NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: An Expert’s Guide To Betting Chargers-Broncos, Rams-Packers, Vikings-49ers

DFS Plays

Keenan Allen has at least five catches and 50 yards in all but one game. He is a locked-in cash game play against a Broncos defense ranked 28th in DVOA against No.1 WRs.

Justin Herbert is a top-five QB play on this slate versus Denver’s man-heavy scheme, which could give him more opportunities to scramble with defenders’ backs turned. Herbert is averaging 42.0 rushing yards over his last three games. He is cash-viable on FanDuel at $7,800, with even Cam Newton priced above him.

Mike Williams is a dicey GPP play. The fifth-year pro is averaging more yards per route versus zone (2.12) than man (1.51), but he and Allen have combined for 61% of the team’s targets against man. Williams’ yardage numbers versus man would undoubtedly look better if he hadn’t dropped 13% of his targets.

The Broncos are ranked 10th in DVOA versus TEs, so this isn’t a spot to target Jared Cook. The Broncos are also down to 28th in run defense DVOA, entrenching Austin Ekeler as a top-five RB play.

The top pass catchers to target on the Broncos this week are Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy. Fant faces a Chargers defense that's allowed the eighth-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to TEs and is ranked 28th in DVOA to the position. Jeudy has proven to be the Broncos No. 1 WR over Courtland Sutton. In the four games they have played together, Jeudy is averaging 5.5 catches for 57.0 yards while Sutton is averaging just 1.5 catches for 23.0 yards.

The Chargers are ranked top-five in DVOA versus WR2s and non-WR1/2s, so this isn’t a spot to target Tim Patrick.

The Chargers are the ultimate run funnel defense, ranking top-10 in DVOA versus the pass but dead-last against the run, so this is a spot to fade Teddy Bridgewater and target Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams.

• Cash Plays: QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen
• GPP Plays: RB Austin Ekeler, RB Javonte Williams, RB Melvin Gordon, WR Mike Williams, WR Jerry Jeudy, TE Noah Fant

DFS Plays

Deebo Samuel, the NFL’s second-leading receiver at 99.4 yards per game, has gotten 13 carries over the past two games. Samuel is an auto-play in cash games at this point. He faces a Vikings defense ranked eighth in defensive passing DVOA overall, but 25th against No. 1 WRs.

The Vikings are also ranked 29th against WR2 but eighth against TEs, so Brandon Aiyuk has more value than George Kittle this week, especially when price is taken into account.

As the Vikings set up as a run funnel, ranking 19th spots lower in DVOA against the run (27th) than the pass (eighth), I’m fading Jimmy Garoppolo and targeting Elijah Mitchell, who should return from his finger injury this week. Mitchell is averaging 17.9 touches for 90.4 yards per game. If Mitchell sits, Jeff Wilson becomes the play.

The 49ers are ranked 22nd in defensive passing DVOA, but a lot of that is due to penalties, which won’t necessarily help Kirk Cousins’ stat line. As the 49ers are also liable to shorten the game if they continue to go run-heavy, I’m fading Cousins this week. The lone member of the Vikings passing game to target is Justin Jefferson, as San Francisco is 24th in DVOA against WR1s but ninth versus WR2s.

This is a tough matchup for Dalvin Cook, as the 49ers are ranked third in DVOA against the run, but Cook’s averages of 22.7 touches and 109.1 yards per game keep him in GPP consideration.

• Cash Plays: WR Deebo Samuel
• GPP Plays: RB Dalvin Cook, RB Elijah Mitchell, RB Jeff Wilson (if Mitchell sits), WR Justin Jefferson, WR Brandon Aiyuk

DFS Plays

Aaron Jones (knee-questionable) practiced on a limited basis to close out the week, but given that the Packers have a bye next week and tend to be conservative with their injured players, A.J. Dillon will likely get a start and should be locked into cash game lineups. You can always pivot to Jones for $100 more if he ends up playing, but I’d stick with Dillon either way, as he’d likely continue to lead the backfield after forcing a near 50-50 split even before Jones went down.

