NFL Odds & Picks
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Brandon Anderson: Oh, you better believe we’re going back to Seattle Island.
The island didn’t come through in Germany, but that plus a bye week might have bought us another few weeks to find value on this team.
Seattle is good! The Seahawks still rank seventh in DVOA. They’re in the top quarter of the league on offense and special teams, and top half of the league — and improving — in defense.
This is also a team that should improve coming out of the bye, with a really young roster featuring five rookie starters in key positions. Seattle had won four in a row by double digits before losing in Germany, and this offense should eat against an awful Raiders defense.
Vegas ranks last in defensive DVOA on the season. The Raiders are last against the pass in EPA, and they’re not getting much pressure on opposing QBs, one remaining bugaboo for Geno Smith.
The Raiders offense has also been far worse on the road, and Seattle has one of the few real home-field advantages left in football with its 12th Man. The Raiders are 3-7. Those three wins came against the one-win Texans and twice against Nathaniel Hackett.
That team is barely a field goal underdog on the road against a genuinely good Seahawks team? I don’t buy it. Pete Carroll is 44-25-4 ATS (64%) after a loss, including 3-0 this season.
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Sam Farley: Through the first couple weeks of the season it looked like Gerald Everett was going to be a monster of a weapon for the Chargers. He found the end zone twice in the opening four games, but since then, we've seen less of him.
Now is his chance to to feast again, as he faces an Arizona team that’s allowed a league-worst nine touchdowns to tight ends in just 11 games.
The Cards average 78 yards allowed per game to the position so we should see Everett get some good yardage, in addition to finally getting back to his scoring ways.
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Nick Giffen: To say tight ends give the Cardinals fits would be an understatement.
Against the position, they are last in yards allowed, touchdowns allowed and targets per game allowed. Despite all of that, they aren’t last in defensive DVOA versus tight ends – just 31st.
Everett was sidelined with a groin issue in Week 11, but he has no injury designation this time around and practiced in full on Thursday and Friday. He’s the Chargers’ TE1 when healthy and plays no less than 55% of snaps. I have fair value for this play at +282.
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
