NFL Week 9 Odds & Picks for Both Late-Slate Games

Week 9 NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Vikings vs.

Commanders

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Sam Farley: One of the most surprising trades at the deadline was the Vikings moving for TJ Hockenson who has spent the last three and a half seasons at the Lions since being drafted in 2019.

Hockenson is a really talented tight end but his receiving yards line for Sunday's game against the Commanders sits at 33.5 yards and we simply have to back the under.

For all the Commanders' defensive flaws, they have been very good against tight ends this season. Washington has allowed an average of 28.3 yards per game to the tight end position.

The Commanders now go up against a tight end who has only just arrived at his new team, which is known for having a complex playbook and already has more options in the wide receiver room than his former Lions team had.

I love Hockenson as a player but with his great blocking ability, I'd expect to see more of him helping protect Cousins or run blocking for Cook than I would him being a receiving threat in his first game with a new team.

Pick: TJ Hockenson Under 33.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to 31.5

Panthers vs.

Bengals

Phillip Kall:With all the questions Cincinnati has to answer, such a large spread seems unusual. The offense needs to show it can create offense without its top receiving threat, while the defense needs to show it can cover someone on the backend without their top corner. Last week. Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones combined for nine catches 212 yards and a touchdown. D.J. Moore has had a resurgence as of late thanks to P.J. Walker’s improved play, and I don’t expect that to stop.

The typical rule is to not overreact to one week. Given the injury situation surrounding Cincinnati, though, I think it's fair to question what to expect. I do believe the Bengals will win, but trusting them to win by more than a touchdown seems extreme.

Back Carolina to continue being a thorn in the side of opponents, even if it doesn’t result in a win. BetMGM is the only book at +7.5, as of Saturday afternoon, so be sure to use our NFL odds page to shop around.

Pick: Panthers +7.5 | Bet to +6.5

Bills vs.

Jets

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The Great Foosini: There are a ton of similar opponents here, and looking at the line tells an interesting story.

Let's look at the Packers to start. Green Bay was favored by 7 or 7.5 against the Jets at home, and while they have greatly disappointed and underachieved this year, they flipped to 10.5-point 'dogs in Buffalo last week.

So, we're making the Jets 7-point dogs to the Packers, the Packers 10.5-point dogs to the Bills, and then only make the Bills a 11.5-point favorite? This should be at least 14, and I'm actually surprised this has moved from 12.5 to 11.5.

I've written about the Jets a ton here, and I've been against them in particular situations. I took them against the Steelers and the Browns, but the one thing those teams have in common is that they are, well, not good. The situation for betting against them, however, is when they play a good team at home. Those teams were the Ravens and Bengals, and this squad is vastly better than both of them.

As I said above, this should be a 14-point game. There won't be much of a home-field advantage with Buffalo fans running rampant in New Jersey, and there won't be much scoring on the Jets side of the ball. While the Jets have a phenomenal defense, the Bills can torch anyone at any time.

Quickslip: Bills -10.5

Colts vs.

Patriots

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Ricky Henne: His coordinator canned.  A key cog in Hines dealt. Taylor declared out with an ankle injury.  Ehlinger must be wondering what he did wrong in a past life to deserve this turbulent week. It’d tough to overcome these obstacles against any opponent, but downright daunting against a Bill Belichick-led team.

With a mere 23 pro passes to his name, Ehlinger is for all intents and purposes a rookie. Belichick feasts on quarterbacks in similar situations, going 14-0 at home against rookie passers and 11-3 against the spread.

The game figures to be a low-scoring affair, which also plays into the Patriots’ hands. An over/under of 40.5 is the lowest of any Week 9 matchup, and New England is 21-10-1 over the last twenty years in games in which fewer than 40 points are scored.

The Colts have played only two games all year in which that total was eclipsed, and none of them came on the road.  Indianapolis is also 1-3 ATS away from home.

Making matters worse is that Gillette Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Colts, who’ve lost six straight in a Foxborough. Take the Patriots to win by at least two field goals as the signs point to them covering in a low-scoring game.

