NFL Odds & Picks
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Derek Farnsworth: Everyone is betting on the Raiders, yet the line continues to move in favor of the Colts. This reverse line movement is something I try to avoid, but I can't get away from the Raiders this week.
The Colts fired Frank Reich and have brought in Jeff Saturday to be their interim head coach. He was working as an analyst at ESPN and hasn't coached above the high-school level. They have handed their play-calling duties to Parks Frazier and still have Sam Ehlinger as their quarterback.
All of this spells out a tank job for a better draft pick. The Raiders have underwhelmed for sure, but they are playing at home and are still actively trying to win football games.
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Anthony Dabbundo: Indianapolis' offensive situation is one of the most unprecedented in modern NFL history.
The Colts have fired their offensive coordinator and head coach over the last two weeks. They hired Jeff Saturday — who has zero coaching experience — and he tasked Parks Frazier with play-calling duties. Frazier has never called plays in the NFL and Saturday has made it clear that he's going to be more conservative than Frank Reich.
Given Saturday's background as an offensive lineman, it's fair to expect the Colts to run the ball early and often. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger has looked overmatched in his first two starts, while the offensive line continues to fail miserably to protect him.
Indy's offensive line is 31st in line yards and bottom five in adjusted sack rate. If the Colts manage to get into scoring position, expect Saturday to be extremely conservative and take field goals when possible.
While the offense has struggled, the Colts defense has quietly been one of the better units in football for the last month. The Raiders will be without their second and third receiving options as Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are sidelined. Davante Adams should have a solid afternoon, but the Colts are a top-six run defense by most metrics.
The only concern is the potential for Matt Ryan to be inserted into the game if Ehlinger struggles, but there will be a potential for a live middle if he does come in with the Colts down multiple scores. There's so much downside risk for the Colts to be an offensive catastrophe and very little upside for competence.
I'd bet the under at 41 or better, which is a key number in NFL totals.
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John LanFranca: It's hard to imagine a worse matchup for Arizona’s struggling interior offensive line. Aaron Donald will wreak havoc on the Cardinals offense and may single-handedly win this game for the Rams.
We have seen in past years what the Cards offense looks like when Kyler Murray's movement is limited, which is likely the case for Sunday as he is questionable to play with a hamstring injury. It's also hard to forget the playoff game between these teams just ten months ago when Arizona's offense accounted for 11 points and 183 total yards.
The Rams defense is allowing only 2.4 red-zone possessions per game, tied for the best in the league (per Sharp Football). It will be difficult for the Cardinals to overcome bad down and distance situations, as they are the worst offense in the NFL on first down, averaging only 4.4 yards per play.
It may sound like I am picking the Rams here, but it is impossible to back their offense right now. The Rams are last in the NFL in yards per play (4.7). I am confidently backing the under in a game that features banged up and limited offenses.
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Nick Bretwisch: With Romeo Doubs out, my Adjusted Expected Total Yards model is extremely high on the Packers’ most talented rookie, Christian Watson.
Watson is an absolute freak of a talent and he finally enters a game healthy and, on paper, the Packers' WR2. I trust that head coach Matt LaFleur will finally get Watson heavily involved — maybe get him a jet sweep or two while they’re at it.
Watson moves all over the formation and if we get a game where he gets 60% or more of the offensive snaps, production will come.
It looks like most of the betting market has adjusted a bit to the potential upside of Watson, but FanDuel still has him priced at +440 to score. My model has the anytime touchdown as an implied probability of 25.5%, which would make the "proper" line (in my eyes) right around +290.
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Simon Hunter: The only big home 'dog this week can be found in Green Bay.
Who could have seen this coming during the summer? Aaron Rodgers is an underdog of more than a field goal in November. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. It’s rare to see a back-to-back MVP be given up on by the public, but a five-game losing streak will do that.
Rodgers has never been a home underdog of more than +3 in his career. Green Bay might be bad, but not worse than a field goal against a Dallas team that has had its ups and downs this season. Even with Dad Prescott back, Dallas still hasn’t found its offensive identity.
The only weakness in this Cowboys defense is against the run. We already know what Green Bay wants to do, especially with the season on the line. I expect the Packers to establish the run to neutralize Micah Parsons.
I see this game being much closer than what the public expects. I’d bet this down to Packers +3.5.
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