Number in parentheses is confidence rating in pick from 1-10.
Tim Boyle (Lions) — Under 95.5 Passing Yards (8)
Jared Goff will start and potentially play the entire first quarter. We could then see Tim Boyle and David Blough split the remaining three quarters. Boyle is a terrible QB and this number is way too high considering he will likely play 1 1/2-2 quarters. I’m projecting him closer to 80.5 pass yards.
Josh Reynolds (Lions) — Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (9)
The Lions are expected to play their starters for about one quarter tonight. Reynolds is expected to be in that group, but he'll compete for targets against D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark and T.J. Hockenson. I’m projecting him closer to 16.5 receiving yards.
Damiere Byrd (Falcons) — Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (8)
The Falcons might be playing 10-11 WRs tonight, which means it’s going to be extremely difficult for Byrd to see enough playing time to haul in two or more receptions. I’m projecting him closer to 14.5.
Mike Harley (Browns) — Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (7)
It’s a bit of a mystery how the Browns will handle their WRs tonight, giving Harley a wide range of outcomes. Regarding Week 1 of the preseason, I would only feel comfortable taking the Over 20.5 receiving yards unless I was 100% sure that WR would see four or more targets. I can’t say that about Harley, which is why I’m on the under.
I like how this prop correlates with the Felton Under 21.5 rush yards prop (coming later) because if Felton ends up lining up tonight as a WR, it’ll increase the chances I end up hitting both props. I’m projecting him closer to 14.5 receiving yards.
Demetric Felton (Browns) — Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (8)
Felton has been lining up at WR in camp and is more of a pass-catching back. I could see the Browns wanting to give him carries to see how he does with direct carries. I think it’s more likely we see D’Ernest Johnson, John Kelly, and rookie Jerome Ford see most of the work out of the backfield.
I think Ford ends up seeing a pretty big workload here and consider Felton’s under prop to be an investment in Ford (who doesn’t have any props yet). I’m projecting Felton closer to 16.5 rush yards.
C.J. Beathard (Jaguars) — Under 79.5 Passing Yards (7)
Beathard will relieve Trevor Lawrence after he plays 2-4 series. That means Beathard will likely play the 2nd quarter and may even start the second half before giving way to Jake Luton. Jacksonville also recently signed EJ Perry. If the Jags plan on playing him at all, it’ll only decrease the number of snaps for Beathard, who I’m projecting closer to 65.5 pass yards.
Keaontay Ingram (Cardinals) — Over 24.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (6)
The Cardinals are resting James Conner tonight, meaning Eno Benjamin will get the start. Benjamin has already been with the Cardinals for a couple of seasons, so they know what they have in him. Darrel Williams is listed as questionable, so if he ends up being held out, the Cardinals will likely want to get a long look at Ingram.
Ingram was solid at USC, and he could be on the roster bubble. They'll likely opt to give him more chances than T.J. Pledger/Ronnie Rivers, who are long shots to make the team. I’m projecting him closer to 28.5 total yards and love his upside here.
Malik Taylor (Packers) — Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (8)
Taylor returned to practice last week. Even if he does suit up tonight, it probably won’t be for long. Just know that when you use this prop, there is a chance he ends up not playing, and the prop will be graded as DNP. I’m projecting him closer to 14.5 receiving yards.
