What's primetime football without a little same-game parlay sweat?
Action Network NFL experts Sean Koerner, Nick Giffen and Gilles Gallant cooked up a juicy NFL parlay for tonight's Monday Night Football game between the Falcons and Raiders.
Be sure to subscribe to the Action Network YouTube channel, where our experts give out their picks on Action Island each week. If you missed this week's show, you can read about their picks below.
Falcons vs. Raiders Monday Night Football Parlay
- Tre Tucker Over 2.5 Receptions
- Drake London Anytime Touchdown
- Kirk Cousins Under 238.5 Passing Yards
Parlay Odds: +1200 (bet365)
Tre Tucker Over 2.5 Receptions
Nick Giffen: Atlanta plays a high rate of Cover 6, which is intended to blanket the top wideout when he's lined up on the weak side. That should funnel more targets to Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker, and away from Jakobi Meyers.
Tucker has second-most targets vs Cover 6, despite running the fourth-most routes against it, making it his highest target rate per routes run.
The Falcons also allow the league's highest completion percentage and have a low pressure rate, which means there will be fewer quarterback scrambles. Desmond Ridder scrambled 7.2% of the time against pressure, compared to 3% without pressure last season.
Additionally, Ridder targets Tucker at the highest rate of the three quarterbacks that Tucker has played with this season.
Drake London Anytime Touchdown
Gilles Gallant: Drake London has amassed 46 targets over the past four games and is second in the NFL with 20 red-zone targets.
He also leads the Falcons with four touchdowns against man coverage, so this should be a good matchup for him to get into the end zone.
Kirk Cousins Under 238.5 Passing Yards
Sean Koerner: Coming out of the bye, Kirk Cousins has had a brutal two-game stretch in which he's thrown six interceptions and no touchdowns. However, he should bounce back this week against a Raiders' defense that'll be without Maxx Corsby.
We want the Falcons to have a run-heavy game plan and get an early lead. It’s totally fine if Cousins is throwing the ball (efficiently) early (i.e. a touchdown pass to Drake London) to get us into a positive game script and also set up Tre Tucker with a trailing, pass-heavy one.
The Falcons have run the fifth-fewest plays with a lead of eight or more this season. Over those 38 plays, they’ve been the most run heavy, only dropping back to pass 23.7% of the time.
Based on tonight's 6-point spread, I'm projecting the Falcons to be up be eight or more for 21% of the game (based off the average percentage of snaps for teams that were 6-point favorites). That means this could be a game in which Falcons lean on the run a lot more that they usually do.
In turn, I like Cousins to stay Under 238.5 passing yards.
