Week 16 NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Landon Silinsky: With the way the Browns offense has been playing, it's incredibly hard to lay points with them, even at home. Until Watson shakes off the rust, this team is going to struggle to score.
With the injuries to the Saints' WR corps, I expect them to have trouble moving the ball through the air in this spot, especially on the road, with the temperature expected to reach nine degrees below zero. Both of these teams will lean on their respective running games, with the Saints mixing in quite a bit of Taysom Hill.
With a ton of rushing attempts comes plenty of clock-killing drives and few stoppages. Combine that with the fact that both of these teams are having trouble putting the ball in the end zone, we could get quite a few stalled drives here and plenty of field goals.
Sportsbooks are virtually begging you to bet the over with the total sitting at 32.5 points, but this very much has the feel of a 17-14 type of contest.
Give me the under.
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Blake Krass: The weather is supposed to be below freezing in Baltimore on Saturday and Huntley could struggle to throw in this weather as he plays through his injury.
Ridder should also be limited in terms of his ability to create offense because of both the weather and the Ravens defense. I expect both teams to be incredibly run heavy and for this to turn into a field-position battle.
For those reasons, I am rolling with the under. The Ravens defense has been on a mission since Jackson went down and their offense has done nothing to inspire confidence. Go with the under in what could be the Ravens last game without Jackson.
Pick: Under 35.5 | Bet to 35 |
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Phillip Kall:The Bengals have managed to play well in all facets of the game during their winning streak. They have had games where they simply ran the ball nonstop to victory. They have also had games where their run game was muted, but found plenty of production through the air.
Last week, they were able to get a comfortable victory against the Buccaneers despite trailing 17-0 early and the offense only producing 237 total yards. Last year, they were in the Super Bowl and this year they look even better.
The Patriots, on the other hand, look to be spiraling down the drain. They end their season against the Dolphins and Bills and likely need to win two of their last three games. New England's defense is up to the challenge; the same can't be said for its offense.
A common thought is a weather-influenced game benefits the defensive-minded team. In this case, that would appear to be New England, but there is one big problem with that view: Cincinnati isn't viewed as a defensive team because the offense is so good.
The Bengals are ninth in yards allowed per rush and have stifled some of the best run offenses in recent weeks. If the weather forces teams to run more, that plays into a strength of the Bengals.
We saw a weather-impacted game last year for the Patriots and they completely abandoned the pass. The conditions in this game will not be nearly as bad, but we have already seen New England abandon the pass in games with good weather.
New England will be even more one dimensional and Cincinnati has the talent outside to make short completions into big plays. A field goal is little to give up in this matchup and I think the Bengals are too complete of a team for the Patriots to keep up.
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Sam Farley: With the divisional title on the line it is time for Buffalo's star players to stand up and be counted on — Stefon Diggs will do just that.
Diggs, a Pro-Bowler for the third consecutive season, is +135 to find the endzone and he is a must-bet. Through 14 games, he has 10 touchdowns to go with 1,299 yards.
Diggs hasn't scored since Week 13, but against the Bears, he has a great chance to get back on track as Chicago has given up 11 touchdowns to wide receivers this year. If this wasn't obviously a plus matchup already, it's also worth noting the Bears are 31st in overall defensive DVOA and 30th in pass defense DVOA.
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| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -118 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +166 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -104 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -198 |
The Great Foosini: I use an economic regression model to predict outcomes, and I have the Vikings as 3.4 points better at home.
There are two aspects of these teams that make me want to take the Giants.
The first is how the Vikings have been valued and performed at home in recent weeks. They were three-point favorites against the Patriots, 3.5-point favorites against the Jets and four-point favorites against the Colts. They won all three games yet were outplayed and should have lost in the first two and needed the biggest comeback in NFL history to win the third.
Which team should have won is always debatable, but it's not debatable that each game was so close.
The second reason is how the Giants remain competitive in almost every game. Whether they're miraculously beating the Ravens or backdooring the Cowboys, they find a way to win or be close.
They have not performed well against highly efficient offenses (Seahawks, Lions and Eagles), but we don't have that here. The Vikings can explode, but they can also implode, and I'm not treating them as a highly efficient unit. The best unit statistically on the field in this game is the Giants offense (something I never thought I'd say), and I like that when I'm getting more than a field goal.
I'm actually going to make two picks on this game. In these close home contests for the Vikings, points have been aplenty.
Pick: Giants +3.5 | Over 47.5 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-115 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | -146 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | +124 |
Dylan Wilkerson:I normally lean toward player props in game previews, but the chance to get the Lions at a good number has me deviating from my norm.