The Rams are ranked seventh in run defense DVOA, but tend to concede the run in matchups against QBs like Aaron Rodgers (questionable-toe). Rodgers is a fade this week, as he missed practice all week with his toe injury and could see Jalen Ramsey covering his top target, Davante Adams. The Rams are top-six in DVOA against deep passes, so Marquez Valdes-Scantling is unlikely to have a repeat of last week’s 100-yard game. Adams remains the only Packers WR worth rostering.

Coming off a bye after stewing on back-to-back losses, this is a spot to target the Rams offense.

Darrell Henderson is viable in cash games against a Packers defense ranked 26th in DVOA against the run. Henderson is averaging 16.6 touches for 83.0 yards per game.

The Packers have overachieved in pass defense, rankings 12th in DVOA, but the wheels came off last week as Kirk Cousins threw for 341 yards and three TDs. Cooper Kupp is the top WR play on the slate, while Van Jefferson, Odell Beckham Jr. and Tyler Higbee offer good value. At $5,400 on FanDuel, Higbee is viable in cash games. The Packers present a good matchup for Higbee, ranking 26th in DVOA against TEs.

• Cash Plays: RB Darrell Henderson, RB A.J. Dillon, TE Tyler Higbee
• GPP Plays: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Davante Adams, WR Van Jefferson, WR Odell Beckham Jr.

DFS Plays

Last Thursday, Rhamondre Stevenson handled 13 touches while playing 34% of the snaps, and Damien Harris saw 11 looks while logging a 39% snap rate. Even against a middling Titans run defense that ranks 18th in DVOA, the Patriots backfield makes for unreliable DFS options due to the near even split.

Because the Patriots are favored by a touchdown and Mac Jones has thrown for more than 231 yards only once in New England’s seven wins, this isn’t a spot to target the Patriots passing game.The lone exception is Jakobi Meyers, as the Titans are above-average in DVOA on passes to the left and right but 23rd on passes to the middle, and Meyers leads the Patriots with a 29% target share on passes to the middle.

In three games without Derrick Henry (IR-foot), the Titans have averaged just 292.6 total yards per game while turning it over six times, so this is a prime spot to target the Patriots DST.

The Patriots are up to second in pass defense DVOA, so the entire Titans passing game is a fade. The lone player who is worth a GPP dart throw on the Titans is Dontrell Hilliard, who had 15 touches for 82 yards last week and impressed the coaching staff enough that they cut ties with Adrian Peterson. The Patriots are ranked eighth in DVOA against the run but 26th on passes to RBs.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: RB Dontrell Hilliard, WR Jakobi Meyers, DST New England Patriots

DFS Plays

Against a run-funnel Texans defense ranked sixth in DVOA versus the pass but 23rd on the ground, Tevin Coleman is a min-priced cash-game punt option on DraftKings who enables you to stack the rest of your lineup with studs. With Michael Carter (ankle) sidelined, Coleman will likely lead the Jets in carries while Ty Johnson remains their main passing down back. Coleman handled 5-of-6 non-Carter backfield carries last week.

The Texans play the 11th-most zone via Lovie Smith’s Tampa 2 scheme, which sets up well for Corey Davis relative to Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder. Davis is averaging 2.49 yards per route against zone compared to just 1.50 for Moore and 1.21 for Crowder. As Moore will likely be the most highly rostered Jets WR, Davis makes for an excellent leverage play. Zach Wilson will likely struggle against Houston’s surprisingly competent pass defense, but he has targeted Davis 14 more times than any other Jets receiver.

The Texans are the top DST value on the board at DraftKings at $2,300 and makes sense as a punt play in cash games.

Tyrod Taylor and Brandin Cooks are high-upside GPP options against a Jets defense ranked dead-last in DVOA against the pass. Cooks has hogged 29% of Houston’s targets this season.

Rex Burkhead has ascended to lead-back status in Houston, leading the backfield with 27 carries and 18 snaps last week. He is worth a flier against a Jets run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA.

