Since the dawn of betting, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay for Chargers vs. Ravens on Monday Night Football this week.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Weeks 6 and 10, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Monday Night Football parlay for Week 12 on BetMGM.
Chargers vs. Ravens Parlay for Monday Night Football
- Under 51 (-110)
- Quentin Johnston Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- Lamar Jackson Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
- Gus Edwards Anytime Touchdown (+400)
Chargers vs. Ravens Parlay Odds: +2200 | $10 Bet Wins $220
Leg 1: Under 51 (-110)
This total has been rising throughout the week, after opening as low as 47. BetMGM is now all the way up to 51, the first (and so far, only) major book to move the total that high.
While we're tracking more of the money on the over in our PRO Report (available to Action PRO subscribers), my suspicion is most of that money came in on a lower number. Our PRO Projections make the right line 49.9, which suggests most of the over money came in when the total was still in the 40s.
From an on-field standpoint, the Chargers are the league's No. 1 scoring defense. Both defensive units rank above average in terms of Defensive DVOA, and I'm projecting a tough matchup for the Chargers' offensive line in both the running and passing game.
The Chargers also play fairly slowly, ranking fourth in seconds per snap in the NFL. While they've pivoted to throwing the ball more since their bye week, they're still taking their time in doing so.
That helps explain why Los Angeles has been in just one game with over 44 points this year, last week's 34-27 win against the Bengals. While Baltimore is allowing plenty of passing production this season, they're a much better defense than the Bengals. That makes it hard to see the Chargers putting up another big score in the Harbaugh Bowl on Monday Night.
Leg 2: Quentin Johnston Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
The Ravens have faced the most pass attempts per game of any NFL team this season at 39.5. Part of that is due to the fact that the Ravens are generally leading. However, teams have figured out Baltimore is more vulnerable through the air in recent weeks. Since Week 8, the Ravnes have also faced the second-highest Pass Rate Over Expectation — which adjusts for the score — in the league.
Baltimore also plays man coverage at the 12th-highest rate in the league. Against man coverage, Johnston's target share nearly doubles, going from 16% vs. zone to 31.7% vs. man.
Add those together and we can project a bigger passing pie, with a bigger chunk of that pie going to Johnston. Plus, since we're on the under already, we're getting better odds because of the anti-correlation.
Leg 3: Lamar Jackson Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
On the other side of the field, the Chargers play zone defense at the fourth highest rate in the league. It's easier for quarterbacks to pick up yards on the ground against man defense, as I pointed out in my Anthony Richardson player prop this week.
Jackson has the opposite situation, with the Chargers' zone-heavy scheme likely to limit both his rushing efficiency and opportunities.
Unfortunately BetMGM doesn't have the best line for this prop, as DraftKings has a line two yards higher. I prefer getting the better number on the total rather than the prop, but you could certainly switch if you're nervous about Jackson finishing right in this range.
Leg 4: Gus Edwards Anytime Touchdown (+400)
Edwards has taken a backseat to J.K. Dobbins in the Chargers' backfield this season. However, in the two games since he's returned from injury, Edwards has twice as many red-zone carries as Dobbins, while they each have a single target inside the 20-yard line.
Edwards hasn't converted any of those attempts yet, but odds are that turns around if he keeps seeing solid usage. Plus, we're getting a massive odds boost considering that we've already taken the under in this parlay.
This is also the best anytime TD in our prop projections, with a 4.8% edge. Consider betting a version of this parlay without the anytime touchdown prop (at +450 odds) with an extra sprinkle on this juicy version at +2200.
Chargers vs. Ravens Parlay Odds: +2200 | $10 Bet Wins $220
