recently. However, the Texans have also been hot ATS and the Jaguars have little to no motivation to win.

Lawrence has really struggled against Smith's defensive system and I doubt the Jaguars will want to pull out too many tricks from the bag with such an important game looming. That sets up a scenario where the Jaguars could go super conservative and really struggle to score.

This number was great at +4 on Friday, but it moved down to +3 on Saturday and that's as far as I'd play it. I think the Texans manage to play this extremely tight, and I would not be surprised if they win outright.

Pick: Texans +3 (Play to +3)

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Colts vs.

Giants

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Dylan Wilkerson:The lack of explosive plays for both of these teams will create long, clock killing drives. The Colts' offensive inefficiencies are enough for me to bet on a low-scoring game.

The addition of the Giants' run-centric offense only makes me more confident about this pick.

Pick: Under 37.5 or Better

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Broncos vs.

Chiefs

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Anthony Dabbundo: Since the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, Mahomes and the Chiefs are just 5-10 against the spread in divisional games. One of the covers came in overtime. So even though you'll hear about how much Mahomes dominates the AFC West — 13-2 straight up since that Super Bowl win — the market has clearly inflated them.

The Broncos may have lost by 37 last week, but it was only the second time all season they were defeated by double digits. They've been really bad, but they've played a lot of close games and are 0-3 in overtime.

It's created a perception that they're worse than they actually are. Our Action Network Luck Rankings have the Broncos as the most unlucky team in the entire league, while Kansas City ranks third in good fortune this season.

Denver closed as an 8.5-point underdog in that first meeting. Not much has changed between these two teams since. Denver beat a shorthanded Arizona and then was embarrassed in Los Angeles. The Chiefs barely beat Houston and then handled Seattle.

If you apply home-field advantage, that would make Kansas City an 11.5-point favorite. I bet Denver in that game and would bet Denver in this game at +11 or better.

Pick: Broncos +12.5 | Bet to +11

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Panthers vs.

Buccaneers

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Phillip Kall:This game seems built for Tom Brady at home: a divisional matchup, division control on the line, and tons of pressure. We have seen time and time again, Brady not just keeps his cool but elevates his play in these situations. 

However, when you look at these teams and what makes them successful, the signs point to Carolina. The Panthers need to force their opponent to be one-dimensional. Tampa Bay naturally can’t run. The Panthers need to create offense on the ground since Tampa Bay’s run defense is its weakness. The way the Xs and Os shake out look to be in Carolina’s favor.

Since Tampa is the favorite, a good way to break the tie on who to pick is to check their scoring margins recently. In three of Tampa’s last four victories, the game has been decided by a field goal or less. With a spread of over a field goal in most books, it is pretty clear which side to turn to.

Pick: Panthers +3.5

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Bears vs.

Lions

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John LanFranca:Since 2019, road underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points facing a team .500 or worse are 59-31-1 (65.6%) against the spread. When those games are inside the division, underdogs in that same spot are 22-11-1 (66.6%).

Over the past three seasons, teams coming off a 20+ point loss that are underdogs in their next game are 58-32-1 (64.4%) against the spread.

Furthermore, road underdogs of exactly six points inside the division are 17-6 (73.9%) against the number over the past eight years.

Chicago was penalized nine times in its first meeting with the Lions, who were flagged only twice. The Bears dominated the Lions defense on the ground, even without Fields’ gaudy rushing total. David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert averaged more than five yards per carry combined.

Nothing in the lead-up to this game tells me the story will be any different this time around. The matchup for the Lions' front seven against this Bears rushing attack is extremely poor for the home team. Detroit is struggling badly in gap responsibility and lacks the physicality to withstand a push at the line of scrimmage.

Just on principle alone in the world of handicapping, when you can catch six points against possibly the worst defense in the NFL, it’s an auto-play. The Lions were lucky to win back in Week 10, and they’ll be lucky to still be in the playoff race after Sunday.

Pick: Bears +6 | Bet to +5

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Saints vs.

Eagles

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Ricky Henne: The total between the Saints and Eagles is simply way too low. In fact, our model projections love the over in this game, giving it a 4.8% edge over what sportsbooks are offering. That’s the biggest edge of any game this week as our NFL power ratings believe the line should be 44.5.

