Since the dawn of gambling, the dream has been to turn a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., all offer the same appeal.
Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can add same-game parlays. So, we have NFL parlay picks for the Saturday games.
NFL Parlay Picks: Divisional Round Bet
- Texans +8.5 (-115)
- Patrick Mahomes Under 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Jayden Daniels 60+ Rushing Yards (+105)
- Jared Goff Under 272.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Full Saturday Divisional Round Parlay Odds: +1056 | $10 Bet Wins $105.60
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. The complex correlations among the legs make fair odds nearly impossible to calculate. However, parlays are fun. Much like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
You could make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which has hit twice this season, we're looking for bigger payouts.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner each day, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Saturday Divisional Round parlay on DraftKings.
Texans +8.5 (-115)
I'm a bit surprised seeing such a big spread for the Chiefs, considering how they've played this season. Despite their NFL-best 15-2 record, their average margin of victory this season was right around seven points.
That included two games against the Raiders plus games against the Panthers and Browns. When playing better teams, they often barely squeaked out close wins.
Now they get a rematch against a Houston team they beat by exactly eight points the last time around. While the Chiefs having effectively a double bye week (they rested starters in Week 18) means they're healthy, they'll also likely need some time to get back into rhythm.
On the other hand, Houston looked to be firing on all cylinders during last week's 32-12 dismantling of the Chargers.
I don't think that's enough for the Texans to win this game, but keeping it within a single score is entirely possible.
Patrick Mahomes Under 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Mahomes has beaten this line just four times all season, or 25% of the time in his games played.
While one of those came against the Texans, my guess is that was mostly just variance. Houston ranked middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks over the course of the season.
Mahomes' rushing production typically comes from scrambles rather than designed runs, and the moderately favored Chiefs probably don't need to drop Mahomes back an extraordinary number of times in this one.
Plus, he could always kneel his way back under this mark if Kansas City ends up in victory formation, which is fairly likely given the spread here.
Jayden Daniels 60+ Rushing Yards (+105)
On the other hand, Detroit has significantly boosted opposing quarterback rushing production this season. They ranked fourth overall in terms of rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks, despite not facing too many of the league's better rushers at the position this season.
Depending on where you draw the line, the two true elite rushing QBs they've faced this season — Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson — both cleared 60 yards against the Lions. Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray both ran for about 10 more yards than their season averages against the Lions as well. Considering Daniels averages a bit more than 52 rushing yards per game, that's a good sign for him.
As opposed to Mahomes, Daniels' Commanders are also heavy underdogs. That means more drop backs and more opportunities for scrambles. Against a man-heavy Lions defensive scheme, those also have a solid shot at turning into big gains.
Jared Goff Under 272.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The corollary to Washington having more drop backs is Detroit having less, as a positive game script for the Lions should lead to an uptick in rushing rate. While Goff has cleared this line in three of the four games without running back David Montgomery (counting the contest he exited early), Montgomery is expected to return for the playoffs.
Prior to that, Goff went over this line just twice in a seven-game span. Our projections have a median of 259.5 and a mean of 263 for Goff, both of which give a bit of wiggle room here.
Plus, DraftKings is slightly off most books in the market here, with their line set one yard higher.
Full Saturday Divisional Round Parlay Odds: +1056 | $10 Bet Wins $105.60
