Week 12 Picks & Predictions
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John LanFranca: I can go an entire NFL season without playing a double-digit favorite – it's simply not my style.
With that said, this Miami home spot is too good to pass up. The Dolphins’ passing attack boasts an incredible – and league best – 52.5% DVOA. The Texans are 25th in DVOA against the pass despite facing the likes of Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Taylor Heinicke, Daniel Jones and the broken version of the Bears offense. Their rush defense is even worse, ranking 31st in DVOA, with 91 rushing first downs surrendered (2nd most).
I don't see a scenario in which the Dolphins are held under 30 points, thus the only way for the Texans to cover this number is to get to 20 points, something they have only done once since Week 4.
We have the most explosive offense in football (158 plays of at least 10 yards) up against a Texans offense that ranks 31st in 10-plus yard offensive plays. One team is coming off a bye, while the other is coming off one of the season's worst offensive performances at 2.74 yards per play. Lay the number with the Dolphins.
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Brandon Anderson: I grabbed Ravens -3.5 on the Lookahead and still like them at -4.
The advanced metrics paint the Jaguars much closer to average than bad, but they don’t tell the whole story. Jacksonville was genuinely good in September, but are 1-6 since the start of October, ranking 27th in DVOA and 31st in defense.
The early mirage has passed. Jacksonville is bad.
On the other hand, Baltimore started a bit slower due to a slew of injuries, but it’s getting healthy and looking better and better. The Ravens rank third in DVOA on the season, and the defense is rising since the addition of Roquan Smith and the return of several starters. Baltimore is up to sixth defensively in DVOA the last five weeks, and second in two games with Smith.
The Jaguars are coming off a bye week, but the Ravens barely broke a sweat against the Panthers. Besides, Doug Pederson is just 1-4 ATS after the bye, while John Harbaugh is 10-4-2 ATS (71%) facing opponents with an extra week of prep.
If anything, Jacksonville’s bye and faux “home-field advantage” are buying us value on the number, especially since Baltimore’s offense has been far better on the road.
Road favorites of a TD or less facing an opponent off a bye week are 44-29-1 ATS, covering 60% of the time. When the road team is favored even with a rest disadvantage, the books are telling us to take the hint.
I like under (44), too. Unders for home underdogs are hitting at a 68% clip this season, and Pederson overs are 33-12 for his career (73%), including 5-0 this season. Baltimore games have gone over 44 only once since September.
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Brandon Anderson: The Commanders were a late-week bet in Week 11, and I’m going back to the well. I love this matchup for them.
The Commanders have a top-five run defense by DVOA, and they rank second against the run on first down. No team is more committed to the run than Atlanta, and the Falcons offense has dropped to league average over the past month after a great start.
Atlanta’s offensive line isn’t holding up, and Washington has one of the league’s fiercest pass rushes and could get Chase Young back. The Falcons, meanwhile, lost Kyle Pitts. And as frustrating as he’s been for fantasy owners, his versatility at tight end is absolutely vital to what this offense does. The Falcons will struggle to score, especially if Washington stops Atlanta’s usually efficient first-down offense.
It might be even worse on the other side. The Falcons rank last defensively on the road, and newly-named starter Taylor Heinicke is 10-2-1 ATS (83%) since the start of last November, in part because he’s getting the ball over 50% more often to Terry McLaurin than Carson Wentz did. Those two should have another big game with Atlanta’s secondary still banged up.
Washington has won five of six and is quietly in the playoff race at 6-5. The Falcons technically still are too, thanks to the NFC South, but these teams are moving in opposite directions.
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Dylan Wilkerson: The Panthers have had a revolving door at quarterback — P.J. Walker, Baker Mayfield and even Jacob Eason have taken snaps this season.
The unwillingness to commit to one leads me to believe that if Sam Darnold struggles in his first appearance since January, the coaching staff will be quick to pull him and give someone else a try.
The Broncos defense as a whole is great. However, their pass defense edges out their rush defense by a hair. D'Onta Foreman has been reliable for the Panthers, so I expect to see more screens and run plays called as opposed to shots down the field. This is for good reason: The Broncos only allow 5.8 yards per pass attempt, the best mark in the NFL.
Even if Darnold plays the entirety of the game, the Panthers' gameplan won't call for an air raid. I am betting on Darnold to lay an egg in his first game back.