Detroit has proven capable of handling the blitz, and Carolina has not. Normally the Panthers defense keeps them in games and gives them an edge, but this high-powered Lions offense will impose their will. I am backing the Lions to keep their playoff hopes alive.
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| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +385 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -500 |
John LanFranca:Underdogs of more than seven points this season are 26-15-1 (63.4%) against the spread. Since the beginning of 2018, underdogs of six or more points playing against teams with a better than 75% win percentage are 44-33 (57.1%) against the spread. In Pete Carroll’s career, he is 46-30-3 (60.5%) against the number when catching points. When Carroll is an underdog of three points or more, he is 34-19-3 (64.2%) against the spread.
Under Andy Reid, when the Chiefs are favorites of seven points or higher, the under has cashed at a 70% rate. The temperatures in Kansas City on Saturday will be nearing single digits and the winds will be around 13 mph.
I can’t back the under with the way these two defenses have played recently, but I do believe the Chiefs running game will be featured a bit more than most expect and that points may be a touch harder to to come by than we’ve typically seen in games involving these teams.
In a game in which I can back one of the better quarterbacks in the league this season catching double-digit points against a porous defense, I will gladly take the value with the visiting Seahawks.
Pick: Seahawks +10 |
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| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 35.5 -106o / -114u | +146 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 35.5 -106o / -114u | -174 |
Cody Goggin:In a week where much of the league is being ravished by inclement weather, this game will avoid most of it. At the time of this writing, the forecast calls for a chilly 18 degrees, with wind chills in the single digits. However, the extreme winds plaguing much of the country likely won't be a factor. Winds are expected to be around 10 mph with gusts around 20 mph.
The Titans were able to completely dominate the last time these teams played and I think their defense will have a repeat performance in these conditions. Malik Willis adds uncertainty to this picture as he could end up giving some points to Houston via turnovers, but I think Houston will fail to hit 17 points this weekend.
Pick: Texans Under 16.5 Points (-115) | Bet to Under 16 Points (-120)
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -106 | 37.5 -112o / -108u | +245 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -114 | 37.5 -112o / -108u | -300 |
Ricky Henne: As noted, both defenses are lights out and among the best in the league. However, while Heinicke and company will likely struggle to move the ball, the 49ers’ offense looks far more capable of putting up points.
The Commanders have struggled to score against the likes of the Giants (twice) and Falcons over their last three games. They’ve averaged 17.0 points per game over that span against a New York defense ranked 19th in total DVOA (11.4%) and an Atlanta squad ranked 30 (12.5%). If they couldn’t score against those bottom-dwelling defenses, how can we expect them to fare better against the 49ers?
Meanwhile, for San Francisco, it’s simply impossible to ignore the McCaffrey factor. As Evan Abrams points out in his Week 16 betting trends primer – a must-read every week – the 49ers are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread since Week 8 when McCaffrey got up to full speed. At the same time, San Francisco’s averaging 29.7 points per game with Purdy under center, which is sixth-most in the league over that span.
If you told me three weeks ago that I’d be laying seven points with Brock Purdy at the helm, I’d have said you were flat out crazy. Yet here I am alongside the sharps and public in doing just that.
Six of the 49ers’ wins over their seven-game winning streak have been by over eight points, and there are plenty of reasons to think they’ll do so yet again. Still, I'm one of those who hate betting on even spreads of seven and three, so feel free to join me in buying the hook.
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| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 47.5 -106o / -114u | +168 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 47.5 -106o / -114u | -200 |
Anthony Dabbundo: The total in this game sat at 50.5 on the lookahead and has come down 3-4 points following news that Hurts would not play. I'm going to buy the over at a lower price now because both offenses still have paths to success.
Minshew may not be as effective or consistent as Hurts, but he's also plenty volatile. He's more likely to make a turnover or really bad play under pressure than Hurts, which could produce a Dallas short field.
The lacking talent in the Dallas wide receiver room and the design of the offense has also led to Prescott throwing into more tight windows than any other year in his career. That's a major reason why his interceptions are up, and Philadelphia has been very opportunistic defensively in forcing turnovers.
At the end of last season, Philadelphia rested its entire lineup, and the Eagles still moved the ball somewhat consistently on the Cowboys defense. It's a high quality offensive system, and Minshew should get them to at least 20 points.
From that point, I expect Dallas to continue its offensive success under Prescott against a Philadelphia defense that wants to be vanilla and not show anything schematically against a potential playoff rival.
