NFL Odds & Picks
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John LanFranca: Take your pick of any and all Mike Tomlin trends this week. I am buying in.
Blindly betting Tomlin at home over his entire career would have yielded a decent 4.6% return on investment. As an underdog, he's a remarkable 15-3-3 (83.3%) against the spread (ATS). More specifically, he has some history with Andy Dalton. Tomlin is 12-4 (80%) ATS versus Dalton.
The Steelers have played an incredibly difficult schedule in 2022. According to DVOA, not only has their offense played the hardest schedule of defenses collectively, their defense has also played the most daunting aggregate of offenses as well.
Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and getting back the most important piece of its defense – T.J. Watt. The energy will be high as Tomlin and his team have their backs against the wall.
I will happily fade a deflated Saints offense with Dalton (somehow) still under center. Their 30th ranked defense in pressure rate won't help matters either. The Saints haven't won a true road game since Week 1, and they won't win Sunday in Pittsburgh.
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Brandon Anderson: The Steelers got the week off, and boy did they need it.
Finally, this offense got a chance to give rookie QB Kenny Pickett a full week to practice after pivoting to him mid-game on the fly. Even more importantly, Pittsburgh’s defense got a lot healthier. Defending DPOY T.J. Watt is back, and he changes everything. Pittsburgh’s secondary also gets far healthier after missing one-to-three starters in every Pickett start.
Pittsburgh’s results with Pickett haven’t been great, but three of his four starts have come on the road against the Bills, Eagles and Dolphins. The banged-up defense got lit up in all three, but that defense is healthy now and grades out top-five in my position rankings matrix. The Steelers won Pickett’s one home start against the Bucs, and he also nearly beat the Jets at home after debuting in the second half, a result that looks pretty good in hindsight.
Besides, are we really making the Saints road favorites? This team is 3-6 with two wins in the final minutes, and New Orleans could barely even move the ball against the Ravens on Monday night. Now they get a short week against a rested opponent, and they’re road favorites? I don’t see it.
Tomlin is 11-4 SU out of the bye, and you know this is an awesome Rah Rah underdog spot. Tomlin is 39-16-1 ATS (71%) as a dog from Week 5 forward, and he’s an absurd 14-2-1 ATS (88%) at home with nine straight covers and seven straight wins outright, including one with Pickett. Tomlin is 13-4 SU as a home dog in those games with a 98% ROI on the moneyline.
You really want to step in front of that train for Andy Dalton and Dennis Allen?
I sure don’t.
I love this spot for Pittsburgh. The Steelers are a different team at home, and the defense is another animal entirely with T.J. Watt. As long as he’s cleared to go, I love the rested, healthier Steelers to cover and win outright against an overvalued Saints team coming off a short week.
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Dylan Wilkerson: Mike Vrabel's Titans have made their game plan very clear: Pound the rock with Derrick Henry. The pass game for Tennessee is merely complementary to the run.
Regardless of who starts at QB for the Titans, the game plan will stay the same. Run and chew clock.
The Titans have scored 20 or less points five times this season, and Denver has allowed 21-plus points in only ONE game!
I am betting on Tennessee's offense to stall in this AFC showdown.
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John LanFranca: Off a primetime game in which they were close to upsetting the Chiefs on the road, this is a perfect spot to fade Titans recency bias.
Tennessee has covered in six straight games, so it's unlikely people will be rushing to wager on the visiting Broncos. Points will be at a premium in this game, as both teams have combined to score more than 24 points only once this season.
The Broncos boast the top defense in the NFL in yards per play allowed (4.5) while the Titans are 21st. No team has punted on a higher percentage of drives than the Titans, and the Broncos are best in the league on defense in points allowed per drive. I can’t foresee a scenario in which the Titans have sustained success on offense.
For all the offensive woes the Broncos have had on offense, they are coming off a bye and are now taking on a defense that was on the field for 91 plays last Sunday night.
Russell Wilson is 29-14-2 (67.4%) against the spread in his career as an underdog. When Wilson is a dog of three points or fewer on the road, he is 17-9-2 (65.4%) against the number. I expect a well-prepared Broncos team to pull off the upset.
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Cody Goggin: D’Andre Swift returned to the Lions’ lineup last weekend against the Packers. Coming into the game, however, it was known that he wouldn’t be 100%. His performance showed this as he had just two rushing attempts and three receptions.