The Pick: Patriots -4.5

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Raiders vs.

Jaguars

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Dylan Wilkerson:I trust the Raiders offense to find its stride in this game. A shutout is an extreme outlier in the NFL, and you can expect teams to make up for it and progress back to the average. I like the Raiders to do that here, while also stalling out an anemic Jaguars offense.

Here's the betting evidence to back up a Las Vegas bounce back: Since 2015, teams that got shutout have gone 27-10 (73%) against the spread the following week.

Pick: Raiders -2.5

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Dolphins vs.

Bears

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Landon Silinsky: My initial lean is that this total is too high. Chicago's pass defense is not like Detroit's and the Dolphins will not be able to move the ball through the air with the ease they did last week. Miami head coach Mike McDaniel is sharp enough to know that the way to win against the Bears is to run on them, and I think the Dolphins' game plan will lean that way, ultimately leading to fewer plays and a running clock.

Also, despite the fact Fields has looked better as a passer in recent weeks, we know the Bears are a run-first football team. I believe this will be a slow pace game with both teams having some success on defense. Give me the under here.

Pick: Under 45.5 (Bet to 45)

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Packers vs.

Lions

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Blake Krass: The Packers and Lions could both get back arguably their biggest offensive weapons in Allen Lazard and Swift, which would heavily boost these offenses. Overall, both offenses should be able to exploit their opponent's defensive weakness.

The Lions offense has been very impressive at home this season. The total points scored in each Lions home game this year is ridiculous. Their home games are averaging an absurd 71.75 points per game, and each one has comfortably gone over this game's total of 49.5.

In a game where neither defense can be trusted, the over is the best path here. Both teams have shown they are liable to give up points late in games and blow leads. Points should be easy to come by in this game, and this total should cruise over.

Pick: Over 49.5

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Chargers vs.

Falcons

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John LanFranca:The Chargers' porous rush defense is the elephant in the room when it comes to handicapping this game. The public will love taking the points with the team that runs the ball at the second-highest rate against a defense that allows 6.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

However, Brandon Staley has had two full weeks to prepare for this rushing attack and the Chargers rush defense has shown signs of life. In Week 6, this defense limited Denver's running backs to 75 yards on 19 carries (3.9 YPC) and in Week 7, Kenneth Walker was held to 4.2 yards per carry before popping a 74-yard touchdown when the game was out of hand.

Staley will sell out to stop the run and look to pressure Marcus Mariota when the Falcons get to third down. The Falcons offensive line has the fourth-worst adjusted sack rate in football at 9.6%. The Chargers only need to get to Mariota a couple of times to end drives and give the ball back to an offense that should have its way.

I love this situational spot for the Chargers as teams with a winning record, coming off a bye and going on the road to face a team .500 or below are 27-15 (64.3%) against the number over the past 15 years.

Pick: Chargers -3

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Seahawks vs.

Cardinals

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Cody Goggin:I expect that Kliff Kingsbury will fail to adjust and this pattern will repeat itself again this weekend. With that being said, I like taking Kyler’s passing yards under this week. He will be put into some poor situations again if the Cardinals aren’t able to convert on their early down runs, leading to less success for this offense overall.

Prior to last week, Kyler had gone under each of the last four games. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins to this offense may be the X-factor that helps to convert on third and long, but I’m willing to take this chance. Seattle has also allowed less passing yards than this in five of their eight games this season, including in three of their last four.

Pick: Kyler Murray Under 265.5 Passing Yards

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Rams vs.

Buccaneers

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Anthony Dabbundo: It would be reasonable to expect both of these disappointing offenses to regress toward their preseason priors. But I don't think the market has fully caught up to just how bad the offensive lines are and how much both quarterbacks have declined.

Both offenses are averaging just 17 points per game and both offensive lines are dealing with injuries.

It doesn't hurt that both head coaches tend to be conservative and prioritize field goals and field positions over fourth-down conversions and touchdowns.

This total should be closer to 41 because of that, and I'd bet the under at 42.5 or better.

The Pick: Under 42.5 (play to 42)

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