For tonight's NFL parlay, we're backing three legs — two on the same player — for Buccaneers vs. Chiefs.
Kickoff for Bucs vs. Chiefs is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
NFL Parlay: Buccaneers-Chiefs
- Xavier Worthy Anytime TD Scorer (+175)
- Xavier Worthy Over 43.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
- Buccaneers +9
Gilles Gallant: Worthy has five touchdowns this season, three through the air and two on the ground.
In terms of his general role in the Chiefs offense, it's growing. Worthy's target rate has steadily increased, especially since Rashee Rice's season-ending injury. In the last three games without Rice, Worthy has seen 20 targets and has scored two touchdowns. He also has back-to-back games with multiple red-zone targets.
I know DeAndre Hopkins is in the fold now, but he's still getting up to speed with the Chiefs offense. Plus, this is a great matchup for Worthy.
The Buccaneers play zone coverage at a top-seven rate in the NFL. Well, Worthy is the only Chiefs pass-catcher who has a touchdown this season against zone coverage, and he has two.
Sean Koerner: I think this is a good spot to invest in Worthy's update. As Gilles mentioned, his role is growing without Rice in the fold. More importantly, he has a 28% target rate since the Chiefs' Week 6 bye. That's normal for a rookie receiver to see his usage increase following the week off.
Worthy is also due for positive catch regression. He's only caught 51% of his targets so far this season with a 70% expected catch rate.
I also like attacking his rushing + receiving market here because of his upside on the ground. The Buccaneers have allowed three of the four wide receivers with a rush attempt agains them this season to go for 15 or more yards.
I'm projecting his median closer to 47.5 in this market and love his upside.
Nick Giffen: This is a tough matchup for Patrick Mahomes. The Buccaneers play Cover 3 at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and that's the coverage Mahomes has struggled most against this season.
The Chiefs blitz a ton and get a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but Mayfield's splits are actually pretty equal agains the blitz or a clean pocket. I don't downgrade him as much in this matchup as I would with other quarterbacks.
Tampa Bay is also coming off two unlucky results, which means the final score was closer than the final margin indicates, while Kansas City is coming off two lucky results. Also, the Chiefs have been the luckier team all season.