• Cash Plays: RB Tevin Coleman, DST Houston Texans
• GPP Plays: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Rex Burkhead, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Corey Davis

DFS Plays

Although the Giants defense has been better against the pass (11th in DVOA) than the run (30th), Jalen Hurts is a high-upside GPP play each and every week. He is the QB5 in per-game scoring on the year.

The Giants play zone at the ninth-highest rate, so Hurts is stackable with either Dallas Goedert or DeVonta Smith, who lead the Eagles in yards per route against zone with 2.42 and 2.02, respectively.

And with Jordan Howard (knee) out, this is a smash spot for Miles Sanders against the Giants’ bottom-three run defense. Sanders returned from injury last week to lead the Eagles backfield in snaps (36) and carries (16).

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The Giants have fired offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, and the team’s beat writers seem to think one of the reasons was a lack of touches for the team’s top playmakers, namely Kenny Golladay. Among Giants players with at least 20 targets, Golladay leads the team with 9.5 yards per target. Despite the presence of Darius Slay, the Eagles are 26th in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs. Golladay is in play in GPPs this week with Sterling Shepard (quad) out and Kadarius Toney (quad) likely to sit.

Evan Engram is also in play against an Eagles defense ranked 31st in DVOA against TEs. However, Daniel Jones is a fade without two of his top pass catchers against Philly’s zone-heavy scheme, which could limit his rushing production.

Under a new OC, Saquon Barkley is a sneaky play. The Eagles rank 21st in DVOA against the run.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: QB Jalen Hurts, RB Miles Sanders, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DeVonta Smith, WR Kenny Golladay, TE Dallas Goedert, TE Evan Engram

DFS Plays

Tom Brady will take on a Colts' pass-funnel defense that's ranked second in DVOA against the run and 20th against the pass. Brady, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are top plays at their respective positions as a result. And Rob Gronkowski is cash-viable on DraftKings at just $4,400 after returning from injury to catch 6-of-8 targets for 71 yards. Plus the Colts are ranked 24th in DVOA versus TEs.

Leonard Fournette is a fade in the tough matchup, though.

Despite facing a Bucs defense ranked fourth in run-defense DVOA, Jonathan Taylor will continue to be the top RB play in fantasy. With 100-plus yards in three straight and six of his last eight, Taylor is essentially the closest option we have to Derrick Henry, numbers-wise.

The Bucs defense is also seventh against the pass, so I would fade Carson Wentz and target the Bucs DST instead. Tampa Bay is capable of jumping ahead by 1-2 scores early, which could force Indianapolis to go away from the run game and force Wentz to make plays. Tampa plays zone at the sixth-highest rate, so Indy's lone pass catcher worth rostering is Michael Pittman, who leads the team in targets (34), catches (28) and yards (389) versus zone.

• Cash Plays: TE Rob Gronkowski
• GPP Plays: QB Tom Brady, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin, WR Michael Pittman Jr., DST Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DFS Plays

Matt Ryan and Co. will face a Jacksonville defense that sets up as an extreme pass funnel from an efficiency standpoint, ranking fifth in DVOA against the run but 31st versus the pass. With Mike Davis stuck in the mud and Qadree Ollison out with an illness, the Falcons have no reason to run except when they’re putting the ball in the hands of dual-threat weapon Cordarrelle Patterson. This is a spot to target Ryan, Kyle Pitts, Patterson and Russell Gage. Patterson is cash-viable on FanDuel.

The Jags also rank in the bottom-three in DVOA against WR2s, but Olamide Zaccheus and Tajae Sharpe are splitting those duties.

The Falcons are 29th in defensive DVOA, including 24th against the pass and 29th against the run. This will be one of the few times to target the entire Jags offense for value, including Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones Jr. Shenault is expected to see an uptick in rushing usage with Jamal Agnew on IR.

I wouldn’t mess with Dan Arnold this week, as James O'Shaughnessy is expected to be active for the first time since Week 1, when he drew eight targets.