Swift was back at practice as a full participant this week and I think that he will regain control of Detroit's backfield.
In Week 1 against the Eagles, Swift had 15 rush attempts for 144 yards. He had only five carries for 56 yards in Week 2 and then was injured in Week 3 after seven rush attempts. I think that Dan Campbell will give Swift a chance to have at least carries in this game.
According to PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, Detroit has the biggest advantage in the run game of any team playing this weekend (+38%). The Bears rank 23rd in rushing success rate against and 25th on defense in EPA per rush.
Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery have both split carries this season and not been super effective in most games. They tend to cannibalize the yardage for each other when the Bears’ rushing game does have success, suppressing their individual totals.
The X-factor here is Justin Fields. In recent weeks he has been a much more involved in the run game. Fields went nuclear with 178 rushing yards last week and had 88, 82 and 60 yards in the three games prior.
At 7/1 to have the most rushing yards in the game, D’Andre Swift offers some real value. There is downside risk if Campbell is not ready to fully deploy him or if someone on the Bears is able to have a strong day on the ground.
However, this is still a valuable price at +700 as the explosive Swift doesn’t need a heavy workload to put up big numbers.
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Sam Farley: There was shock when the Lions traded TJ Hockenson to the Vikings, with many, including myself, wondering what it would mean for his fantasy stock.
Early signs indicate that was needless worrying — he had a brilliant debut, hauling in all of his nine targets for 70 yards. Nine targets gives him a 21.9% target share on one of the league's most pass-oriented offenses. His brilliance as a blocker meant he was also on the field for all but five snaps, which just allows for more opportunity.
In truth, the Bills aren't the best opponent for a TE to face. They and the Jets are the only teams to not allow a touchdown to the position, but if Hockenson continues that usage — or if it increases — then he has a great chance of finding the end zone.
At +250 it's worth the gamble.
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Sam Farley: Sportsbooks have the odds for both rushing yards and anytime touchdown equal for both Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert. They shouldn't.
Wilson arrived in Miami — already familiar with Mike McDaniel's offense — and showed that he's the best fit for this team in his debut.
Despite it being just his first appearance after the trade from the 49ers, he was on the field more than Mostert and had more touches. Not only that, but he had over double the red-zone touches and his 5.7 yards per carry was far superior to Mostert (2.9).
This is Wilson's backfield and the books haven't caught up yet. Back him to beat his rushing yards line, currently 41.5, but I'd back it all the way to 49.5. You could also back him to find the end zone (+128).
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Sam Farley: We're going for a big win on a Giants prop this week with Saquon Barkley to score multiple touchdowns.
The visiting Texans have given up 13 touchdowns to running backs this season — now they face Barkley, one of the NFL's most unique and dynamic talents.
Two weeks ago, we saw Derrick Henry score two touchdowns against Houston. This defense allows an average of 187 rushing yards per game, a league high, and with a high snap share, we can predict Barkley to have plenty of opportunities.
The Texans have allowed 1.62 touchdowns to running backs per game, and a player of Barkley's quality, when combined with the opportunity, should be able to take advantage.
If you compare odds on our tool you can see that the best odds for Barkley to score 2+ are +420, and the worst are +270 — that discrepancy tells you just how likely some bookies think this outcome is, so we'll take that +420 and hopefully it'll offer us some value.
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Ricky Henne: We’re accustomed to watching the Chiefs march up and down the field, but they won’t be the only team doing so Sunday at Arrowhead. Jacksonville’s flown under the radar, but they boast a sneaky-good offense. They rank eighth in total offense, averaging 367.4 yards per game. The straw that stirs the drink is Travis Etienne, and signs point to him having another monster game in Kansas City.
Etienne’s been lights out over the past five weeks, averaging 125.8 total yards per game. His prowess led the Jaguars to jettison James Robinson to the Jets two weeks ago. Etienne’s touches have exploded ever since. Jacksonville’s put the ball in his hands on 57 of their 112 snaps over the past two games, accounting for 50.9% of all touches. Etienne’s done the most with his chances, posting 126 total yards against the Raiders and 162 vs. the Broncos.
I’m also putting a taste on an Etienne anytime touchdown (+120), as he's found the end zone in three straight games, including twice a week ago against the Raiders.
Still, with the type of volume he’s getting, my main focus is on Etienne eclipsing 102.5 rushing and receiving yards yet again.
