Puka Nacua has absolutely boomed up the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds table, but it's still the incumbent Bijan Robinson holding down the No. 1 spot.
Meanwhile, Anthony Richardson is still firmly in the No. 2 hole, too, despite a concussion that kept him out for most of the Colts' win over the Texans on Sunday and may sideline him for Week 3. The rookie quarterback out of Florida played so well, though, that he's still sitting pretty as the second-best favorite in this market.
Robinson has been nothing short of excellent despite the competition. The rookie out of Texas has 255 all-purpose yards and one touchdown over two weeks. And expect his usage rate to increase even further. The Falcons rely on their running backs at an incredibly high frequency. Atlanta leads the league so far in run play percentage at 56.5% — about 2.5% higher than the next best team.
Last season, they ran the ball more than 55% of their overall snaps, including almost 49% when losing. That was good for second-most in the NFL.
Nacua has been the real surprise, however. In Cooper Kupp's absence, Nacua has put up 266 yards on 25 catches, the most receptions out of any rookie in history through two games. Nacua also leads the league with 111 yards after catch.
Not bad for a fifth-rounder who was off the board in this marketplace before the season.
NFL OROY Odds: Puka Nacua, Anthony Richardson, Bijan Robinson
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young and Texans quarterback CJ Stroud have experienced precipitous drops since their preseason highs. In some respects, it's to no faults of their own — they're both injured. Young missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle ailment and Stroud is dealing with a shoulder injury.
It makes sense, despite their play, why they're still high up the board, though. Quarterbacks win this award.
Here are the four main points to know about betting this market.
1. Big favorites don't tend to win.
2. Almost any position can win — but QBs tend to be the best bet.
3. Draft slot is incredibly predictive — we almost certainly need a first-round pick.
4. Voters care more about big stats than winning.
That's courtesy of my colleague Brandon Anderson, who put several units on Bijan Robinson at +450 odds once this market opened up in May.
