Giants vs. Bucs Odds, Predictions, Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Over 49.5 |
| Giants +11 |
| Lean Giants +11 |
Over 49.5
Chris Raybon: It's tough to play the spread here. On one hand, you would expect this to be a get-right spot for the Bucs at home against a bad Giants team. According to our Action Labs data, Tom Brady is 41-16 (72%) against the spread (ATS) coming off of a loss and 7-2 (78%) ATS off a multi-game losing streak. On the other hand, laying double-digit spreads is an easy way to deplete your bankroll in this parity-driven era. This is also one of those spots where the Giants tend to hang around: They're 12-5 (71%) ATS on the road with Daniel Jones, including 11-3 (79%) ATS as a road underdog.
Instead of attacking the spread, I'd look to the total. I have the number projected at 51.5, but it's sitting at 49.5 or 50 at most sportsbooks. What puts it over the top is how well the Bucs have played at home, where they've averaged 40.5 points and their combined scores have averaged 59.0 points.
And since Bruce Arians took over as head coach of the Bucs, his "no risk it, no biscuit" mantra has produced a winning over record every season and a 26-15 (63%) over record overall, including 13-7 (65%) at Raymond James Stadium. I’d play this to 51. You can read my full betting preview for Monday Night Football — and this pick — in my Giants-Bucs guide here.
Giants +11
Michael Arinze: The Buccaneers will try to snap a two-game losing streak when they return home to take on the Giants on Monday night. While part of their recent slump can be attributed to injuries, the reality is that no one has played exceptionally well for them of late on either side of the ball. It all starts with the quarterback, Tom Brady, who's had back-to-back two-interception games in the losses.
While it's fair to hold Brady responsible, Tampa Bay has usually managed to overcome turnovers thanks to a stout defense. However, we're seeing a defensive unit that doesn't seem to have the depth to withstand the injuries to key players.
The secondary has been poor, and bringing back Richard Sherman was a desperation move that seemed doomed to fail from the onset. Now, nose tackle Vita Vea is listed as doubtful. If we shift to the offense, Antonio Brown is ruled out, and who knows what the Buccaneers will get out of Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski's return from a punctured lung and fractured ribs in Week 8 lasted only five plays due to back spasms.
When you put it all together, I don't think we're seeing the true version of this Buccaneers team at the moment, which is why laying 11 points with them in this spot seems like a tough ask.
If there's one team that won't be afraid of taking on the Super Bowl champs, it's the Giants.
New York is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings of this matchup. The visiting team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
The underdog is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings of this matchup. New York is a perfect 2-0 ATS facing Brady following a win.
Lastly, as a double-digit underdog, the Giants are 11-2 for 8.2 units in their last 13 games.
I'll be risking a half-unit to take the 11 points with the road underdogs. You shouldn't have any issues finding that price as it's widely available at multiple sportsbooks.
Lean Giants +11
Brandon Anderson: Let’s see, Tom Brady vs. the New York Giants, where have I seen this before?
The Giants are the one team that’s had Brady’s number over the past two decades. Brady is 181-122-9 ATS in the regular and postseason, covering an incredible 59.7% of the time against every team not named the Giants. Against them, he’s 2-6 ATS lifetime — that includes a near loss in December 2007 to almost blow the perfect season, a Super Bowl loss two months later to actually blow it, and another Super Bowl loss to the Giants a few years later.
Five of Brady’s eight meetings with the Giants have finished within four points. And by the way, Peyton and Eli Manning will be covering this game over on ESPN2. Some things are just meant to be.
The Bucs are obviously a far better team, but this squad hasn’t been the same over the last month. I thought they would be a regular-season juggernaut, but they’ve just been crushed by injuries. Brady hasn’t looked the same without Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, and the secondary remains beatable without Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Richard Sherman. Now supreme run-stuffer Vita Vea is out, too.
It feels like the Bucs are just trying to make it to the postseason, and for the first time all year, I’m getting a little worried about my BradyMVP tickets.
Brady’s 60% ATS cover rate drops to 55% as a double-digit favorite and just 5-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite in night games. Weirdly enough, the last two of such games have come against these Giants, including a 25-23 Bucs escape last year. Then again, Brady is 4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite with the Bucs, with wins by 35, 28, 23 and 40. Then again, that one failed cover was that Giants game.
We know Daniel Jones is better on the road. Saquon Barkley could finally be back, right as Vea goes missing. Some teams just have your number, even if you’re Tom Brady. I’d play this to +10.5.