In addition, as Evan Abrams points out, the Eagles have the largest margin to the over with their games going over by 4.4 points per game. This line has dropped to 41.5, which would be the lowest mark heading into any Eagles game this season. In addition, at least 42 points have been scored in 12 of Philadelphia's 15 games this year, including in 11 of its past 12.

Sportsbooks have overreacted in a major way, and I’m taking advantage by putting multiple units on the over. I’d take it up to the 44.5 our model projects.

Pick: Over 41.5 | Bet to 44.5

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Rams vs.

Chargers

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Ricky Henne: The Chargers are the class of Los Angeles right now, and it’s not even close. There are plenty of reasons to believe they’ll have their way against an inferior opponent, yet the more I look at it, the more I like Sean McVay’s crew to score over 17.5 points.

A ton is being written about how inspired the Bolts are playing on defense, but once again, I simply can’t get over the quality of opponents.  Shutting down Ryan Tannehill, who suffered a season-ending injury early in the first quarter, and Nick Foles in back-to-back games doesn’t exactly make you the '86 Bears.

Meanwhile, I’m hardly the only one who believes in the Rams. An obscene amount of money is pouring in on them to cover. While 60% of bets against the spread are on the Chargers, a whopping 99% of the money backs the Rams.

I strongly lean that way as well since I’m clearly confident in the Rams' chances of putting up points. What I’m not so confident in, however, is their ability to prevent Justin Herbert and company from doing the same.

Pivoting to the Rams team total takes that out of the equation, and for me, feels a bit safer. It also allows us to avoid the juice and turn a higher profit as you can grab this as high as +105.

Pick: Rams Team Total Over 17.5

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49ers vs.

Raiders

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San Francisco’s offense runs at the slowest pace in the league, 31.0 seconds per play. This has increased to 32.3 seconds per play in Purdy’s three starts. Las Vegas ranks 24th in the league in pace, so this game will likely end up being a slow grind.

There are a lot of ways I'd like to play this game and all of them point toward San Francisco. While I think the Niners can get an easy win, the spread has already reacted to the Stidham news. Instead, I prefer to take the under at 42.5 points.

The pace of this game should be slow and the Raiders will have trouble doing anything against this stacked 49ers defense. I would expect Kyle Shanahan to come out with a more conservative game plan for a game in which he expects his team to be in a positive game script for most of the contest.

Pick: Under 42.5 | Play to Under 42

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Jets vs.

Seahawks

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As per usual, I like to make actual projections between the two teams. This week I have the Jets as a 1.6-point favorite over the Seahawks in Seattle, so nothing notable in terms of a difference.

This intuitively makes sense. As the season goes on, everyone has the same data besides injury concerns. Vegas and data-based handicappers like myself will align most of the time later in the season.

What I do like here is how Seattle performs at home against teams with an offensive pulse, i.e. not a bottom five offensive team like Denver or Arizona. The Seahawks allowed 30+ to Carolina and Las Vegas, and while the Jets are not Vegas, they are somewhere in between the two squads.

Furthermore, Seattle has not put up more than 20 points against good defenses recently (San Francisco, Tampa Bay), and most recently struggled against Kansas City. I do not see the offense suddenly turning things around again against one of the best defenses and cornerback duos in the league. Seattle excels in passing offense, so this will be tough, especially if Tyler Lockett isn't 100%.

Despite the Jets' recent struggles, they have a likely uptick in their performance this weekend. I'm expecting 24+ points from the Jets with a rejuvenated offense led by White again, and 17-20 from Seattle. Again, still an upper-echelon offensive squad, but they are facing a top three defense here.

Jets 27, Seattle 17. Give me New York along with a half-unit play on the over.

Pick: Jets -1.5 or Better (also half-unit on Over 42.5)

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Packers vs.

Vikings

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It should come as no surprise that Minnesota checks in at No. 1 in Action Network's Luck Rankings. No team has had better fortune in maybe the last decade of regular season football than the 2022 Vikings. The defense has major holes and on a play-to-play basis, Rodgers should have his way.

Green Bay ranks 25th in the Luck Rankings and its losses to Washington, New York and Detroit certainly stick out as unfortunate when you dive deeper into the box score and game flow of those games.

The Packers opened as a 2.5-point favorite on the lookahead line and quickly jumped to 3.5 after their upset win over Miami on Christmas. I wouldn't lay more than three points, but anything three or fewer is a bet on the desperate Packers at home.

They're the better team, regardless of what the records say.

Pick: Packers -3 | Bet to -3

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