• Cash Plays: RB Cordarrelle Patterson
• GPP Plays: QB Matt Ryan, QB Trevor Lawrence, RB James Robinson, WR Marvin Jones Jr., WR Laviska Shenault, WR Russell Gage, TE Kyle Pitts

DFS Plays

Despite losing 27-21 to the Washington Football Team, Cam Newton looked better than expected in his first start of the year, completing 21-of-27 attempts for 189 yards with two TDs and no picks while adding 10-46-1 on the ground. This week, he will face a Dolphins defense ranked 21st in DVOA against the pass and 13th versus the run. Newton is priced as the QB3 on FanDuel but is only $5,600 on DraftKings. His price makes him the top cash game value at the position on the latter.

I’m not stacking Newton with anyone except Christian McCaffrey in GPPs this week. The Dolphins are seventh in DVOA versus WR1s and 15th against WR2s while their worst positions are non-WR1/2s (31st) and TEs (29th) — two spots where Carolina employs platoons (Terrace Marshall Jr. and Brandon Zylstra at WR3, Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas at TE).

McCaffrey is a top-two RB play against a Miami run defense ranked outside the top 20. After being eased in his first two games back with snap rates of 49% and 59%, respectively, McCaffrey logged 90% of the downs last week.

After a string of cake matchups, Tua Tagovailoa may been in for a rude awakening against a Panthers pass defense that ranks fifth in DVOA. I’m fading him and targeting the Panthers DST in GPPs.

The Panthers are 31st in DVOA versus WR1s but third versus TEs, so this is a week to target Jaylen Waddle and fade Mike Gesicki.

Phillip Lindsay being added to the backfield shouldn’t scare us away from Myles Gaskin, as the Dolphins are simply looking for a back to replace Malcolm Brown, who went on IR a few weeks ago. Gaskin has a plus-matchup against a Panthers defense that is ranked top-five in DVOA against the pass but 20th versus the run. Gaskin’s touch counts over the past five games are 19, 15, 26, 15 and 26.

• Cash Plays: QB Cam Newton
• GPP Plays: RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Myles Gaskin, WR Jaylen Waddle, DST Carolina Panthers

DFS Plays

With double-digit targets in all but two games and five-plus catches in all but one, Diontae Johnson should be locked into cash game lineups. The Bengals also play the 10th-most zone coverage, which should benefit Chase Claypool, who leads all Steelers WRs and TEs in yards per route versus zone (1.89). That makes Claypool is a high-upside GPP play.

Pat Freiermuth also has a plus-matchup, as the Bengals are ranked 22nd in DVOA versus TEs. Freiermuth should go back to being a full-time player with Eric Ebron (knee) back on the shelf.

The Bengals have been below-average in pass defense overall (19th in DVOA), but Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 300 yards only once and multiple scores three times this season. His pass catchers will remain better plays than him. In fact, the Bengals DST are worth a punt play on FanDuel at $3,300 versus the immobile Roethlisberger.

Najee Harris’ 23.7 touches per game keep him in GPP consideration regardless of matchup. The Bengals are 10th in run defense DVOA and 18th on passes to RBs.

The Steelers’ ranking of 26th in pass defense DVOA is a bit misleading, as they haven’t always been at full strength. Their play should exceed that ranking this week with the returns of T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Ja’Marr Chsse has 50-plus yards and/or a TD in all but one game and should be able to overcome a relatively tough matchup as the Steelers rank 10th in DVOA versus WR2s. Tee Higgins will likely be Joe Burrow’s No. 2 option in this spot, as Pittsburgh plays the eighth-most zone, and Higgins leads Cincinnati with 2.10 yards per route versus zone coverage. With Burrow cooling off to the run of 215.0 yards and 0.5 TDs passing over the past two games, I’m fading him and his ancillary pass catchers, Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah.

Joe Mixon saw 30 touches last week and is averaging 20.2 for the season, keeping him in GPP consideration against a middling Steelers run defense ranked 16th in DVOA.

• Cash Plays: WR Diontae Johnson, DST Cincinnati Bengals
• GPP Plays: RB Najee Harris, RB Joe Mixon, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins, WR Chase Claypool, TE Pat Freiermuth